Who owns the NIle?

Geeska Africa Online: After years of conflict about control over the Nile, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan have now apparently chosen the path of co-operation over open dispute. Politicians are demonstrating unity, but observers warn that not all differences have been resolved. Many residents of the Ethiopian capital are well equipped with candles, generators and an ample supply of patience in order to cope with the regular power outages in Addis Ababa. During a recent state visit, Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi experienced first hand a power blackout that lasted a number of hours. It was almost as if the Ethiopian capital wanted to demonstrate to him the urgent need for electricity from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).The gargantuan project, located on the upper course of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, has been a source of tension between the neighbouring states for years. The reason for this is that Egypt is also heavily dependent on the river. In 2013, Sisi’s predecessor, Mohamed Morsi, even indirectly threatened Ethiopia with war out of fear his country could suffer a water shortage.

For the past few years, the government in Addis Ababa has been ambitiously pursuing the construction of the largest hydroelectric project ever to be built in Africa, located in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia near the border with Sudan.

With a population of around 90 million, Ethiopia is the second most populous country on the continent after Nigeria. This aspiring economic power aims to satisfy its energy requirements through the construction of a series of dams along the Blue Nile. The centrepiece of this policy is the over 3-billion-euro GERD project, which upon completion should produce 6,000 megawatts of electricity – as much as five nuclear power plants. Ethiopia thereby aims to achieve greater independence from crude oil imports and simultaneously provide a stimulus for its emerging industrial sector. In addition, the government in Addis Ababa plans to alleviate its chronic shortage of foreign currency by selling up to 2,000 megawatts of energy to its African neighbours, including Egypt. Although the first supply agreements have already been signed, many conflicts remain unresolved.

Some 160 million people live in the Nile Basin. The desert nation of Egypt fears that upon completion, GERD will quite literally leave Egyptian farmers high and dry with nothing to irrigate their fields, claiming that once the 1,680-square-kilometre reservoir has been flooded, water will evaporate in the heat. Egypt already experienced something similar with the opening of the Aswan Dam in 1971. Egypt and Sudan have even invoked colonial treaties dating back to 1929 and 1959, which guarantee both countries an almost 90 per cent share of the water flow from the Blue Nile and the White Nile as well as ensuring the right of veto over any construction plans....

The falls of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, shot by A. Davey, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Food security alarm for east, central Africa

IRIN: Some 20 million people are facing acute food insecurity in eastern and central Africa, with most of them being at “crisis” and “emergency” levels, according to aid agencies. This figure compares unfavorably with 15.8 million people in July 2013.  The affected countries include Somalia, Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Central Africa Republic (CAR), Sudan, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Tanzania.

“The overall nutrition situation in the region has deteriorated precipitously and, according to survey results, the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) levels are higher than 20 percent, exceeding the World Health Organization’s emergency threshold of 15 percent, especially in parts of South Sudan, CAR, Somalia and northern Kenya,” said the East and Central Africa Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), a multi-stakeholder regional forum chaired by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

FSNWG warned that the situation could deteriorate further in the absence of quick action.  “FSNWG strongly believes that in the absence of an increased and immediate multi-sectoral response, the food and nutrition status of affected populations is likely to deteriorate further.”...

Kenya food aid, image by USAID

Still no help for flood victims in Sudan’s capital

Radio Dabanga (Sudan): Some 18 people have died and 184 sustained injuries as a result of the torrential rains and the ensuing floods in Sudan on Wednesday. In Omdurman, people have not received support by the authorities so far.

According to a report of the Federal Ministry of Health issued on Saturday, the heavy rainfall affected 22 localities in eight Sudanese states. 18 people died and 184 were injured. Six cows drowned. About 6,100 households were affected. 3,037 houses collapsed, and 2,753 houses were partially damaged. 2,106 toilets were destroyed.

The River Nile State in northern Sudan was hit the hardest, the Ministry said, with 1,972 households affected. In North Kordofan, 1,170 families were affected. The Ministry of Interior Affairs stated that the situation does not require declaring Sudan a “disaster area”.

