Saturday, February 9, 2013
Staged photos and real facts--a Carbon Based original
What counts as evidence? The question occurred to me while reading Errol Morris's Believing is Seeing: Observations on the Mysteries of Photography. Morris explores images from the Roger Fenton's photos of the Valley of the Shadow of Death during the Crimean War, to torture photos from Abu Ghraib, to an ambrotype found in the hand of a dead Union soldier at Gettysburg.
He suggests that photographs, like other "evidence," are often ambiguous, sometimes maddeningly so. In a chapter called "Photography and Reality (Captioning, Propaganda, and Fraud)," he dwells on a controversial image from the 1930s that has a an analogy to the subject of climate change today.
FDR created the Farm Security Administration in 1937 to alleviate rural poverty. The FSA's photo department employed many titans of photography, among them Walker Evans, Dorothea Lange, and Arthur Rothstein, to document the farmers' plight. Conservatives hated the FSA to begin with, and the photography department was the object of particular scorn.
On one assignment, Rothstein took several photos of a cow skull on dry soil in South Dakota, and the FSA released it to the media. The Washington Post's caption read, "From Pennington, South Dakota, comes this photo of a bleached skull on a sun-baked grasslass plain giving solemn warning that here is a land the desert threatens." (The FSA's own caption was less didactic, by the way.) Please note, I wasn't able to find the exact image of the skull that appeared n the Post-- shown here is another image from the same take.
The New Deal's enemies thundered that the photo had been staged, a staging that was evidence of the fraud behind the effort to bring relief to poor farmers. And indeed, Rothstein had moved the cow skull ten feet from where he found it. Accordingly, they declared, that exceeded the bounds of documentary integrity.
Morris says, "What makes these accusations of photo fakery utterly perverse is the claim that they unfairly portrayed a drought.... But the Dakotas were experiencing a severe drought." The Dust Bowl was real, and a large part of the country was in a state of ecological and agricultural collapse. But the conservatives reacted as if one piece of photographic stagecraft -- arranging props for the camera -- negated the reality. The Fargo paper and the conservatives in general reacted so viscerally because of their seething political suspicions of government reforms and measures that might crimp business activity.
The same suspicion, stoked by fossil fuel propaganda, distorts climate controversies today.
Another tacit assumption seems to have been present, too, one that might be called crackpot empiricism, or the positivist delusion. This is the belief that empirical observations alone are the foundation of all rational inquiry. Theory and observation are totally separate, and theories must rest on a base of observations. In keeping with this foundationalist outlook, the conservatives of the 1930s and the denialists also seem to believe that if one piece of evidence, one observation, doesn't hold up for any reason, then their enemy's entire edifice collapses.
Much of 20th century philosophy involved a detailed critique of this delusion. Morris alludes to this critique in a subsequent chapter of Believing is Seeing, citing a 1958 book by Norwood Russell Hanson, Patterns of Discovery, which countered the positivist delusion by insisting that observations are theory-laden. Or, as Morris points out, "Our beliefs do not determine what is true or false. They do not determine objective reality. But they can determine what we 'see.'" Indeed, one of the themes of Believing is Seeing is a tussle with the positivist delusion -- observation is not as simple as it looks, and we bring our theoretical point of view to everything we observe.
In practice, incompatible observations can put a strain on theories, but most theories can accommodate a surprising amount of divergence before they begin to get into trouble. They are baggy and loose in this sense.
The early fear was that this looseness opened the door too wide to relativism and unreason. The work of Karl Popper, Thomas Kuhn and Imre Lakatos among many others energetically investigated how to choose rationally among competing theories. The upshot is that the theory-laden nature of facts does not plunge us into a state of relativistic undecidability, where there are no facts, only competing points of view. Instead of something with a foundation, knowledge is a network where successful theories and observations must strongly cohere.
Decades of philosophical arguments have sharpened the sense that although observations are theory laden, some theories are still better from others. Reality begins to emerge when many observations in one field as well as in other sciences provide strong corroboration for the same theory. Empirical observations of the climate, for example, steadily agree with the theories of atmospheric chemistry, physics, and a long list of other disciplines. It all points to climate change as a real issue with a human cause. Observations are not solitary, but part of a much larger group. When many squadrons of facts tend to corroborate a theory, that's signficant.
So the question of whose science to believe can be readily answered. For believers in anthropogenic climate change, a long list of major scientific bodies, national and international, regularly affirm the consensus view of climate change. They marshal a large army of facts to support their case.
On the denialist side, a squad of often discredited quacks maintains the opposite. Their numbers are small and their arguments are regularly refuted, but their struggle continues on life support from hundreds of millions of fossil fuel dollars. They see themselves as the teenagers in Red Dawn, singlehandedly fighting off a Soviet invasion of Colorado.
As citizens, we're often called upon to make decisions based on scientific data that we don't personally understand. We wind up having to accept some things on the authority of people who know more. And which evidence will you believe? In the climate change controversies, which science you accept seems to depend on politics. But on the denialist side, you have to ignore a whole lot more evidence to mainain your point of view.
Whether or not the cow's skull was moved, there was a drought in 1937.
He suggests that photographs, like other "evidence," are often ambiguous, sometimes maddeningly so. In a chapter called "Photography and Reality (Captioning, Propaganda, and Fraud)," he dwells on a controversial image from the 1930s that has a an analogy to the subject of climate change today.
FDR created the Farm Security Administration in 1937 to alleviate rural poverty. The FSA's photo department employed many titans of photography, among them Walker Evans, Dorothea Lange, and Arthur Rothstein, to document the farmers' plight. Conservatives hated the FSA to begin with, and the photography department was the object of particular scorn.
On one assignment, Rothstein took several photos of a cow skull on dry soil in South Dakota, and the FSA released it to the media. The Washington Post's caption read, "From Pennington, South Dakota, comes this photo of a bleached skull on a sun-baked grasslass plain giving solemn warning that here is a land the desert threatens." (The FSA's own caption was less didactic, by the way.) Please note, I wasn't able to find the exact image of the skull that appeared n the Post-- shown here is another image from the same take.
The New Deal's enemies thundered that the photo had been staged, a staging that was evidence of the fraud behind the effort to bring relief to poor farmers. And indeed, Rothstein had moved the cow skull ten feet from where he found it. Accordingly, they declared, that exceeded the bounds of documentary integrity.
Morris says, "What makes these accusations of photo fakery utterly perverse is the claim that they unfairly portrayed a drought.... But the Dakotas were experiencing a severe drought." The Dust Bowl was real, and a large part of the country was in a state of ecological and agricultural collapse. But the conservatives reacted as if one piece of photographic stagecraft -- arranging props for the camera -- negated the reality. The Fargo paper and the conservatives in general reacted so viscerally because of their seething political suspicions of government reforms and measures that might crimp business activity.
The same suspicion, stoked by fossil fuel propaganda, distorts climate controversies today.
Another tacit assumption seems to have been present, too, one that might be called crackpot empiricism, or the positivist delusion. This is the belief that empirical observations alone are the foundation of all rational inquiry. Theory and observation are totally separate, and theories must rest on a base of observations. In keeping with this foundationalist outlook, the conservatives of the 1930s and the denialists also seem to believe that if one piece of evidence, one observation, doesn't hold up for any reason, then their enemy's entire edifice collapses.
Much of 20th century philosophy involved a detailed critique of this delusion. Morris alludes to this critique in a subsequent chapter of Believing is Seeing, citing a 1958 book by Norwood Russell Hanson, Patterns of Discovery, which countered the positivist delusion by insisting that observations are theory-laden. Or, as Morris points out, "Our beliefs do not determine what is true or false. They do not determine objective reality. But they can determine what we 'see.'" Indeed, one of the themes of Believing is Seeing is a tussle with the positivist delusion -- observation is not as simple as it looks, and we bring our theoretical point of view to everything we observe.
In practice, incompatible observations can put a strain on theories, but most theories can accommodate a surprising amount of divergence before they begin to get into trouble. They are baggy and loose in this sense.
The early fear was that this looseness opened the door too wide to relativism and unreason. The work of Karl Popper, Thomas Kuhn and Imre Lakatos among many others energetically investigated how to choose rationally among competing theories. The upshot is that the theory-laden nature of facts does not plunge us into a state of relativistic undecidability, where there are no facts, only competing points of view. Instead of something with a foundation, knowledge is a network where successful theories and observations must strongly cohere.
Decades of philosophical arguments have sharpened the sense that although observations are theory laden, some theories are still better from others. Reality begins to emerge when many observations in one field as well as in other sciences provide strong corroboration for the same theory. Empirical observations of the climate, for example, steadily agree with the theories of atmospheric chemistry, physics, and a long list of other disciplines. It all points to climate change as a real issue with a human cause. Observations are not solitary, but part of a much larger group. When many squadrons of facts tend to corroborate a theory, that's signficant.
So the question of whose science to believe can be readily answered. For believers in anthropogenic climate change, a long list of major scientific bodies, national and international, regularly affirm the consensus view of climate change. They marshal a large army of facts to support their case.
On the denialist side, a squad of often discredited quacks maintains the opposite. Their numbers are small and their arguments are regularly refuted, but their struggle continues on life support from hundreds of millions of fossil fuel dollars. They see themselves as the teenagers in Red Dawn, singlehandedly fighting off a Soviet invasion of Colorado.
As citizens, we're often called upon to make decisions based on scientific data that we don't personally understand. We wind up having to accept some things on the authority of people who know more. And which evidence will you believe? In the climate change controversies, which science you accept seems to depend on politics. But on the denialist side, you have to ignore a whole lot more evidence to mainain your point of view.
Whether or not the cow's skull was moved, there was a drought in 1937.
Friday, February 8, 2013
NOAA research finds new way to identify which El Niño events will have biggest impact on US winter weather
NOAA: Weather forecasters have long known that El Niño events can throw seasonal climate patterns off kilter, particularly during winter months. Now, new research from NOAA and the University of Washington suggests that a different way to detect El Niño could help forecasters predict the unusual weather it causes.
A network of buoys that spans the Pacific, the TAO-Triton array, observes conditions in the upper ocean and is essential for forecasting El Niño months in advance, and for monitoring it as it grows and decays. A new study, just published in the February issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Ed Harrison, Ph.D. of the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle and Andrew Chiodi, Ph.D., of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, co-authored the paper.
“When it comes to El Niño’s weather impacts, we are always looking for ways to improve our forecasting skill,” said Harrison. “Our goal is to extract the most useful information to predict El Niño seasonal weather anomalies.”
Harrison and Chiodi looked at all El Niño events that were identified by sea surface temperature measurements since 1979. They then examined satellite imagery for these events and found that a subset of the events showed a sharp dip in heat radiating from the tops of deep convective clouds, an indicator known as outgoing long-wave radiation or OLR. When comparing the El Niño events to historical weather records, the scientists found that the El Niño events with drops in OLR were the ones most likely to play havoc with winter weather.
They also found that El Niño events with no corresponding drop in OLR did not produce statistically significant anomalies in weather patterns. The dip in heat from deep convective clouds usually occurred before winter, so the timing of the signal could help forecasters improve winter seasonal outlooks, the scientists said.
“By sorting El Niño events into two categories, one with OLR changes and one without, forecasters may be able to produce winter seasonal outlooks with more confidence than previously thought possible,” Harrison said....
El Niño, warmer than average waters in the Eastern equatorial Pacific (shown in orange on the map), affects weather around the world. A new study, just published in the February 2013 issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Image from the NOAA Visualization Lab
A network of buoys that spans the Pacific, the TAO-Triton array, observes conditions in the upper ocean and is essential for forecasting El Niño months in advance, and for monitoring it as it grows and decays. A new study, just published in the February issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Ed Harrison, Ph.D. of the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle and Andrew Chiodi, Ph.D., of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, co-authored the paper.
