Eliza Griswold in the Daily Beast: To talk about war in Africa—in Sudan and Somalia, to name two countries now battling a horrendous drought—means talking about the weather. Last week, the United Nations declared that the drought striking much of Africa’s Horn, the knobby spit of land off the continent’s east coast, is the worst on record for the past 60 years. The seasonal rains have failed for at least the third year in a row, and there’s no chance that things will get better until at least 2012.At least 17 million people are facing famine; one out of four children is currently battling starvation. It’s tough to say, but it’s true that this never-ending litany of African catastrophes makes it difficult for us to pay attention.
So, beyond the faces of starving children, beyond statistics so mind-boggling they leave most of us feeling overwhelmed and defeated, let’s consider the science that binds drought to conflict. It’s no accident these battlegrounds lie where they do: both Sudan and Somalia lie within a zone of extreme weather--where the dry air of the northern hemisphere collides with the wetter air of the south.
This zone, which moves north or south of the equator, depending on the season, is called the inter-tropical convergence zone—some scientists call the ITCZ, the “itch” for short. Inside the itch, extreme weather—both flooding and drought—seem to be intensifying. Most scientists believe this is one effect of climate change.
No question, weather is one cause of war. As the earth grows warmer, and rains are no longer dependable, farmers no longer know when to plant their crops. Centuries-old cycles are changing, and no one knows how to predict them. As a result, crops fail and that causes famine....
The Nubian Desert in Sudan, from NASA
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