In Khartoum State, in particular Omdurman, the sister-city of Khartoum, has been affected. Hundreds of victims are living in the open after their homes collapsed.  They are complaining that four days have passed since the floods wiped away their homes, and they have not seen help from the authorities so far....

Torrential rains destroy hundreds of shelters in South Darfur

AllAfrica.com via Radio Dabanga: Heavy rainfall in South Darfur on Saturday destroyed hundreds of homes, especially in Kalma, Otash, El Salam, and Dereig camps for the displaced.

A sheikh of Otash camp reported to Radio Dabanga that the heavy rains on Saturday morning, lasting from 1am until 12am, destroyed more than 1,500 shelters. "The rains and the ensuing floods swept the shelters and belongings of the people, and spoiled the food. Hundreds of families are now living in the open without shelter, food, or medicines.

The sheikh urged relief organisations to accelerate the provision of aid, food, tents, and plastic sheets to the affected.

In Kalma camp, hundreds of shelters and dozens of toilets collapsed too. Hussein Abu Sharati, the spokesman for the Association of Displaced People and Refugees of Darfur pointed out to Radio Dabanga that about 50 percent of the shelters are damaged. "The floods prevented us from making a detailed inventory of the losses."

"The more than 3,000 newly displaced families who are living in the open, lost the little amounts of food in their possession", he added...

A Darfur refugee camp in Chad, shot in 2005 by Mark Knobil, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Sudan's worst floods for 25 years leave 500,000 facing destruction and disease

Mark Tran in AllAfrica.com via Guardian Global Development Network: Forty-eight people have been killed and more than 500,000 affected by the worst floods in Sudan in quarter of a century.

The region around the capital, Khartoum, was particularly badly hit, with at least 15,000 homes destroyed and thousands of others damaged. Across Sudan, at least 25,000 homes are no longer habitable. A UN official described the situation as a disaster.

The flooding, caused by continuous rains, has damaged public buildings, including schools, clinics, offices, shops, markets and water and sanitation facilities. Roads have been inundated, disrupting transport.

One of the major health worries is the collapse of more than 53,000 latrines; the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned of an increase in malaria cases in the past two weeks.

WHO and Unicef, the UN agency for children, are supporting Sudanese authorities and national NGOs to run 50 emergency health clinics. The centres will be open for two months in eight states - Khartoum, White Nile, El Gezira, River Nile, Northern, Blue Nile, North Darfur and South Darfur...

Khartoum and environs via satellite

Floodwaters displace over 50,000 people in Sudan's Payinjiar county

Bonifacio Taban Kuich in AllAfrica.com via Sudan Tribune: Eleven people are reported to have died after heavy flooding hit Payinjiar county, officials told Sudan Tribune after a return visit to the affected side. More than 56,000 people are believed to be victims of the flood and in need of emergency assistance.

The teams who went in to the field comprised of ministers from Unity state and top officials from the national government which, including Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC) chief Peter Lam who flew to area to assess conditions on the ground and damage to affected communities. State minister of information and communication Nyaliep John Dak told Sudan Tribune on Wednesday that flood victims were facing extremely harsh conditions.

"We actually went there to know how the rain affected the people there ... they are really in trouble, the flood affected them too much [and] there is not any space which is dry all over; the spaces were full of water", she said.

Dak said the risk of snake bites and an outbreak of waterborne disease was also a major concern for those in flood-affected areas. She says most farms were underwater and crops were destroyed before the yielding period...

UN, partners assisting hundreds of thousands affected by floods in Sudan

AllAfrica.com via UN News Centre: The United Nations and its partners in Sudan are providing emergency support hundreds of thousands of people that have been affected by flooding since the start of the month, the world body said today.

According to Government estimates, as many as 530,000 people have been affected by the floods triggered by heavy rains across the country, and at least 74,000 houses have been damaged or destroyed by the rapidly rising waters. The area surrounding the capital, Khartoum, has been hardest hit, with some 180,000 people affected.

Emergency water and sanitation, health items, food and other support is being provided by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), as well as civil society and volunteer organizations, in coordination with Sudanese authorities.

Over 52,000 people have received household items, and water trucks being run by the Khartoum State Water Corporation and the Médecins Sans Frontières are reaching about 110,000 people each day, OCHA said in a news release. While rains at this time of the year are common, they have been heavier than average this year, having a particularly serious impact in 16 out of the 18 states in the country.