“When it comes to El Niño’s weather impacts, we are always looking for ways to improve our forecasting skill,” said Harrison. “Our goal is to extract the most useful information to predict El Niño seasonal weather anomalies.”
Harrison and Chiodi looked at all El Niño events that were identified by sea surface temperature measurements since 1979. They then examined satellite imagery for these events and found that a subset of the events showed a sharp dip in heat radiating from the tops of deep convective clouds, an indicator known as outgoing long-wave radiation or OLR. When comparing the El Niño events to historical weather records, the scientists found that the El Niño events with drops in OLR were the ones most likely to play havoc with winter weather.
They also found that El Niño events with no corresponding drop in OLR did not produce statistically significant anomalies in weather patterns. The dip in heat from deep convective clouds usually occurred before winter, so the timing of the signal could help forecasters improve winter seasonal outlooks, the scientists said.
“By sorting El Niño events into two categories, one with OLR changes and one without, forecasters may be able to produce winter seasonal outlooks with more confidence than previously thought possible,” Harrison said....
El Niño, warmer than average waters in the Eastern equatorial Pacific (shown in orange on the map), affects weather around the world. A new study, just published in the February 2013 issue of the Journal of Climate, describes an atmospheric El Niño signal that is very strongly associated with U.S. winter weather impacts. Image from the NOAA Visualization Lab
Labels:
El_Nino-Southern Oscillation,
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science
Surveillance system can identify and track emerging infectious diseases
EurekAlert via Columbia's Mailman School of Public Health: A team of researchers have developed a method to identify the cause of infectious disease outbreaks based on online reports about the symptoms, the season, and the ratio of cases to fatalities. Using data from the Internet outbreak reporting system ProMED-mail, the researchers applied this method to more than 100 outbreaks of encephalitis in South Asia, recently identified as an emerging infectious disease "hotspot," to determine which of 10 infectious diseases was causing symptoms of encephalitis, and whether Nipah -- a serious emerging infection -- could be reliably differentiated from the others.
The findings showed that three quarters of the disease outbreaks formed distinct clusters, and that previously unknown disease outbreaks could be correctly identified 88% of the time. For Nipah virus encephalitis that number rose to 100%.
Particularly noteworthy according to author Dr. Stephen S. Morse, professor of Epidemiology at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health and an originator of ProMED-mail, was that unknown outbreaks in resource-poor settings could be evaluated in real time, leading to more rapid responses and reducing the risk of a pandemic. The model provides a quick and inexpensive means to assess outbreaks and allows for the tracking of infectious disease outbreaks in the earliest stages of an epidemic.
"Our approach is especially beneficial in resource-poor countries because of their limited surveillance capacity and lack of laboratories to diagnose unusual outbreaks," said Dr. Morse, who is also founder of ProMed. "Such countries are often where new infectious diseases emerge."...
The findings showed that three quarters of the disease outbreaks formed distinct clusters, and that previously unknown disease outbreaks could be correctly identified 88% of the time. For Nipah virus encephalitis that number rose to 100%.
Particularly noteworthy according to author Dr. Stephen S. Morse, professor of Epidemiology at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health and an originator of ProMED-mail, was that unknown outbreaks in resource-poor settings could be evaluated in real time, leading to more rapid responses and reducing the risk of a pandemic. The model provides a quick and inexpensive means to assess outbreaks and allows for the tracking of infectious disease outbreaks in the earliest stages of an epidemic.
"Our approach is especially beneficial in resource-poor countries because of their limited surveillance capacity and lack of laboratories to diagnose unusual outbreaks," said Dr. Morse, who is also founder of ProMed. "Such countries are often where new infectious diseases emerge."...
Snow monitoring methods reduce flood risk
Julie Hunt in swissinfo.ch: Thanks to new monitoring techniques that improve flood forecasting, Switzerland is now less prone to the catastrophic type of flooding that has hit the country over the past few decades. “We can now compare the current situation with other situations in previous years, and tell the flood forecasters if there is significantly more snow than average in the mountains that is due to melt over the next couple of days,” says researcher Tobias Jonas.
Jonas is a hydrologist at the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), a Davos-based institute carrying out cutting-edge work in the field.
The research is important as half of Switzerland is over 1,000 metres above sea level and a quarter over 2,000 metres, so roughly a third of all annual precipitation is snow. When it melts, it can lead to spring floods. In May 1999, heavy rainfall coincided with the main snowmelt period, resulting in devastating floods causing damage totalling SFr580 million ($626 million).
The disaster raised awareness of snow hydrology in general and led to the monitoring of snow water resources being integrated into the federal flood forecasting system. Keeping track of the distribution of snow is vital for predicting run off - the water that flows over the land when the soil is saturated and excess water from rain, melt water or other sources cannot be absorbed.
Water produced by melting snow is known by hydrologists as the “snow water equivalent” (SWE). Until recently, this was very difficult to quantify. There are only about 40 monitoring stations in Switzerland providing SWE data and the measurements are fairly infrequent, as they are time consuming. Teams of scientists have to dig holes in the snow right down to ground level to extract ice cores, which are then weighed.
...This new technique of combining actual measurements with models enabled the WSL to provide daily maps that show how much water the snow will yield at 350 different stations throughout Switzerland. Snow hydrological bulletins are then sent to flood forecasters....
Frozen Hinterstockensee seen from Stockhornbahn, Iglucamp on the left, shot by Chin tin tin, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license
Jonas is a hydrologist at the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), a Davos-based institute carrying out cutting-edge work in the field.
The research is important as half of Switzerland is over 1,000 metres above sea level and a quarter over 2,000 metres, so roughly a third of all annual precipitation is snow. When it melts, it can lead to spring floods. In May 1999, heavy rainfall coincided with the main snowmelt period, resulting in devastating floods causing damage totalling SFr580 million ($626 million).
The disaster raised awareness of snow hydrology in general and led to the monitoring of snow water resources being integrated into the federal flood forecasting system. Keeping track of the distribution of snow is vital for predicting run off - the water that flows over the land when the soil is saturated and excess water from rain, melt water or other sources cannot be absorbed.
Water produced by melting snow is known by hydrologists as the “snow water equivalent” (SWE). Until recently, this was very difficult to quantify. There are only about 40 monitoring stations in Switzerland providing SWE data and the measurements are fairly infrequent, as they are time consuming. Teams of scientists have to dig holes in the snow right down to ground level to extract ice cores, which are then weighed.
...This new technique of combining actual measurements with models enabled the WSL to provide daily maps that show how much water the snow will yield at 350 different stations throughout Switzerland. Snow hydrological bulletins are then sent to flood forecasters....
Frozen Hinterstockensee seen from Stockhornbahn, Iglucamp on the left, shot by Chin tin tin, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license
Labels:
flood,
monitoring,
prediction,
science,
snow,
Switzerland
How can we mitigate the effects of climate change
Dr Moses Amweelo in New Era (Namibia): The 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 8th Session of the Conference of Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol opened on 26 November to 8th December 2012 in Doha, Qatar.
... There is increasing concern over scientific conclusions regarding social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change in Africa, particularly as Africa has contributed the least to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, and that the continent is most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and has the least capacity to adapt.
...The south and the central parts of the country have been placed under red alert after experiencing the heaviest rainfall seen since devastating floods killed around 800 people in 2000 (The Namibian 24,January 2013 p.22). According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) regarding the status of the world’s climate in 2010 temperatures averaged over Africa were 1.29°C above the long term average, breaking the previous record by 0.35° C. Moreover, the Saharan/Arabian region was 2.22 °C above normal, the largest annual anomaly ever recorded for any sub-region outside the Arctic and East Africa, which never had a year as much as 1 °C above normal prior to 2003, has now reached this threshold in eight successive years.
...Those countries and communities who have contributed least to climate change but who are already in vulnerable situations will feel the adverse effects of climate change most acutely. In order to reduce greenhouse gases, all countries (developed and developing) should enhance their contribution to long-term cooperative action to combat climate change with a shared vision, which is based on and in fulfillment of the objectives, principles and provisions of the UNFCCC or Convention in particular with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, equity and historical responsibility....
Flooding on the Klein Windhoek River, shot by Bries, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.5 Generic license
... There is increasing concern over scientific conclusions regarding social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change in Africa, particularly as Africa has contributed the least to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, and that the continent is most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and has the least capacity to adapt.
...The south and the central parts of the country have been placed under red alert after experiencing the heaviest rainfall seen since devastating floods killed around 800 people in 2000 (The Namibian 24,January 2013 p.22). According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) regarding the status of the world’s climate in 2010 temperatures averaged over Africa were 1.29°C above the long term average, breaking the previous record by 0.35° C. Moreover, the Saharan/Arabian region was 2.22 °C above normal, the largest annual anomaly ever recorded for any sub-region outside the Arctic and East Africa, which never had a year as much as 1 °C above normal prior to 2003, has now reached this threshold in eight successive years.
...Those countries and communities who have contributed least to climate change but who are already in vulnerable situations will feel the adverse effects of climate change most acutely. In order to reduce greenhouse gases, all countries (developed and developing) should enhance their contribution to long-term cooperative action to combat climate change with a shared vision, which is based on and in fulfillment of the objectives, principles and provisions of the UNFCCC or Convention in particular with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, equity and historical responsibility....
Flooding on the Klein Windhoek River, shot by Bries, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.5 Generic license
New book reveals human cost of climate change
Newswise: A new book, Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change, predicts a grim future for billions of people in this century. It is a factual account of a staggering human toll, based on hard data. Author Andrew Guzman, an authority on international law and economics, is a professor and associate dean at UC Berkeley School of Law.
Guzman has studied intractable economic problems, such as poverty, recessions, and trade wars. But, in recent years, one problem loomed larger than all the rest: climate change. It became impossible to fathom the economic impact of state actions without including global warming in the equation.
“Climate change is the most important problem facing the international community in the 21st century,” Guzman said. “It’s a problem that no country alone can solve, but a solution is imperative.”
Countless books exist on the scientific aspects of climate change, but not one on why people should care, said Guzman. So he decided to write for a popular audience, to engage them, to capture their imaginations in a way that would communicate the depth of the problem.
Guzman adopted the predictions of scientists who expect a minimum warming of two degrees Celcius. But even such a modest calculation will mean unprecedented migrations, flooding, famine, and war. It will decimate infrastructures we take for granted, crippling roadways, sewers, and irrigation systems. Social services we rely on (sanitation, transportation, heath care) will cease working normally, and humans will find themselves competing for ever more scarce resources.
“Climate change is going to damage the very foundations upon which we’ve built our civilization. I don’t think people understand how pervasive this problem is,” Guzman said.....
Guzman has studied intractable economic problems, such as poverty, recessions, and trade wars. But, in recent years, one problem loomed larger than all the rest: climate change. It became impossible to fathom the economic impact of state actions without including global warming in the equation.
“Climate change is the most important problem facing the international community in the 21st century,” Guzman said. “It’s a problem that no country alone can solve, but a solution is imperative.”
Countless books exist on the scientific aspects of climate change, but not one on why people should care, said Guzman. So he decided to write for a popular audience, to engage them, to capture their imaginations in a way that would communicate the depth of the problem.
Guzman adopted the predictions of scientists who expect a minimum warming of two degrees Celcius. But even such a modest calculation will mean unprecedented migrations, flooding, famine, and war. It will decimate infrastructures we take for granted, crippling roadways, sewers, and irrigation systems. Social services we rely on (sanitation, transportation, heath care) will cease working normally, and humans will find themselves competing for ever more scarce resources.
“Climate change is going to damage the very foundations upon which we’ve built our civilization. I don’t think people understand how pervasive this problem is,” Guzman said.....
