Thursday, October 9, 2008

US seasonal drought outlook

From the National Weather Service: The tropical weather systems that affected the CONUS have chipped away at the edges of the drought areas over Texas and the southeast. Unfortunately the heaviest precipitation from the tropical systems missed the core drought areas for both of these regions. In general the new drought outlook is more pesimistic with regard to the probabilitiy of improvement over the southeast mainly due to the climatological reduction in tropical storm activity over the Atlantic for the upcoming forecast period. The decrease in tropical activity also leads to a more pessimistic forecast of improvement for Texas. The drought areas over the northern Plains/Upper Missisippi Valley should see some relief during the first seven days of the period especially over the southern portions. In addition the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts show a tilt of the odds towards above normal precipitation for these areas. Forecasts of precipitation in the short range, and climatological considerations suggest improvement for the drought area over northern California, especially along the coast. The area of drought over southern California is expected to persist.

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