Hurricanes, floods, fires ... no worries?

Kathy Marks in Herald Scotland: As the final splutter of Cyclone Yasi triggered thunderstorms and flash floods in Melbourne this weekend, Australians were wondering what nature will throw at them next. A monster category-five storm, Yasi smashed into north Queensland just weeks after the state endured the worst floods in its history.

…While Australia – the world’s driest inhabited continent – may have had more than its share of natural disasters lately, climate scientists point out that it has always been a country of extremes. However, they also say that those extremes are, in all likelihood, being exacerbated by global warming, and they warn that the havoc wreaked here recently represents a snapshot of the future, not just in Australia but around the world.

…“A lot of people are putting their head in the sand and saying these are all one-offs,” said Edward Blakely, professor of urban policy at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. “How many one- offs does it take to make a trend?”

…“The temperatures in the Pacific are anomalously warm, and the only explanation we have is in part a global warming signal,” said Professor Andy Pitman, of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales. He adds: “The scale of the flooding, the intensity and size of this cyclone, and all the other events going on around the world with increasing frequency – there’s good evidence to suggest they are real-world examples of what the climate scientists have been predicting for some decades.”

…In Australia, while there is, understandably, much hand-wringing about recent events, there is next to no debate about the role of climate change. Visiting north Queensland last week, the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, declared: “We will rebuild from the floods, we will rebuild from the cyclone, we will rebuild from anything nature throws at us.”

It was a response that dismayed professor Pitman. “There’s an assumption that we can engineer our environment to be safe from whatever nature throws at us,” he said. “I think these are flawed assumptions.”

Cyclone Yasi on February 2, 2011