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Rebuilding standards at Jersey Shore must reflect climate change, experts say
North Jersey.com: A day after Governor Christie dismissed questions about whether climate change fueled superstorm Sandy, scientists maintained Wednesday that global warming and sea level rise must be taken into account when rebuilding the Jersey Shore.
Meteorologists and climate experts criticized Christie for remarks at a news conference on Tuesday in which he said he was not focused on the cause of the devastating storm and that questions about the role of climate change were “esoteric.” The scientists said that understanding how climate change helped exacerbate Sandy’s destructive force is crucial to limiting damage from future storms.
“He shouldn’t be dismissing this,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a climate expert at Princeton University. “This should be at the heart of local, state and federal policy right now in deciding how to rebuild the Jersey Shore. If we rebuild the same way it was, are we just asking for more trouble? How can we rebuild and retreat in a way that makes us less vulnerable?”
...While Christie was dismissive on Tuesday, he has said in the past that climate change is real and that “human activity” has contributed to it. And while he has maintained that the science behind climate change is in flux, Christie adopted new federal rebuilding standards last month that will require damaged properties to be elevated or retrofitted to withstand storm surges or face steep flood insurance premiums.
Some scientists question if it is wise to rebuild in some of the most vulnerable areas at all. “I think a lot of this building is inappropriate on the Jersey barrier islands,” said James Carton, an expert on sea level rise at the University of Maryland. “You’re almost guaranteed that the buildings will be destroyed at some point.”...
A Sandy-damaged building in Sea Bright, New Jersey, shot by Adam Moss, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license
Meteorologists and climate experts criticized Christie for remarks at a news conference on Tuesday in which he said he was not focused on the cause of the devastating storm and that questions about the role of climate change were “esoteric.” The scientists said that understanding how climate change helped exacerbate Sandy’s destructive force is crucial to limiting damage from future storms.
“He shouldn’t be dismissing this,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a climate expert at Princeton University. “This should be at the heart of local, state and federal policy right now in deciding how to rebuild the Jersey Shore. If we rebuild the same way it was, are we just asking for more trouble? How can we rebuild and retreat in a way that makes us less vulnerable?”
...While Christie was dismissive on Tuesday, he has said in the past that climate change is real and that “human activity” has contributed to it. And while he has maintained that the science behind climate change is in flux, Christie adopted new federal rebuilding standards last month that will require damaged properties to be elevated or retrofitted to withstand storm surges or face steep flood insurance premiums.
Some scientists question if it is wise to rebuild in some of the most vulnerable areas at all. “I think a lot of this building is inappropriate on the Jersey barrier islands,” said James Carton, an expert on sea level rise at the University of Maryland. “You’re almost guaranteed that the buildings will be destroyed at some point.”...
A Sandy-damaged building in Sea Bright, New Jersey, shot by Adam Moss, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license
Climate change impacts absent from FEMA's redrawn NYC flood maps
Katherine Bagley in InsideClimate News: When the federal government released updated flood maps for the New York City region last week, residents were shocked to find that the number of houses and businesses in the region's flood zone had doubled since the maps were last revised, in 1986.
But it now appears that those maps might have underestimated the extent of New York's flood risk, because they don't factor in the effects of future climate change. Scientists say that by the 2080s, sea levels off the city's coast could rise by as much as five feet from melting glaciers, making storm surges more severe and causing floods much further inland than the new maps indicate.
The maps also don't incorporate data from Hurricane Sandy, which caused catastrophic flooding in the nation's financial capital. Many structures destroyed by the superstorm are not included in the newly drawn flood zones.
If future sea level rise had been taken into account, the flood zone would likely have been much larger, said Philip Orton, a physical oceanographer at the Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey, who served as a technical reviewer on the updated maps.
"The fear is that we'll get a meter [3.3 feet] of [sea level] rise by the end of the century, potentially more," Orton said. "People are rightfully concerned. ... The New York City area isn't ready for the storm surges of today, as we learned from Sandy, let alone what is possible in the future."....
Hurricane Sandy damage in Brooklyn, shot by Jim.henderson, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
But it now appears that those maps might have underestimated the extent of New York's flood risk, because they don't factor in the effects of future climate change. Scientists say that by the 2080s, sea levels off the city's coast could rise by as much as five feet from melting glaciers, making storm surges more severe and causing floods much further inland than the new maps indicate.
The maps also don't incorporate data from Hurricane Sandy, which caused catastrophic flooding in the nation's financial capital. Many structures destroyed by the superstorm are not included in the newly drawn flood zones.
If future sea level rise had been taken into account, the flood zone would likely have been much larger, said Philip Orton, a physical oceanographer at the Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey, who served as a technical reviewer on the updated maps.
"The fear is that we'll get a meter [3.3 feet] of [sea level] rise by the end of the century, potentially more," Orton said. "People are rightfully concerned. ... The New York City area isn't ready for the storm surges of today, as we learned from Sandy, let alone what is possible in the future."....
Hurricane Sandy damage in Brooklyn, shot by Jim.henderson, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
Ethiopia dam project is devastating the lives of remote indigenous groups
John Vidal in the "globaldevelopment" blog at the Guardian (UK): Human rights abuses in Ethiopia's Lower Omo valley are said to be rampant, with tribal leaders imprisoned, dozens of people killed and troops cracking down on dissent ahead of the building of a massive dam, which is forcing the relocation of some of the most remote tribes in Africa.
The valley, a Unesco world heritage site renowned for its isolated cultures and ethnic groups, is home to 200,000 pastoralist farmers including the Kwegu, Bodi, Mutsi and Nyangatom tribes. These groups all depend on the Omo river, which flows through their traditional land on its way to Lake Turkana in Kenya.
But their way of life, which has remained largely unchanged in thousands of years, is now being devastated by the Ethiopian government's plans to turn the Omo valley into a powerhouse of large commercial farming. Malaysian, Indian and other foreign companies have been allocated vast areas of land and water resources to grow palm oils, cereals and other crops.
So far, says US-based Oakland Institute in a new report, 445,000 hectares (1.1m acres) have been earmarked for plantations, which will be irrigated by the $2bn (about £1.3bn) Gibe dam. This is expected to eventually double the energy capacity of Ethiopia, storing water in a large lake that will feed irrigation projects.
More than 2,000 soldiers are said to have been drafted into the area downstream of the dam and most of the Omo valley is now off limits to foreigners. But evidence collected in the last few months by an Oakland researcher, suggests that relocations, killings and repression are now common....
In the Omo Valley, shot by AnnaMaria Donnoli, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
The valley, a Unesco world heritage site renowned for its isolated cultures and ethnic groups, is home to 200,000 pastoralist farmers including the Kwegu, Bodi, Mutsi and Nyangatom tribes. These groups all depend on the Omo river, which flows through their traditional land on its way to Lake Turkana in Kenya.
But their way of life, which has remained largely unchanged in thousands of years, is now being devastated by the Ethiopian government's plans to turn the Omo valley into a powerhouse of large commercial farming. Malaysian, Indian and other foreign companies have been allocated vast areas of land and water resources to grow palm oils, cereals and other crops.
So far, says US-based Oakland Institute in a new report, 445,000 hectares (1.1m acres) have been earmarked for plantations, which will be irrigated by the $2bn (about £1.3bn) Gibe dam. This is expected to eventually double the energy capacity of Ethiopia, storing water in a large lake that will feed irrigation projects.
More than 2,000 soldiers are said to have been drafted into the area downstream of the dam and most of the Omo valley is now off limits to foreigners. But evidence collected in the last few months by an Oakland researcher, suggests that relocations, killings and repression are now common....
In the Omo Valley, shot by AnnaMaria Donnoli, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
Labels:
dam,
Ethiopia,
indigenous_people,
justice,
politics
Online tools 'decentralising disaster relief efforts'
Eva Aguilar in SciDev.net: Disaster response and relief efforts are becoming more dynamic and decentralised with the development of web-based geospatial technologies, says a study. Researchers writing in Disasters evaluated the experiences of Harvard University's Center for Geographic Analysis (CGA) during the Sichuan and Haiti earthquake responses in 2008 and 2010, respectively.
They found that the conventional 'top-down' method of establishing emergency centres in damaged areas — usually managed by governments or relief agencies, to provide geographic data to decision-makers on the ground — has evolved into a more "dynamic" and "decentralised" disaster response due to the recent development of web-based geospatial technologies.
Such techniques started to emerge as early as 2004, in the response to the earthquake that struck Chuetsu in Japan, they say.
But it was not until the Haiti disaster that the "much broader potential" of web-based geospatial information, such as maps and images produced by crowd-sourcing responders, was revealed as a tool to allow cooperation between those inside and outside affected areas, they add.
"The technology, and also the public awareness of it, matured at that point," Wendy Guan, one of the authors of the study, tells SciDev.Net....
Earthquake damage in Haiti in 2010, shot by UN Photo/Logan Abassi United Nations Development Programme, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license
They found that the conventional 'top-down' method of establishing emergency centres in damaged areas — usually managed by governments or relief agencies, to provide geographic data to decision-makers on the ground — has evolved into a more "dynamic" and "decentralised" disaster response due to the recent development of web-based geospatial technologies.
Such techniques started to emerge as early as 2004, in the response to the earthquake that struck Chuetsu in Japan, they say.
But it was not until the Haiti disaster that the "much broader potential" of web-based geospatial information, such as maps and images produced by crowd-sourcing responders, was revealed as a tool to allow cooperation between those inside and outside affected areas, they add.
"The technology, and also the public awareness of it, matured at that point," Wendy Guan, one of the authors of the study, tells SciDev.Net....
Earthquake damage in Haiti in 2010, shot by UN Photo/Logan Abassi United Nations Development Programme, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license
Nigeria must take climate change seriously
Alex Abutu in AllAfrica.com via the Daily Trust (Nigeria): Senator Bukola Saraki, Senate Committee Chairman on Environment has urged the federal government to take serious the issues of climate change following the devastating flood that ravaged the country in 2012.
Saraki, in an interview with Daily Trust said "the issue of climate change is something that must be taken seriously in Nigeria as years go by. We must also accept that some of the behaviours of our people in the aspect of where we build and the kind of infrastructure we put up can also be a big problem in the issue of flooding. We need to begin to address it; urban development laws and policy need to be properly put in place to address such situations. We also need to look at how we can quickly can provide alternative routes and meet the needs of victims just in case we are faced with what we experienced last year regarding floods.
"I wouldn't say we have done enough but I would say we have learnt from experience of last year that these are the kind of things that we will be asking the ministry of environment to let us have in their plan for this year. But the major thing for me is to make sure we try as much as we can to prevent whatever flood that might have been predicted."
He called for the establishment of an Erosion Control Commission as a way of checking the menace in eastern Nigeria....
Flood-submerged houses in Makurdi, Nigeria, in September 2012, shot by Achakpa, Wikimedia Commons, nder the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
Saraki, in an interview with Daily Trust said "the issue of climate change is something that must be taken seriously in Nigeria as years go by. We must also accept that some of the behaviours of our people in the aspect of where we build and the kind of infrastructure we put up can also be a big problem in the issue of flooding. We need to begin to address it; urban development laws and policy need to be properly put in place to address such situations. We also need to look at how we can quickly can provide alternative routes and meet the needs of victims just in case we are faced with what we experienced last year regarding floods.
"I wouldn't say we have done enough but I would say we have learnt from experience of last year that these are the kind of things that we will be asking the ministry of environment to let us have in their plan for this year. But the major thing for me is to make sure we try as much as we can to prevent whatever flood that might have been predicted."
He called for the establishment of an Erosion Control Commission as a way of checking the menace in eastern Nigeria....