The Sudanese health ministry and the World Health Organization (WHO) are also monitoring the situation closely as Government and aid officials have raised concerns that stagnating water in and around the city could lead to outbreaks of water-borne diseases...

This astronaut photograph of Merowe Dam in Sudan illustrates the current extent of the reservoir, which has been filling behind the dam since the final spill gate was closed in 2008.

Floods affect 500,000 in Sudan

AllAfrica.com via Radio Dabanga: The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) announced in its latest report on Friday that 500,000 people have been affected by floods in Sudan so far. The figure was provided by Sudan's Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC).

HAC estimates that a total of 106,000 families (about 530,000 people) in 16 States across Sudan (plus Abyei) have been "affected", the report reads. "The number of flood-affected people across Sudan has gradually increased due to continuous rains in some areas and new information being made available ... [HAC estimates] that 74,000 houses were either totally destroyed or damaged by the floods."

These are, however, initial estimates and the figures will be confirmed as more detailed assessments take place, it was stated.

"Following an initial lack of clarity over who was responsible within the Government for coordinating the floods response with international organisations, on 18 August HAC activated a Floods Task Force. HAC called on designated agencies to participate in the Task Force, which will meet daily until further notice and report to the Government's High Council for Civil Defence," OCHA says.

The OCHA bulletin states that Khartoum is the hardest hit state in the country, with HAC figures indicating that an estimated 36,000 houses were either totally destroyed or damaged by the floods....

The Nile at Khartoum, shot by WT-shared) Tiagox2, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license

Sudan's worst floods for 25 years leave 500,000 facing destruction and disease

Mark Tran in the "globaldevelopment" blog in Guardian (UK): Forty-eight people have been killed and more than 500,000 affected by the worst floods in Sudan in quarter of a century. The region around the capital, Khartoum, was particularly badly hit, with at least 15,000 homes destroyed and thousands of others damaged. Across Sudan, at least 25,000 homes are no longer habitable. A UN official described the situation as a disaster.

The flooding, caused by continuous rains, has damaged public buildings, including schools, clinics, offices, shops, markets and water and sanitation facilities. Roads have been inundated, disrupting transport.

One of the major health worries is the collapse of more than 53,000 latrines; the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned of an increase in malaria cases in the past two weeks....

From NASA in 2005, a satellite image of Khartoum. The cities Omdurman (left), Bahri (top right) and Khartoum (bottom right) divided through the Nile river.

Sudan struggles with worst floods in decades

Lisa Schlein in Voice of America: The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies is appealing for nearly $1 million to provide emergency aid to thousands of flood victims in Sudan. These floods, considered to be the worst in decades, have taken the lives of at least 36 people and injured more than 90.

These are the worst floods to have hit Sudan since 1988. Early this month, heavy rains fell in the states of Khartoum and River Nile, causing flash floods and extensive damage there and in seven other states.

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies reports about 130,000 people are affected by the flooding. It says infrastructure and livelihoods have been ruined. It says 14,000 houses have been destroyed. Many of the mud houses have been washed away, while others are submerged by water.

Red Cross spokeswoman Jessica Sallabank says about 80,000 people are displaced and without shelter. "We have reports of people camping out on the roads. They have moved to higher ground or they are lodging with people. So, we do have a humanitarian emergency on our hands. More rain is forecast. Water levels of the Blue Nile and the White Nile Rivers are still rising. So, we are concerned that this flooding could get worse, which is why international assistance is now very welcome," said Sallabank.

The hardest hit areas include the states of Khartoum, Gazira, Northern and River Nile. The Red Cross appeal aims to assist 35,000 people over the next six months. Priorities are to provide emergency shelter and relief items and emergency health care...

Khartoum's roadside refugees call for help after floods

Space Daily via AFP: It looks as if an earthquake, not a flood, hit the Khartoum district of Sharq ElNeel.
 Heavy roofs have collapsed in on themselves, crushing what was below, while the bricks in less sturdy homes have simply tumbled down, forming piles of rubble.