Flood-submerged houses in Makurdi, Nigeria, in September 2012, shot by Achakpa, Wikimedia Commons, nder the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
Labels:
climate change adaptation,
flood,
governance,
infrastructure,
Nigeria
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Blowing hot and cold: US belief in climate change shifts with weather
AlphaGalileo via Springer: Being exposed to climate variations - temperature fluctuations in particular - can influence our opinions about climate change, according to a new study by Simon Donner and Jeremy McDaniels from the University of British Columbia in Canada. Their work shows that a cold snap may lead to skepticism over climate change, whereas a particularly hot spell may increase concern over climate change. Their work is published online in Springer's journal, Climatic Change.
Over the past 20 years, public opinion about human-caused climate change has varied in the United States. Individual attitudes to climate change are thought to be influenced by many factors, including personal values, political views, the media environment and personal experience. Donner and McDaniels' work explores the role of climate itself on their attitudes to climate change. Can the weather over the past few months influence public opinion about climate change and their willingness to change behavior or support climate policy?
The researchers used 1990-2010 data from national public opinion polls and a detailed analysis of opinion articles from major US newspapers, including The New York Times, Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal and USA Today.. They evaluated the relationship between average national temperatures and both the 'belief in' and 'worry about' climate change expressed in the polls, as well as attitudes to climate change expressed in editorial and opinion articles.
They found that climate variability may be one of the factors driving differences in opinion about climate change in the US. During seasons when average temperatures were warmer than normal, Americans tended to be more convinced and more worried about human-caused climate change. The researchers also suggest that headline-making weather strongly influences climate beliefs of individuals without strong convictions for or against climate change. In addition, the major newspapers tended to publish more opinion articles expressing either support for the scientific consensus on climate change, concern about climate change, or arguments for climate action.
Prof. Donner says, "Our findings help to explain some of the significant fluctuations and inconsistencies in U.S. public opinion on climate change. The study demonstrates just how much local weather can influence people's opinions on global warming. We find that, unfortunately, a cold winter is enough to make some people, including many newspaper editors and opinion leaders, doubt the overwhelming scientific consensus on the issue."...
NOAA graphic of the formation of a heat wave
Over the past 20 years, public opinion about human-caused climate change has varied in the United States. Individual attitudes to climate change are thought to be influenced by many factors, including personal values, political views, the media environment and personal experience. Donner and McDaniels' work explores the role of climate itself on their attitudes to climate change. Can the weather over the past few months influence public opinion about climate change and their willingness to change behavior or support climate policy?
The researchers used 1990-2010 data from national public opinion polls and a detailed analysis of opinion articles from major US newspapers, including The New York Times, Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal and USA Today.. They evaluated the relationship between average national temperatures and both the 'belief in' and 'worry about' climate change expressed in the polls, as well as attitudes to climate change expressed in editorial and opinion articles.
They found that climate variability may be one of the factors driving differences in opinion about climate change in the US. During seasons when average temperatures were warmer than normal, Americans tended to be more convinced and more worried about human-caused climate change. The researchers also suggest that headline-making weather strongly influences climate beliefs of individuals without strong convictions for or against climate change. In addition, the major newspapers tended to publish more opinion articles expressing either support for the scientific consensus on climate change, concern about climate change, or arguments for climate action.
Prof. Donner says, "Our findings help to explain some of the significant fluctuations and inconsistencies in U.S. public opinion on climate change. The study demonstrates just how much local weather can influence people's opinions on global warming. We find that, unfortunately, a cold winter is enough to make some people, including many newspaper editors and opinion leaders, doubt the overwhelming scientific consensus on the issue."...
NOAA graphic of the formation of a heat wave
Labels:
denial,
politics,
psychology,
public opinion,
social
Birds may need a hand to weather climate change
Durham University News: Birds in Asia may need a helping hand to adapt to climate change, according to scientists. A new study led by Durham University and BirdLife International, shows that many bird species are likely to suffer under future climate change, and will require enhanced protection of important sites, better management of the wider countryside, and in some of the most extreme cases may need to be physically moved to climatically suitable areas to help them survive.
The priority, the researchers say, is for stronger protection and effective management of networks of important sites for conservation which currently support priority species and could offer new habitat for birds forced to shift their distribution in future.
The research, published in the journal Global Change Biology, examined the potential future distributions of suitable climate within conservation sites (Important Bird Areas) for 370 Asian bird species of conservation concern across the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong regions.
According to the scientists, the findings demonstrate how climate change could affect birdlife and conservation policy across the globe. The researchers say that adapting the way that conservation sites are managed, and facilitating the movement of species to suitable areas, will be critical to future conservation.
Projections show that at least 45% and possibly up to 88% of the 370 species studied will experience declines in suitable climate, leading to changing species composition at individual sites.
The study considered almost 500 scenarios of each bird species’ response to future climate change and showed, for the first time, that despite uncertainty in future climate projections, it was extremely likely that these changes in bird communities would occur. However, the site network as a whole is still likely to retain suitable climate for all species in future, meaning that current conservation efforts should be strengthened, but also adapted....
A red-crowned crane in flight in Hokkaido, Japan, shot by Alastair Rae, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license
The priority, the researchers say, is for stronger protection and effective management of networks of important sites for conservation which currently support priority species and could offer new habitat for birds forced to shift their distribution in future.
The research, published in the journal Global Change Biology, examined the potential future distributions of suitable climate within conservation sites (Important Bird Areas) for 370 Asian bird species of conservation concern across the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong regions.
According to the scientists, the findings demonstrate how climate change could affect birdlife and conservation policy across the globe. The researchers say that adapting the way that conservation sites are managed, and facilitating the movement of species to suitable areas, will be critical to future conservation.
Projections show that at least 45% and possibly up to 88% of the 370 species studied will experience declines in suitable climate, leading to changing species composition at individual sites.
The study considered almost 500 scenarios of each bird species’ response to future climate change and showed, for the first time, that despite uncertainty in future climate projections, it was extremely likely that these changes in bird communities would occur. However, the site network as a whole is still likely to retain suitable climate for all species in future, meaning that current conservation efforts should be strengthened, but also adapted....
A red-crowned crane in flight in Hokkaido, Japan, shot by Alastair Rae, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license
NASA to launch ocean wind monitor to International Space Station
Space Daily via NASA: In a clever reuse of hardware originally built to test parts of NASA's QuikScat satellite, the agency will launch the ISS-RapidScat instrument to the International Space Station in 2014 to measure ocean surface wind speed and direction.
The ISS-RapidScat instrument will help improve weather forecasts, including hurricane monitoring, and understanding of how ocean-atmosphere interactions influence Earth's climate.
"The ability for NASA to quickly reuse this hardware and launch it to the space station is a great example of a low-cost approach that will have high benefits to science and life here on Earth," said Mike Suffredini, NASA's International Space Station program manager.
ISS-RapidScat will help fill the data gap created when QuikScat, which was designed to last two years but operated for 10, stopped collecting ocean wind data in late 2009. A scatterometer is a microwave radar sensor used to measure the reflection or scattering effect produced while scanning the surface of Earth from an aircraft or a satellite.
NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have studied next-generation replacements for QuikScat, but a successor will not be available soon. To meet this challenge cost-effectively, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and the agency's station program proposed adapting leftover QuikScat hardware in combination with new hardware for use on the space station....
NASA shot of the International Space Station
The ISS-RapidScat instrument will help improve weather forecasts, including hurricane monitoring, and understanding of how ocean-atmosphere interactions influence Earth's climate.
"The ability for NASA to quickly reuse this hardware and launch it to the space station is a great example of a low-cost approach that will have high benefits to science and life here on Earth," said Mike Suffredini, NASA's International Space Station program manager.
ISS-RapidScat will help fill the data gap created when QuikScat, which was designed to last two years but operated for 10, stopped collecting ocean wind data in late 2009. A scatterometer is a microwave radar sensor used to measure the reflection or scattering effect produced while scanning the surface of Earth from an aircraft or a satellite.
NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have studied next-generation replacements for QuikScat, but a successor will not be available soon. To meet this challenge cost-effectively, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and the agency's station program proposed adapting leftover QuikScat hardware in combination with new hardware for use on the space station....
NASA shot of the International Space Station
Air pollution increases chances of low birth-weight babies
The Guardian (UK): Sooty air pollution in towns and cities increases the chances of women giving birth to small babies, new research has shown. A study involving millions of births around the world found that higher pollution levels raised the risk of low birth-weight.
Although small, the effect is said to be statistically significant. At national population scales it could have an important impact on child health, said the researchers. Babies are underweight at birth if they tip the scales at less than 2.5kgs, or 5lbs 8oz. They face an increased risk of dying in infancy, as well as chronic poor health and impaired mental development.
The new study, the largest of its kind ever conducted, focused on tiny sooty carbon particles called PM10s and even smaller PM2.5s which are known to be linked to heart and lung problems and early death. They originate from a number of sources, including diesel exhausts and the chimneys of coal-fired power stations and factories.
Professor Tanja Pless-Mulloli, who led the UK arm of the study at the Newcastle University, said: "As air pollution increases we can see that more babies are smaller at birth, which in turn puts them at risk of poor health later in life....
A smoggy London day in 2006, shot by Iain Buchanan, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license
Although small, the effect is said to be statistically significant. At national population scales it could have an important impact on child health, said the researchers. Babies are underweight at birth if they tip the scales at less than 2.5kgs, or 5lbs 8oz. They face an increased risk of dying in infancy, as well as chronic poor health and impaired mental development.
The new study, the largest of its kind ever conducted, focused on tiny sooty carbon particles called PM10s and even smaller PM2.5s which are known to be linked to heart and lung problems and early death. They originate from a number of sources, including diesel exhausts and the chimneys of coal-fired power stations and factories.
Professor Tanja Pless-Mulloli, who led the UK arm of the study at the Newcastle University, said: "As air pollution increases we can see that more babies are smaller at birth, which in turn puts them at risk of poor health later in life....
A smoggy London day in 2006, shot by Iain Buchanan, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license
Are we heading for 6° temperature rise?
Liz Kalaugher in Environmental Research Web: Climate scientist Kevin Anderson believes scientists at the interface of climate and policy may have used naive assumptions when modelling for a 2°C target.
They say never judge a book by its cover, but chances are a lecture entitled "Real clothes for the emperor: facing the challenges of climate change" will be fairly down-to-earth. That proved to be the case when Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Manchester, UK, gave the Cabot Annual Lecture 2012 in Bristol, UK, in November 2012.
In response to an audience member who commented that most climate scientists were simply trying to pay their bills, Anderson said "I don't think it's OK to walk past a mugging on the way to pay the mortgage. Climate scientists need to be good citizens too. Our science tells us we are killing people in poor parts of the world by putting our lights on and we need to make people think about that. Scientists need to start standing up for what they believe in. By staying quiet we are legitimizing it."
Back in 2011, Anderson published a paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A on how he felt today's integrated assessment models, which combine climate data with economic data, are dangerously flawed. Why? Because they are based on "naive" assumptions for factors such as emission growth rates and the date of emission peaks, they limit annual energy-emission reduction rates to between 2 and 4%, and assume uptake of geoengineering as well as a high penetration of nuclear power alongside untested carbon-capture and storage technologies.
"Because integrated assessment models typically use similar and inappropriate sets of assumptions, they repeatedly come up with the same narrow and fundamentally flawed answers," Anderson told environmentalresearchweb at the time. In his November talk, on the topic of emission growth rates used in models that were lower than real-world growth rates, he said "We've always underplayed everything we possibly can – we've done exactly what the sceptics said but in reverse."
..."With few exceptions the scenarios out there hide or massage historical emissions and emission trends," said Anderson. "So they change the framing of where we are today. They underestimate short-term growth out to the peak of emissions. The peak choice is Machiavellian at best. No-one thinks that we're going to peak in 2016 and yet virtually every model will peak in 2016, which gives you a nice answer for your policymaker."...
This map shows the average of a set of climate model experiments projecting changes in surface temperature for the period 2050-2059, relative to the period from 1971-1999. Future greenhouse gas emissions were fed into the climate models to project future temperature changes. In this temperature projection, emissions are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's emissions scenario "A2" (see Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for more information on the A2 scenario). Public domain
They say never judge a book by its cover, but chances are a lecture entitled "Real clothes for the emperor: facing the challenges of climate change" will be fairly down-to-earth. That proved to be the case when Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Manchester, UK, gave the Cabot Annual Lecture 2012 in Bristol, UK, in November 2012.
In response to an audience member who commented that most climate scientists were simply trying to pay their bills, Anderson said "I don't think it's OK to walk past a mugging on the way to pay the mortgage. Climate scientists need to be good citizens too. Our science tells us we are killing people in poor parts of the world by putting our lights on and we need to make people think about that. Scientists need to start standing up for what they believe in. By staying quiet we are legitimizing it."
Back in 2011, Anderson published a paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A on how he felt today's integrated assessment models, which combine climate data with economic data, are dangerously flawed. Why? Because they are based on "naive" assumptions for factors such as emission growth rates and the date of emission peaks, they limit annual energy-emission reduction rates to between 2 and 4%, and assume uptake of geoengineering as well as a high penetration of nuclear power alongside untested carbon-capture and storage technologies.
"Because integrated assessment models typically use similar and inappropriate sets of assumptions, they repeatedly come up with the same narrow and fundamentally flawed answers," Anderson told environmentalresearchweb at the time. In his November talk, on the topic of emission growth rates used in models that were lower than real-world growth rates, he said "We've always underplayed everything we possibly can – we've done exactly what the sceptics said but in reverse."
..."With few exceptions the scenarios out there hide or massage historical emissions and emission trends," said Anderson. "So they change the framing of where we are today. They underestimate short-term growth out to the peak of emissions. The peak choice is Machiavellian at best. No-one thinks that we're going to peak in 2016 and yet virtually every model will peak in 2016, which gives you a nice answer for your policymaker."...
This map shows the average of a set of climate model experiments projecting changes in surface temperature for the period 2050-2059, relative to the period from 1971-1999. Future greenhouse gas emissions were fed into the climate models to project future temperature changes. In this temperature projection, emissions are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's emissions scenario "A2" (see Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for more information on the A2 scenario). Public domain
Labels:
policy,
prediction,
psychology,
scenarios,
temperature
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Lakes Michigan, Huron sink to lowest level ever
Jim Lynch in the Detroit News: In the nearly 100 years researchers have catalogued the rise and fall of the Great Lakes, Michigan and Huron have never seen a month like January. The two-lake system recorded its lowest-ever level for a month, a mean of 576.02 feet above sea level. It's a number that dips below the all-time low for January — 576.12 feet — as well as the all-time low for any month, 576.05 feet in March 1964.
For those who live along or play in the waters of the Great Lakes, the news is disturbing but unsurprising. Each of the lakes has lingered below its long-term averages for years as the region endured drought-like conditions. When the 2011-12 winter produced less-than-expected snowfall and the ensuing spring produced little rainfall, the seeds were sown for records. Low lakes have meant recreational watercraft running aground, shorelines and beaches expanding as the lakes recede, changing fish habitats and forcing shipping vessels to drastically reduce the tonnage they carry.
The record comes as Gov. Rick Snyder prepares to unveil his 2013-14 budget Thursday in which he's expected to call for $11 million to dredge harbors to keep access to open waters, the Associated Press reported late Friday.
Other steps to alleviate the effects of low water levels will include expediting Department of Environmental Quality permits for dredging projects, pushing for more federal funding and devising a long-term strategy to pay for keeping harbors deep enough for recreational and commercial vessels, according to the AP.
..."A lot of people don't realize that lake levels are extremely low," Snyder said in Grand Rapids last week. "It is critically important to tourism and other things in Michigan, in terms of normal business and commerce."...
Chicago and Lake Michigan, shot by Mike Boehmer, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license
For those who live along or play in the waters of the Great Lakes, the news is disturbing but unsurprising. Each of the lakes has lingered below its long-term averages for years as the region endured drought-like conditions. When the 2011-12 winter produced less-than-expected snowfall and the ensuing spring produced little rainfall, the seeds were sown for records. Low lakes have meant recreational watercraft running aground, shorelines and beaches expanding as the lakes recede, changing fish habitats and forcing shipping vessels to drastically reduce the tonnage they carry.
The record comes as Gov. Rick Snyder prepares to unveil his 2013-14 budget Thursday in which he's expected to call for $11 million to dredge harbors to keep access to open waters, the Associated Press reported late Friday.
Other steps to alleviate the effects of low water levels will include expediting Department of Environmental Quality permits for dredging projects, pushing for more federal funding and devising a long-term strategy to pay for keeping harbors deep enough for recreational and commercial vessels, according to the AP.
..."A lot of people don't realize that lake levels are extremely low," Snyder said in Grand Rapids last week. "It is critically important to tourism and other things in Michigan, in terms of normal business and commerce."...
Chicago and Lake Michigan, shot by Mike Boehmer, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license
Preparedness pays as hundreds of thousands flee from floods in Mozambique
Alexander Matheou in the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies: Yvonne is 64. She has spent the last six days on a roof. The rest of her family fled the village ten days ago after packing everything they could onto a small cart, but Yvonne stayed, hoping the oncoming floods would recede quickly so she could salvage and protect her house and her things. But the water flowed in and rose up fast. So she climbed onto the roof and waited.
When she felt the water was shallow enough, she climbed down and walked 25km to an agreed meeting point. As she arrives, the family gather round, cheering and clapping. Yvonne does a little dance and joins the six children and three adults huddled under a plastic sheet.
Scattered around her and stretching along miles of road are tens of thousands of other families, huddled under dense trees for shelter. A few have tents, some have plastic sheets, but most are out in the open. The majority are women and children. They are cooking, breastfeeding, fanning themselves, sleeping and braiding their children's hair. They have all managed to salvage something from their homes so they sit around piles of cases and bags.
That they have been able to save anything is testament to the one piece of good news in a crisis that has displaced 200,000 people. The early warning systems worked.
Improved climate science, combined with the commitment of the authorities to disseminate warnings through radio and volunteers with the Mozambique Red Cross Society, meant people had time to pack and leave for higher ground. During the floods of 2000, over 700 people died. So far in 2013, fewer than 100 have lost their lives.
Yet while the early warning is impressive, the overall response is less so. In this one district of Gaza, 100,000 people are sleeping in the open, and there are also problems with food, water and hygiene. Relief is being distributed, but it is in painfully short supply. Roads are still crammed with moving people, and the numbers are swelling....
NASA image of a 2000 flood in Mozambique
When she felt the water was shallow enough, she climbed down and walked 25km to an agreed meeting point. As she arrives, the family gather round, cheering and clapping. Yvonne does a little dance and joins the six children and three adults huddled under a plastic sheet.
Scattered around her and stretching along miles of road are tens of thousands of other families, huddled under dense trees for shelter. A few have tents, some have plastic sheets, but most are out in the open. The majority are women and children. They are cooking, breastfeeding, fanning themselves, sleeping and braiding their children's hair. They have all managed to salvage something from their homes so they sit around piles of cases and bags.
That they have been able to save anything is testament to the one piece of good news in a crisis that has displaced 200,000 people. The early warning systems worked.
Improved climate science, combined with the commitment of the authorities to disseminate warnings through radio and volunteers with the Mozambique Red Cross Society, meant people had time to pack and leave for higher ground. During the floods of 2000, over 700 people died. So far in 2013, fewer than 100 have lost their lives.
Yet while the early warning is impressive, the overall response is less so. In this one district of Gaza, 100,000 people are sleeping in the open, and there are also problems with food, water and hygiene. Relief is being distributed, but it is in painfully short supply. Roads are still crammed with moving people, and the numbers are swelling....
NASA image of a 2000 flood in Mozambique
Jakarta faces up to a high flood-risk future
Bruno Philip in the Guardian (UK): On 17 January water flooded into several Jakarta neighbourhoods, claiming more than a dozen lives and causing the evacuation of 18,000 residents. Even the city centre was affected. The papers featured pictures of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono paddling in the garden of his official residence, his trousers rolled up to the knee.
"I have sent a letter to the Agency for Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) to move the clouds to the north [the sea]," city governor Joko Widodo told reporters at city hall last month. He did not go into details about how this might be done, explaining that it was possible to use weather engineering technology to control clouds. Indonesian meteorologist Armi Susandi was dubious about this strategy's chances of success. "Most likely the rain will fall in Jakarta instead of the sea," he told the daily Jakarta Post.
Floods are a recurrent problem for the Indonesian capital. In 2007, harsh conditions caused 50 fatalities and displaced 300,000 people. According to specialists, channels need to be built to contain the city's 13 rivers, with tunnels to divert floodwater and pumping stations on the northern, seaward side.
Widodo admitted that combating flooding is an uphill task. "It's a very complicated problem. The Dutch built 300 dams and lakes, but there are only 50 left. The wetlands, woods and other green spaces north of the city have been taken over by housing complexes and malls. You can't just demolish everything," he said. Forecasters fear there will be more heavy rainfall before the end of the monsoon in March, as the battle against the rising tide remains a problem....
An 1897 map of Batavia, now Jakarta
"I have sent a letter to the Agency for Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) to move the clouds to the north [the sea]," city governor Joko Widodo told reporters at city hall last month. He did not go into details about how this might be done, explaining that it was possible to use weather engineering technology to control clouds. Indonesian meteorologist Armi Susandi was dubious about this strategy's chances of success. "Most likely the rain will fall in Jakarta instead of the sea," he told the daily Jakarta Post.
Floods are a recurrent problem for the Indonesian capital. In 2007, harsh conditions caused 50 fatalities and displaced 300,000 people. According to specialists, channels need to be built to contain the city's 13 rivers, with tunnels to divert floodwater and pumping stations on the northern, seaward side.
Widodo admitted that combating flooding is an uphill task. "It's a very complicated problem. The Dutch built 300 dams and lakes, but there are only 50 left. The wetlands, woods and other green spaces north of the city have been taken over by housing complexes and malls. You can't just demolish everything," he said. Forecasters fear there will be more heavy rainfall before the end of the monsoon in March, as the battle against the rising tide remains a problem....
An 1897 map of Batavia, now Jakarta
Asia Pulp & Paper commits to end rainforest destruction
Business Green: Asia Pulp & Paper (APP), the company at the centre of a decades-long campaign against its logging activities, has today committed to end all deforestation of natural forests.
The company today published a new "Forest Conservation Policy" committing it to end development of all natural forested areas, including peat forests, improve its peatland management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and work more closely with local communities and other stakeholders.
Crucially, the stated strategy applies to all APP operations and all of its suppliers, as well as "all future expansion" and "any Indonesian fibre utilised by APP's mills elsewhere, including China". In addition, the new strategy will be subject to a series of independent assessments.
APP has in the past published a series of environmental commitments that have been dismissed as "greenwash" by campaigners, but Greenpeace, which has led many of the protests against the company, today welcomed the new strategy.
"We commend APP for making this commitment to end deforestation," said Bustar Maitar, Head of Greenpeace's Forest Campaign in Indonesia, adding that the NGO would now be monitoring its progress closely to ensure the commitments are honoured. "If APP fully implements its new policies it will mark a dramatic change in direction, after years of deforestation in Indonesia."...
The company today published a new "Forest Conservation Policy" committing it to end development of all natural forested areas, including peat forests, improve its peatland management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and work more closely with local communities and other stakeholders.
Crucially, the stated strategy applies to all APP operations and all of its suppliers, as well as "all future expansion" and "any Indonesian fibre utilised by APP's mills elsewhere, including China". In addition, the new strategy will be subject to a series of independent assessments.
APP has in the past published a series of environmental commitments that have been dismissed as "greenwash" by campaigners, but Greenpeace, which has led many of the protests against the company, today welcomed the new strategy.