Two weeks after the worst flooding in years hit Sudan's capital region, killing about 30 and affecting more than 84,000, ankle-deep muddy water still covers this district east of the Blue Nile river.

Sharq ElNeel is one of the worst-hit areas. "Now this street is my home," says Jamaal Hamad, one of dozens of roadside refugees who have set up camp in this mixed residential and farming area.

They have carried beds through the water, attached pieces of wood and cloth, and built crude shelters next to the busy two-lane paved street.

"Our house was destroyed and we live under the sun now. We even lost all our furniture," says Ali Mohammed, a labourer who earns 600 pounds a month (about $84, 63 euros). "So I cannot save money for rebuilding. We really need help from the government and others," he says….

Khartoum from space, via NASA

Rains, floods cause 11 deaths, many injuries, destruction across Sudan

AllAfrica.com via Radio Dabanga (Hilversum): The heavy rainfall in North and South Darfur states has caused injuries and displacements to dozens of people, destroying thousands of houses and sanitary facilities. According to a humanitarian agency estimates, almost 100,000 people are affected across the country.

On Tuesday, floods caused by heavy rains reportedly injured 50 children in North Darfur, destroyed 1,000 houses and a number of shops. Witnesses told Radio Dabanga 50 donkeys, several cattle and some chickens were killed, and essential food and goods destroyed.

Tuesday's rain reportedly started at about 1pm, and continued unabated until 4pm. The witnesses said that the injured children were transported to the Unicef hospital for treatment.

The sources noted that the camps for the displaced were hardest hit, with many families no living in the open. On Friday downpours led to the collapse of 2,500 houses and a number of toilets in Salam camp in North Darfur. They appealed to humanitarian organisations and state and local authorities in El Fasher to provide shelter, food and cover for those affected. On Sunday evening, rains in South Darfur state caused injuries among a number of displaced people at Kalma, Dreige, Attash and El Salam camps...

Flag of the Darfur Liberation Front

At least 38 people killed in heavy rains across Sudan

AllAfrica.com via the Sudan Tribune: The floods and rains that hit different areas in Sudan over the past two days have lead to the death of at least 38 people and injured dozens amid widespread anger over what is perceived as an inadequate government response.

The pro-government al-Sudani newspaper said that the deaths were due to drowning, house collapses and electric shocks that resulted from the floods and rain particularly in the localities of East Nile, Khartoum, Karari and Ombadda; all of which are part of the capital Khartoum. The governor of Khartoum Abdulrahman al-Khidir toured his state by helicopter to inspect the damage especially in the East Nile locality.

Meanwhile, hundreds of protestors demonstrated in Sudan's twin capital of Omdurman at the "Libya Market" area to decry the failure of the government to deal with the heavy rains and floods with some calling for the toppling the regime and others demanding punishment of those responsible for the deterioration of basic services. But anti-riot police forces surrounded the "Libya Market" and attacked the protesters with batons and tear gas. They also arrested a number of demonstrators.

Rains and floods also swept through large areas of Wadi Halfa and Merowe localities in north Sudan which led to the collapse of more than 200 houses there....

Nile dam project a hydropower hope, but regional sore point

E.G. Woldegebriel in AlertNet: Ethiopia has begun construction of a 6,000 megawatt (MW) hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile river, a move that has been greeted enthusiastically by many Ethiopians but that is causing concern in the downstream nations of Sudan and Egypt.

The project, which is scheduled to take six and a half years to complete, is being managed by the state-owned power utility company, Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo). The dam is being built about 900 km (560 miles) north-east of the capital, Addis Ababa, and just 40 km (25 miles) from the Sudanese border.

Ethiopia’s government hopes to capitalize on the energy potential of a river that is revered by the Ethiopian population but that until now has not been significantly exploited to feed the country’s growing need for electric power. 

Ethiopia is the source of the Blue Nile, and its territory contributes up to 86 percent of the river’s water. The Blue Nile in turn is responsible for more than half of the water in the Nile, the world’s longest river system. The other main source, the White Nile, originates on the Ugandan side of Lake Victoria.