"We commend APP for making this commitment to end deforestation," said Bustar Maitar, Head of Greenpeace's Forest Campaign in Indonesia, adding that the NGO would now be monitoring its progress closely to ensure the commitments are honoured. "If APP fully implements its new policies it will mark a dramatic change in direction, after years of deforestation in Indonesia."...
Labels:
business,
capitalism,
forests,
Indonesia,
logging
Africa and climate change
An editorial in the Point (Gambia): There have been conventions, coalitions, and conferences held in its name. Hundreds of politicians have discussed, debated and even come to agree on possible solutions armed with which we might stand and face its impending challenge.
Thousands of scientists have released studies, statements, and reports documenting its harmful, and possibly even disastrous consequences for all of the world’s biodiversity. Experts said that Africa is already vulnerable to climate variability.
“Small rises in temperature and reductions in rainfall could ‘tip the balance’ and lead to severe water shortages and reductions in crop yields.”
It is said these could fall by as much as 30 per cent by the 2050s. Historical evidence shows that both natural and managed ecosystems in Africa face substantial adverse impacts from existing climate variability, the nature of which will almost certainly be altered by longer-term climate change.
The negative effects of climate change on crop production are especially pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa, as the agriculture sector accounts for a large share of GDP, export earnings, and employment in most African countries. Climate change could undo even the little progress most African countries have achieved so far in terms of development....
Thousands of scientists have released studies, statements, and reports documenting its harmful, and possibly even disastrous consequences for all of the world’s biodiversity. Experts said that Africa is already vulnerable to climate variability.
“Small rises in temperature and reductions in rainfall could ‘tip the balance’ and lead to severe water shortages and reductions in crop yields.”
It is said these could fall by as much as 30 per cent by the 2050s. Historical evidence shows that both natural and managed ecosystems in Africa face substantial adverse impacts from existing climate variability, the nature of which will almost certainly be altered by longer-term climate change.
The negative effects of climate change on crop production are especially pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa, as the agriculture sector accounts for a large share of GDP, export earnings, and employment in most African countries. Climate change could undo even the little progress most African countries have achieved so far in terms of development....
Labels:
africa,
climate change adaptation,
governance
Monday, February 4, 2013
We must be prepared for the flooding caused by a 'new kind of rain', says Lord Smith
Cole Moreton in the Telegraph (UK): “We are much safer than we were, but there is a constant need to upgrade and improve the defences,” he says. “With more extreme weather patterns happening now and the prospect of the sea level rising over the next 50 years or so, we have to become even more vigilant.”
Lord Smith is in a café in Canvey Island, Essex, on the sea wall built after the terrible events of January 31, 1953. Waves from the North Sea, overcome barriers along the coast, flooding homes suddenly in winter darkness.
“This was a really devastating event,” says Lord Smith, who has just been at a memorial in Chelmsford Cathedral to honour the 307 men, women and children who died along the East Coast. In what was one of Britain’s worst peacetime disasters, 30,000 people were forced to leave their homes because of the flooding.
“There were no systems in place to warn people in advance of flooding events of this kind. The defences in place were nowhere near adequate for the scale of the surge. Both those things have been put right,” he says. The floods led to the construction of the Thames Barrier and, on Canvey, where 59 people died, a concrete wall was put along the shore.
“The defences here are two metres higher now than they were on that night,” says Lord Smith, 61, whose agency defends 3,100 miles of coastline, and protects the country from floods and drought. “In November 2007 there was quite a strong surge that came down the North Sea and hit at Great Yarmouth. We were seriously worried … the surge came to within three inches of the top of the defences, but it was out of sync with high tide so didn’t over-top. It was a very close call. That sort of thing could happen any year.”...
Sunrise over the Thames Barrier, 2008, shot by Ian Dalgliesh, Wikimedia Commons via Geograph UK, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license
Lord Smith is in a café in Canvey Island, Essex, on the sea wall built after the terrible events of January 31, 1953. Waves from the North Sea, overcome barriers along the coast, flooding homes suddenly in winter darkness.
“This was a really devastating event,” says Lord Smith, who has just been at a memorial in Chelmsford Cathedral to honour the 307 men, women and children who died along the East Coast. In what was one of Britain’s worst peacetime disasters, 30,000 people were forced to leave their homes because of the flooding.
“There were no systems in place to warn people in advance of flooding events of this kind. The defences in place were nowhere near adequate for the scale of the surge. Both those things have been put right,” he says. The floods led to the construction of the Thames Barrier and, on Canvey, where 59 people died, a concrete wall was put along the shore.
“The defences here are two metres higher now than they were on that night,” says Lord Smith, 61, whose agency defends 3,100 miles of coastline, and protects the country from floods and drought. “In November 2007 there was quite a strong surge that came down the North Sea and hit at Great Yarmouth. We were seriously worried … the surge came to within three inches of the top of the defences, but it was out of sync with high tide so didn’t over-top. It was a very close call. That sort of thing could happen any year.”...
Sunrise over the Thames Barrier, 2008, shot by Ian Dalgliesh, Wikimedia Commons via Geograph UK, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license
Maybe climate change is closer than we think
Tracee Hutchison in ABC (Australia): Australia's recent re-acquaintance with devastating flooding in Queensland and northern NSW this summer has been another sobering reminder of the climatic shape-shifting wreaking havoc with lives and livelihoods across the country.
...Watching on, from the fire-prone drier states, the unspoken narrative is screaming; where will these people go? What will they do for a living? And who will grow the food they were growing for both domestic and export markets? There's even been talk from Queensland Premier Campbell Newman that some flood-prone residential areas in Queensland might have to be relocated to avoid what looks increasingly like the recurring reality of extreme flooding.
So what about when the city in question has numbers nudging the entire population of Australia? That's the reality in Jakarta right now, where record flooding has swamped the CBD for the first time in history. There is increasing talk that relocating the Indonesian capital is the only feasible solution to an escalating problem.
Jakarta is sinking. Literally. Years and years of unregulated private water-bores has drained the city's below-sea-level water table dry. The record rain, coupled with an underdeveloped drainage system and the penchant of Jakartans to use the city's waterways as rubbish dumps, brought this city of 20-odd million to a standstill of a different kind.
For the first time in years there were no cars on Jakarta's streets (other than floating ones); instead, the city more used to lumbering in a grinding traffic gridlock was incapacitated by metre-high water that turned the city's roads into Venice-style canals. It put a whole new - and rather ironic - spin on Jakarta's car-free day campaign to reduce pollution in the city.
...The implications of a non-functioning Jakarta are immense and wide-ranging both for Indonesia and the region. But this is the reality facing the new Jakartan governor Joko Widodo and outgoing Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his government, who are canvassing alternate-capital locations in higher and drier locations....
January 19, 2013, in Jakarta, shot by Thedonz at Indonesian Wikipedia, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
...Watching on, from the fire-prone drier states, the unspoken narrative is screaming; where will these people go? What will they do for a living? And who will grow the food they were growing for both domestic and export markets? There's even been talk from Queensland Premier Campbell Newman that some flood-prone residential areas in Queensland might have to be relocated to avoid what looks increasingly like the recurring reality of extreme flooding.
So what about when the city in question has numbers nudging the entire population of Australia? That's the reality in Jakarta right now, where record flooding has swamped the CBD for the first time in history. There is increasing talk that relocating the Indonesian capital is the only feasible solution to an escalating problem.
Jakarta is sinking. Literally. Years and years of unregulated private water-bores has drained the city's below-sea-level water table dry. The record rain, coupled with an underdeveloped drainage system and the penchant of Jakartans to use the city's waterways as rubbish dumps, brought this city of 20-odd million to a standstill of a different kind.
For the first time in years there were no cars on Jakarta's streets (other than floating ones); instead, the city more used to lumbering in a grinding traffic gridlock was incapacitated by metre-high water that turned the city's roads into Venice-style canals. It put a whole new - and rather ironic - spin on Jakarta's car-free day campaign to reduce pollution in the city.
...The implications of a non-functioning Jakarta are immense and wide-ranging both for Indonesia and the region. But this is the reality facing the new Jakartan governor Joko Widodo and outgoing Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his government, who are canvassing alternate-capital locations in higher and drier locations....
January 19, 2013, in Jakarta, shot by Thedonz at Indonesian Wikipedia, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
Low rainfall and extreme temperatures doubles risk of baby elephant deaths
University of Sheffield News: Extremes of temperature and rainfall are affecting the survival of elephants working in timber camps in Myanmar and can double the risk of death in calves aged up to five, new research from the University of Sheffield has found. With climate change models predicting higher temperatures and months without rainfall; this could decrease the populations of already endangered Asian elephants.
The researchers matched monthly climate records with data on birth and deaths, to track how climate variation affects the chances of elephant survival. It is hoped this research – which was published in the journal Ecology – will make a difference by highlighting the importance of protecting vulnerable calves in captivity from the effects of climate change
Experts at the University of Sheffield accessed unique recordings of the life and deaths of more than 8,000 elephants from Myanmar spanning three generations throughout almost a century. The elephants in the database are semi-captive animals working in the timber industry by pushing and dragging logs.
Lead author and PhD student Hannah Mumby, from the University of Sheffield, said: “Our results show that the optimal conditions for elephant survival correspond to high rainfall and a moderate temperature of 23ºC, but that further from those optimal conditions, elephant survival was lower.
“Overall, switching from good to bad climatic conditions within an average year significantly increases mortality rates of elephants of all ages. The most dramatic example comes from baby elephants, whose risk of death before the age of five approximately doubles in the hottest weather in comparison to the optimal moderate temperature for elephant survival.”...
An Indian elephant in Bandipur, shot by Yathin S Krishnappa, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
The researchers matched monthly climate records with data on birth and deaths, to track how climate variation affects the chances of elephant survival. It is hoped this research – which was published in the journal Ecology – will make a difference by highlighting the importance of protecting vulnerable calves in captivity from the effects of climate change
Experts at the University of Sheffield accessed unique recordings of the life and deaths of more than 8,000 elephants from Myanmar spanning three generations throughout almost a century. The elephants in the database are semi-captive animals working in the timber industry by pushing and dragging logs.
Lead author and PhD student Hannah Mumby, from the University of Sheffield, said: “Our results show that the optimal conditions for elephant survival correspond to high rainfall and a moderate temperature of 23ºC, but that further from those optimal conditions, elephant survival was lower.
“Overall, switching from good to bad climatic conditions within an average year significantly increases mortality rates of elephants of all ages. The most dramatic example comes from baby elephants, whose risk of death before the age of five approximately doubles in the hottest weather in comparison to the optimal moderate temperature for elephant survival.”...
An Indian elephant in Bandipur, shot by Yathin S Krishnappa, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
Labels:
animals,
conservation,
heat waves,
monitoring,
science
Asia–Pacific Analysis: Pushing for a strong climate change policy
Crispin Maslog in SciDev.net: The category 5 super typhoon Bopha, which wreaked havoc in southern and central Philippines in the first week of December 2012, was the world's second deadliest disaster last year.
It wiped out villages, leaving around 1,900 people dead or missing and resulting in losses of more than US$1 billion. Bopha also caused damage worth US$20 million to the Pacific island nation of Palau before it hit the Philippines.
Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, a powerful storm dumped huge amounts of rain on the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia at the close of 2012 and start of this year, forcing thousands of people from their homes. This year also saw unprecedented rains and widespread flooding in Jakarta, Indonesia, affecting around 250,000 people.
It brought to mind the deluge that hit Thailand in 2011, its worst in half a century. This inundated 65 of the country's 77 provinces, drowned more than 800 people and unsettled more than 12 million others. In Australia, firefighters have been struggling since the start of the year to control hundreds of wildfires that broke out across the whole of the southeast due to soaring temperatures and dry, windy conditions, while in eastern areas rescuers have to deal with raging floodwaters.