...Despite its popularity among Ethiopia’s population, the dam project has caused consternation in neighbouring Sudan as well as in Egypt, both downstream countries that rely upon the Nile for almost all their water and fear the dam will cause a reduction in water available to them. The new dam will eventually create a lake containing more than 60 billion cubic metres of water, twice as much as Lake Tana, Ethiopia’s largest body of water. There are also concerns about the potential environmental impact of the dam...

The Blue Nile flowing through Khartoum, via NASA

One year on: Building resilience in the Horn of Africa

Tierney Smith in Responding to Climate Change:  A year on from the Horn of Africa disaster and two good rainy seasons have helped to relieve the pressure and aid recovery in the region. But there is an underlying feeling of helplessness for communities in the region living at the mercy of possible future dry periods.

With the potential of another dry spell always just around the corner, the efforts of NGOs and Aid Agencies is moving away from emergency relief to building resilience in the region. They want to ensure a similar event will not have the dire consequences – an estimated 50,000 and 100,000 deaths – it had in Africa last year.

“Memories about the last drought are almost erased because we have received two very good seasons consecutively,” says Abdul Haro from Practical Action. “But the long rains in April to June were below optimal levels and should the short rains expected in October and November fail, then there will be trouble.

“Currently there is plenty of pasture and water pans have water, although recently a few areas have started reporting water stress for humans.”

Drought is a complex phenomenon, caused by multiple contributing factors. It is still impossible for scientists to fully associate one extreme event to climate change. But scientists agree that the chances of these events heighten with advancing climate instability....

P. Heinlein: Somali Refugees Face Harsh, Uncertain Fate in Ethiopian Camps. VOA News, photo gallery, public domain

Sudan's climate change adaptation plan; building capacities and preventing risks

Haffiya Elyas in Sudan Vision: ....Due to the importance of climate change, the Supreme Council of Environment and Natural Resources is going to hold a workshop Sunday titled: “The National Climate Change Adaptation Plan: General Framework and Technical Aspects” in the Banking and Finance Academy conference hall.

Studies and reports prepared by all states regarding climate change will be presented at the workshop to discuss the options of adaptation. The participants will also deliberate on and conduct consultation concerning procuring the information required for the preparation of the national plan.

Technical committee coordinators and members from all the states in addition to executive bodies’ employees, research institutions personnel, and civil society activists will take part in the workshop.

Deputy Coordinator of the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan said that the workshop aims at getting people acquainted with the project and discussing the scientific aspects and steps needed for preparing the national plan, in addition to that it aims at contributing to the efforts of capacity building of the members of state committees in the field of assessing the impact of climate change and the options of dealing with it.

The Deputy Coordinator said that the final outcome of the project is to reduce poverty among the most vulnerable groups and to realize economic growth, indicating that the plan targets the sectors which are most affected by climate change. The plan has 7 major focusing pivots all revolving around developmental planning of the country, a plan to be executed by the concerned ministries....

Nile Basin states appeal to UN over failure to access climate funds

Walter Menya in the East African: Ten African countries have appealed to the United Nations, funding agencies and the developed nations to eliminate bottlenecks to access to climate change adaptation funds. Convening in Kigali, Rwanda for the 3rd Nile Basin Development Forum from October 26 to 28, ministers in charge of water resources from the Nile Basin countries underscored the need to remove the bureaucracy that has slowed down access to the billions of dollars in the Climate Change Fund for developing nations.

The forum, attended by ministers, lawmakers, researchers and water experts under the theme “Climate Change and its Implications for Sustainable Development and Cooperation in the Nile Basin” also called on the African governments to establish national policies and initiatives for climate change adaptation that would not rely on donor funds.

The 16th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, Mexico, last year established a yearly fund, potentially worth up to $100 billion to help countries adapt to climate change. However, the participants from the Nile riparian states of Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, complained about inability to access the funds...

Map of the White Nile and the Blue Nile by Roke, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Egypt's new democrats ready to defend Nile

David Arnold in Voice of America: In the beginning, Egypt was the Nile. That could now change, as Egypt, Sudan and the countries that supply the Nile’s waters face new politics, economic development, skyrocketing demographics and climate change. Egypt confronts at least a half a dozen other African countries that have for generations delivered their waters to Egypt’s Nile. What historically appeared to be Egypt’s birthright has now become a privilege they must negotiate with their upstream neighbors. It is a major issue in Egypt’s upcoming elections.