Experts agree that extreme events of this type are expected to become more frequent as a result of changes to the world's climate linked to global warming...
Aftermath of Typhoon Bopha in Davao City, Philippines in December 2012, shot by Sonny Day, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license
It wiped out villages, leaving around 1,900 people dead or missing and resulting in losses of more than US$1 billion. Bopha also caused damage worth US$20 million to the Pacific island nation of Palau before it hit the Philippines.
Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, a powerful storm dumped huge amounts of rain on the Solomon Islands and New Caledonia at the close of 2012 and start of this year, forcing thousands of people from their homes. This year also saw unprecedented rains and widespread flooding in Jakarta, Indonesia, affecting around 250,000 people.
It brought to mind the deluge that hit Thailand in 2011, its worst in half a century. This inundated 65 of the country's 77 provinces, drowned more than 800 people and unsettled more than 12 million others. In Australia, firefighters have been struggling since the start of the year to control hundreds of wildfires that broke out across the whole of the southeast due to soaring temperatures and dry, windy conditions, while in eastern areas rescuers have to deal with raging floodwaters.
Experts agree that extreme events of this type are expected to become more frequent as a result of changes to the world's climate linked to global warming...
Aftermath of Typhoon Bopha in Davao City, Philippines in December 2012, shot by Sonny Day, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license
Labels:
asia,
disaster,
extreme weather,
governance,
Pacific
‘Mining’ groundwater could fuel climate change, study finds
Randy Shore in the Vancouver Sun: The world’s increasing reliance on deep groundwater for agricultural, residential and industrial use is fuelling crop-damaging soil salinity and depleting the world’s supply of fresh water, according to a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change.
Low-lying crop lands here in B.C. could be threatened, as water brought to the surface for human needs compounds the rise in sea levels predicted by climate change models.
The most immediate impact of over-use of groundwater will be on our ability to feed ourselves, according to one of the study’s co-authors Diana Allen, a professor of earth sciences at Simon Fraser University.
About half of British Columbia’s food supply is imported, much of it from California, which has suffered from drought and is projected to become even more reliant on groundwater as precipitation declines due to climate change.
“Water security and food security are inextricably linked,” Allen said. “And the resources that are available in our most productive agricultural areas are already showing signs of water stress.”...
Irrigation from an aquifer in the Egyptian Sahara, view from NASA
Low-lying crop lands here in B.C. could be threatened, as water brought to the surface for human needs compounds the rise in sea levels predicted by climate change models.
The most immediate impact of over-use of groundwater will be on our ability to feed ourselves, according to one of the study’s co-authors Diana Allen, a professor of earth sciences at Simon Fraser University.
About half of British Columbia’s food supply is imported, much of it from California, which has suffered from drought and is projected to become even more reliant on groundwater as precipitation declines due to climate change.
“Water security and food security are inextricably linked,” Allen said. “And the resources that are available in our most productive agricultural areas are already showing signs of water stress.”...
Irrigation from an aquifer in the Egyptian Sahara, view from NASA
Sunday, February 3, 2013
When Cassandra is an optimist -- a Carbon Based original
According to the myth, Cassandra was a royal beauty of Troy. To woo her, Apollo gave her the gift of prophecy. But she spurned his divine advances, and he cursed her so that everyone would sneer at her predictions and dismiss her as a wafting lunatic. Bad luck for Troy, when she warned of its imminent destruction. Enemies hidden in a wooden horse -- sheer fantasy.
Modern day Cassandras don't even need the appearance of insanity to be discredited. Their market-besotted critics hurl charges of playing to the media, or simply hating America. Apollo's curse is still working perfectly.
Cassandra bubbled up in my memory when our corporate masters gathered in Davos recently at the World Economic Forum. Among speakers was Nicholas Stern, the lead author of the 2006 Stern Review of the Economic Effects of Climate Change, a 700-pager on global warming's impact on the world economy. Stern's words at Davos drew some attention because he declared that recent events are worse than the scenarios in his earlier published view.
In 2006, Stern labeled climate change the largest market failure of all time. According to Stern's first estimate, climate change will cost 5% of global gross domestic product (GDP) every year, if no action is taken. The Review proposed that we invest one percent (later raised to two percent) of global GDP per annum to avoid the worst effects of climate change. The Stern team concluded that benefits of decisive, early action on climate change surpass the cost of cutting carbon emissions, and far outweigh the costs of inaction.
In an echo of Apollo's curse, conservatives deemed Stern a Cassandra. After all, his Review accepted the IPCC assessment reports, and a large portion of the commentariat doubted the veracity of this international climate body. Stern's an eco-fundamentalist, said some. Bjorn Lomborg, the go-to guy for climate confusion and delay, played his customary tune, exaggerating the expense of cutting emissions and downplaying the impacts of business as usual. He tut-tutted at Stern for "fear mongering" and described the Stern team's work as "sensationalized." Surely the market will allow us to innovate our way out of the problem.
The denialists' fellow travelers among economists also attacked the 2006 Review. Many pilloried Stern for his supposedly flawed methodology, such as a discount rate that's lower than the financial world would like. A low discount rate means that present generations are not favored over future generations. Other scholars disliked Stern's doubts about cost-benefit analysis as a guide to climate action.
Now, even after all that bluster, Stern has actually reinforced his dire prophetic credentials. In an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos (as covered by the Guardian), Stern said: "Looking back, I underestimated the risks. The planet and the atmosphere seem to be absorbing less carbon than we expected, and emissions are rising pretty strongly. Some of the effects are coming through more quickly than we thought then."
Had he foreseen the situation would evolve, he says, "I think I would have been a bit more blunt. I would have been much more strong about the risks of a four- or five-degree rise. This is potentially so dangerous that we have to act strongly. Do we want to play Russian roulette with two bullets or one? These risks for many people are existential."
Stern isn't the only Cassandra. Many scientists involved in drafting official climate science publications, such as the IPCC doorstops (next one due out next year) or the Stern Review struggle with the Cassandra accusation. Even as they write their reports, they take care not to overstate the probabilities lest they alienate their audience, and cringe when people cry "doomsayer!" As a result, they eventually wind up saying something akin to Stern -- the dangers are worse than we thought even a short time ago.
It's hard to explain the dire facts about climate change to people who object strenuously to anything other than the best-case scenario. If you believe in only smooth sailing and upbeat projections into the future, climate change threatens your vision of reality.
Stern as well as the climate consensus actually follows the mainstream scientific view of assessing dangers, in which we revise probabilities in the light of more recent experience. After all, a doctor examines a patient who comes in for an annual check-up by noting what's changed. If the man has recently gained a lot of weight, has much higher blood pressure than previously and recently started smoking, any sane doctor knows that plenty has changed. The same sort of steady revision is ongoing in climate research.
Why doubt Cassandra? Her perfectly sane warnings were true --the Trojan horse really did signal their doom. But as long as the Koch Brothers have Apollo on their payroll, Cassandra cannot convince her audience.
Evelyn de Morgan's 1898 painting, "Cassandra"
Modern day Cassandras don't even need the appearance of insanity to be discredited. Their market-besotted critics hurl charges of playing to the media, or simply hating America. Apollo's curse is still working perfectly.
Cassandra bubbled up in my memory when our corporate masters gathered in Davos recently at the World Economic Forum. Among speakers was Nicholas Stern, the lead author of the 2006 Stern Review of the Economic Effects of Climate Change, a 700-pager on global warming's impact on the world economy. Stern's words at Davos drew some attention because he declared that recent events are worse than the scenarios in his earlier published view.
In 2006, Stern labeled climate change the largest market failure of all time. According to Stern's first estimate, climate change will cost 5% of global gross domestic product (GDP) every year, if no action is taken. The Review proposed that we invest one percent (later raised to two percent) of global GDP per annum to avoid the worst effects of climate change. The Stern team concluded that benefits of decisive, early action on climate change surpass the cost of cutting carbon emissions, and far outweigh the costs of inaction.
In an echo of Apollo's curse, conservatives deemed Stern a Cassandra. After all, his Review accepted the IPCC assessment reports, and a large portion of the commentariat doubted the veracity of this international climate body. Stern's an eco-fundamentalist, said some. Bjorn Lomborg, the go-to guy for climate confusion and delay, played his customary tune, exaggerating the expense of cutting emissions and downplaying the impacts of business as usual. He tut-tutted at Stern for "fear mongering" and described the Stern team's work as "sensationalized." Surely the market will allow us to innovate our way out of the problem.
The denialists' fellow travelers among economists also attacked the 2006 Review. Many pilloried Stern for his supposedly flawed methodology, such as a discount rate that's lower than the financial world would like. A low discount rate means that present generations are not favored over future generations. Other scholars disliked Stern's doubts about cost-benefit analysis as a guide to climate action.
Now, even after all that bluster, Stern has actually reinforced his dire prophetic credentials. In an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos (as covered by the Guardian), Stern said: "Looking back, I underestimated the risks. The planet and the atmosphere seem to be absorbing less carbon than we expected, and emissions are rising pretty strongly. Some of the effects are coming through more quickly than we thought then."
Had he foreseen the situation would evolve, he says, "I think I would have been a bit more blunt. I would have been much more strong about the risks of a four- or five-degree rise. This is potentially so dangerous that we have to act strongly. Do we want to play Russian roulette with two bullets or one? These risks for many people are existential."
Stern isn't the only Cassandra. Many scientists involved in drafting official climate science publications, such as the IPCC doorstops (next one due out next year) or the Stern Review struggle with the Cassandra accusation. Even as they write their reports, they take care not to overstate the probabilities lest they alienate their audience, and cringe when people cry "doomsayer!" As a result, they eventually wind up saying something akin to Stern -- the dangers are worse than we thought even a short time ago.
It's hard to explain the dire facts about climate change to people who object strenuously to anything other than the best-case scenario. If you believe in only smooth sailing and upbeat projections into the future, climate change threatens your vision of reality.
Stern as well as the climate consensus actually follows the mainstream scientific view of assessing dangers, in which we revise probabilities in the light of more recent experience. After all, a doctor examines a patient who comes in for an annual check-up by noting what's changed. If the man has recently gained a lot of weight, has much higher blood pressure than previously and recently started smoking, any sane doctor knows that plenty has changed. The same sort of steady revision is ongoing in climate research.
Why doubt Cassandra? Her perfectly sane warnings were true --the Trojan horse really did signal their doom. But as long as the Koch Brothers have Apollo on their payroll, Cassandra cannot convince her audience.
Evelyn de Morgan's 1898 painting, "Cassandra"
Labels:
Brian Thomas,
BT,
denial,
psychology,
scenarios
Friday, February 1, 2013
The 1953 floods 60 years on: Have we learned lesson?
Cambridge Network: Sixty years after the devastating floods of 1953, the UK remains under threat of rising waters in the face of climate change and increased rainfall. Continued investment in infrastructure must be matched with increasing the flood resilience of communities, say experts.
Flooding experts from the UK and abroad gathered to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the 1953 floods in a reception held by the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) this week. His Royal Highness The Duke of Gloucester KG GCVO provided the opening address.
On 31st January and 1st February 1953, England, Scotland, the Netherlands and Belgium were devastated by some of the worst flooding in recent memory. The North Sea Flood of 1953 was one of the most devastating natural disasters ever recorded in the United Kingdom. Over 1,600 kilometers of coastline was damaged, and sea walls were breached, inundating 1,000 square kilometers. Flooding forced 30,000 people to be evacuated from their homes, and 24,000 properties were seriously damaged.
Six decades on, rising waters remain one of the UK’s greatest challenges. Rising sea levels due to climate change and increasingly severe and frequent rainfall has increased the risk of flooding throughout the UK. Just this week, nearly 50 flood warnings and 200 alerts have been in place across the country, with south-west England and Wales expected to be worst hit.