“Some of the political parties are talking about the Nile agreement,” said Dr. Mahmoud Abu-Zeid, “but all of them are talking about water security, which means no disturbance of the historic rights and that countries should not implement projects which would affect our uses of the Nile in Egypt.” And that is what is at stake for Egypt as a newly elected government in Cairo will define its role in a new regional initiative that will decide the future of the Nile and its beneficiaries.

...Population has driven much of the new politics in the Nile Basin. “Water doesn’t increase, but the population does,” said Richard Tutwiler, a research professor at the American University in Cairo and director of school’s Desert Development Center. In the 1950s, when Egypt and Sudan decided how much of the Nile they needed, there were about 22 million Egyptians and 9 million Sudanese and 18 million Ethiopians.

Today, Egypt has a population of 82 million, Sudan has a population of 45 million, and Ethiopia has a population of 85 million. Between these three countries the population has increased four times and in recent years Egypt has succeeded in increasing by 25 percent its inventory of farmlands by irrigating deserts through extensive and expensive canal systems...

The Merowe High Dam in Sudan, shot by Sudani, Wikimedia Commons

Sudan: Water secure but Egypt worries over South Sudan

Bikyamasr: The Sudanese government attempted to reassure Egypt over water resources in light of the recent independence of South Sudan. Sudanese Information Minister Sana Hamad al-Awadi said that Khartoum does not believe South Sudan will go against international agreements that give Egypt the lion’s share of Nile River water.

Al-Awadi continued to say that the South is not needed to address the situation, pointing to continued coordination between Sudan and Egypt on Nile Basin deals. The Sudanese minister said that the water, which comes through the White Nile from the south, “does not represent a problem for the Republic of Sudan, because it represents about 14 percent of the water coming through the south to Sudan” and ultimately Egypt.

However, with the infant new country, Egypt has a number of worries that South Sudan, which now sees itself in control of much of the Nile water and its path toward Egypt, could join the opposition to Cairo and Khartoum over maintaining what many upstream nations say is an “unjust” water-sharing agreement.

“We are certainly concerned over the future of our water security, but we must give South Sudan time to see what is right,” said Amr Hassan, an environment ministry official. Egypt has already attempted to throw some carrots to Juba through infrastructure projects, including at least four electricity stations.

Cairo has repeatedly refused to sign onto any convention without assurances by other Nile Basin Initiative members that the country would not lose the 55.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water they are allowed to use and demanded a veto power over any projects implemented upstream in southern Nile nations....

Map of South Sudan from the CIA's World Factbook, July 12, 2011

Sudan drought breeds violence

Eliza Griswold in the Daily Beast: To talk about war in Africa—in Sudan and Somalia, to name two countries now battling a horrendous drought—means talking about the weather. Last week, the United Nations declared that the drought striking much of Africa’s Horn, the knobby spit of land off the continent’s east coast, is the worst on record for the past 60 years. The seasonal rains have failed for at least the third year in a row, and there’s no chance that things will get better until at least 2012.

At least 17 million people are facing famine; one out of four children is currently battling starvation. It’s tough to say, but it’s true that this never-ending litany of African catastrophes makes it difficult for us to pay attention.

So, beyond the faces of starving children, beyond statistics so mind-boggling they leave most of us feeling overwhelmed and defeated, let’s consider the science that binds drought to conflict. It’s no accident these battlegrounds lie where they do: both Sudan and Somalia lie within a zone of extreme weather--where the dry air of the northern hemisphere collides with the wetter air of the south.

This zone, which moves north or south of the equator, depending on the season, is called the inter-tropical convergence zone—some scientists call the ITCZ, the “itch” for short. Inside the itch, extreme weather—both flooding and drought—seem to be intensifying. Most scientists believe this is one effect of climate change.

No question, weather is one cause of war. As the earth grows warmer, and rains are no longer dependable, farmers no longer know when to plant their crops. Centuries-old cycles are changing, and no one knows how to predict them. As a result, crops fail and that causes famine....

The Nubian Desert in Sudan, from NASA