Professor David Balmforth, CIWEM Fellow, ICE vice president and chair of the Inter-Institutional Flooding Group, said coastal regions are now better protected by sea defences, reliable flood forecasting, and well-established emergency response measures, but raised concerns that progress on making communities more “flood resilient” was less advanced.
...Frank Heemskerk of Royal HaskoningDHV said that the Dutch have changed their approach in recent years, “We now focus on working with water and nature instead of against it. This means creating opportunities by combining multiple functions when designing flood defences.”...
1953 flood level at the Harbour Inn, near Southwold, shot by Nigel Chadwick, Wikimedia Commons via Geograph UK, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license
Flooding experts from the UK and abroad gathered to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the 1953 floods in a reception held by the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE) this week. His Royal Highness The Duke of Gloucester KG GCVO provided the opening address.
On 31st January and 1st February 1953, England, Scotland, the Netherlands and Belgium were devastated by some of the worst flooding in recent memory. The North Sea Flood of 1953 was one of the most devastating natural disasters ever recorded in the United Kingdom. Over 1,600 kilometers of coastline was damaged, and sea walls were breached, inundating 1,000 square kilometers. Flooding forced 30,000 people to be evacuated from their homes, and 24,000 properties were seriously damaged.
Six decades on, rising waters remain one of the UK’s greatest challenges. Rising sea levels due to climate change and increasingly severe and frequent rainfall has increased the risk of flooding throughout the UK. Just this week, nearly 50 flood warnings and 200 alerts have been in place across the country, with south-west England and Wales expected to be worst hit.
Professor David Balmforth, CIWEM Fellow, ICE vice president and chair of the Inter-Institutional Flooding Group, said coastal regions are now better protected by sea defences, reliable flood forecasting, and well-established emergency response measures, but raised concerns that progress on making communities more “flood resilient” was less advanced.
...Frank Heemskerk of Royal HaskoningDHV said that the Dutch have changed their approach in recent years, “We now focus on working with water and nature instead of against it. This means creating opportunities by combining multiple functions when designing flood defences.”...
1953 flood level at the Harbour Inn, near Southwold, shot by Nigel Chadwick, Wikimedia Commons via Geograph UK, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license
When mangroves no longer protect the coastline in Guyana
Institut de recherche pour le developpement media centre: The mangroves of Guyana, in South America, are gradually disappearing. Contrary to the coastline of its near neighbour, French Guiana, which is still relatively protected, that of Guyana has been largely developed. In order to develop agriculture and aquaculture, earth dikes were built, destroying the greater part of the mangrove forest.
A study conducted by IRD researchers and the University of Aix-Marseille shows that the reduced protection provided by mangroves against the swell will lead to the large-scale erosion of 370 km of the country's coastline. Only one ecosystem restoration programme will help contain this phenomenon.
...The mangrove forests in the Guyanas (French Guiana, Surinam and Guyana), which spread across the Orinoco and Amazon deltas, are among the most extensive in the world. This particular ecosystem, between the earth and the sea, plays a major role in protecting the particularly unstable muddy coastline against erosion. However, most of the Guyana mangroves have been destroyed to develop the coastal plain. The retreating mangrove wall will result in large-scale coastal erosion, threatening populations and their economic activities, as demonstrated in a study conducted by researchers from IRD and the University of Aix-Marseille.
Although the French Guiana coastline remains protected by human developments for the time being, that of Guyana is already highly disrupted. The entire coastal strip is now inhabited*. In order to conquer this space and subsequently develop the aquaculture and agriculture - mainly rice cultivation - the coastal swamp areas have been transformed into polders. To this end, dikes have been built, reducing the 1km mangrove strip to just a few dozen metres wide. More than three quarters of Guyana's 450 km of coastline along the Atlantic are currently diked up. Coastal stability now depends on these earthen dikes.
...However, these dikes do not provide the same level of protection as mangroves against the swell, which is the main cause of erosion. Moreover, they would not withstand the strength of the waves if the mangroves were to disappear completely. Yet, they prevent the sedimentation of mud coming from the Amazon, which enables forest regeneration...
A study conducted by IRD researchers and the University of Aix-Marseille shows that the reduced protection provided by mangroves against the swell will lead to the large-scale erosion of 370 km of the country's coastline. Only one ecosystem restoration programme will help contain this phenomenon.
...The mangrove forests in the Guyanas (French Guiana, Surinam and Guyana), which spread across the Orinoco and Amazon deltas, are among the most extensive in the world. This particular ecosystem, between the earth and the sea, plays a major role in protecting the particularly unstable muddy coastline against erosion. However, most of the Guyana mangroves have been destroyed to develop the coastal plain. The retreating mangrove wall will result in large-scale coastal erosion, threatening populations and their economic activities, as demonstrated in a study conducted by researchers from IRD and the University of Aix-Marseille.
Although the French Guiana coastline remains protected by human developments for the time being, that of Guyana is already highly disrupted. The entire coastal strip is now inhabited*. In order to conquer this space and subsequently develop the aquaculture and agriculture - mainly rice cultivation - the coastal swamp areas have been transformed into polders. To this end, dikes have been built, reducing the 1km mangrove strip to just a few dozen metres wide. More than three quarters of Guyana's 450 km of coastline along the Atlantic are currently diked up. Coastal stability now depends on these earthen dikes.
...However, these dikes do not provide the same level of protection as mangroves against the swell, which is the main cause of erosion. Moreover, they would not withstand the strength of the waves if the mangroves were to disappear completely. Yet, they prevent the sedimentation of mud coming from the Amazon, which enables forest regeneration...
Increases in extreme rainfall linked to global warming
University of Adelaide News & Events: A worldwide review of global rainfall data led by the University of Adelaide has found that the intensity of the most extreme rainfall events is increasing across the globe as temperatures rise. In the most comprehensive review of changes to extreme rainfall ever undertaken, researchers evaluated the association between extreme rainfall and atmospheric temperatures at more than 8000 weather gauging stations around the world.
Lead author Dr Seth Westra said, "The results are that rainfall extremes are increasing on average globally. They show that there is a 7% increase in extreme rainfall intensity for every degree increase in global atmospheric temperature. "Assuming an increase in global average temperature by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century, this could mean very substantial increases in rainfall intensity as a result of climate change."
Dr Westra, a Senior Lecturer with the University of Adelaide's School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering" and member of the Environment Institute, said trends in rainfall extremes were examined over the period from 1900 to 2009 to determine whether they were becoming more intense or occurring more frequently.
"The results show that rainfall extremes were increasing over this period, and appear to be linked to the increase in global temperature of nearly a degree which also took place over this time. If extreme rainfall events continue to intensify, we can expect to see floods occurring more frequently around the world," Dr Westra said.
The strongest increases occurred in the tropical countries, although some level of increase seems to be taking place at the majority of weather gauging stations. Dr Westra said, "Most of these tropical countries are very poor and thus not well placed to adapt to the increased risk of flooding, which puts them in a larger threat of devastation."....
A heavy rain in Prague, shot by Hyena, public domain
Lead author Dr Seth Westra said, "The results are that rainfall extremes are increasing on average globally. They show that there is a 7% increase in extreme rainfall intensity for every degree increase in global atmospheric temperature. "Assuming an increase in global average temperature by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century, this could mean very substantial increases in rainfall intensity as a result of climate change."
Dr Westra, a Senior Lecturer with the University of Adelaide's School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering" and member of the Environment Institute, said trends in rainfall extremes were examined over the period from 1900 to 2009 to determine whether they were becoming more intense or occurring more frequently.
"The results show that rainfall extremes were increasing over this period, and appear to be linked to the increase in global temperature of nearly a degree which also took place over this time. If extreme rainfall events continue to intensify, we can expect to see floods occurring more frequently around the world," Dr Westra said.
The strongest increases occurred in the tropical countries, although some level of increase seems to be taking place at the majority of weather gauging stations. Dr Westra said, "Most of these tropical countries are very poor and thus not well placed to adapt to the increased risk of flooding, which puts them in a larger threat of devastation."....
A heavy rain in Prague, shot by Hyena, public domain
Mekong Delta: No common voice found yet in adapting to climate change
Vietnam Net Bridge: Vietnam is an agriculture economy with 70 percent of its territory in urban area and 75 percent of population earning their living on rice fields. The agriculture production makes up tens of billions of dollars to the export turnover. However, the production has been threatened by the climate change.
Kosei Hashiguchi from JICA (the Japan International Cooperation Agency) said at a workshop on the response to the climate change in late January 2013 that the seven coastal provinces in Mekong Delta would be most seriously affected by the saltwater intrusion and sea water rise.
The seven provinces include Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Vinh Long, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau and Kien Giang. According to the expert, the temperature in Mekong Delta has increased by 0.5-0.9oC over the last 30 years. Meanwhile, in the future, the temperature would increase by 0.2-0.3oC more every decade.
As for the sea water rise, the water level has increased by five centimeters over the last 10 years, while it is expected to rise by 8 centimeters in every 10 years. The temperature increase would lead to the decrease in the rice productivity. The rice yield would decrease by 10 percent by 2030, by 15 percent by 2050 and 25 percent by 2100.
Meanwhile, Do Minh Nhut, Deputy Director of the Kien Giang provincial agriculture department, said the saltwater intrusion and sea water rise would influence 1/3 of the total rice field area in the province, estimated at 100,000 hectares.
JICA has predicted that most provinces in Mekong Delta would be influenced by the climate change, and that Ca Mau alone would suffer the damage worth VND16 trillion a year due to the climate change by 2100....
Life on the Mekong Delta, in Cai Be, shot by Milei.vencel, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
Kosei Hashiguchi from JICA (the Japan International Cooperation Agency) said at a workshop on the response to the climate change in late January 2013 that the seven coastal provinces in Mekong Delta would be most seriously affected by the saltwater intrusion and sea water rise.
The seven provinces include Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Vinh Long, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau and Kien Giang. According to the expert, the temperature in Mekong Delta has increased by 0.5-0.9oC over the last 30 years. Meanwhile, in the future, the temperature would increase by 0.2-0.3oC more every decade.
As for the sea water rise, the water level has increased by five centimeters over the last 10 years, while it is expected to rise by 8 centimeters in every 10 years. The temperature increase would lead to the decrease in the rice productivity. The rice yield would decrease by 10 percent by 2030, by 15 percent by 2050 and 25 percent by 2100.
Meanwhile, Do Minh Nhut, Deputy Director of the Kien Giang provincial agriculture department, said the saltwater intrusion and sea water rise would influence 1/3 of the total rice field area in the province, estimated at 100,000 hectares.
JICA has predicted that most provinces in Mekong Delta would be influenced by the climate change, and that Ca Mau alone would suffer the damage worth VND16 trillion a year due to the climate change by 2100....
Life on the Mekong Delta, in Cai Be, shot by Milei.vencel, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license
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Risk financing is key to building resilience against disasters
Asian Development Bank: Disaster losses have risen faster than Asia-Pacific’s economy has expanded, says a new report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which recommends regional governments find ways to offer disaster risk financing instruments such as calamity funds, tax credits, and catastrophe bonds to strengthen disaster resilience.
“Asia’s economic gain is being eroded by disasters, often hitting the poorest hardest,” said Bindu Lohani, ADB’s Vice President for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development. “As the global region most vulnerable to climate change, we no longer have a choice but to focus on disaster risk management.”
Significant investments to strengthen disaster resilience can reverse this, says Investing in Resilience - Ensuring a Disaster-Resistant Future, which notes that a wide range of gaps and obstacles sit behind the existing trend of rising disaster losses, such as inadequate risk data, weak and misaligned incentives, poor legislative and regulatory frameworks and enforcement, disjointed government, limited funding, and power disparities.
Natural hazards continue to cause significant loss of life in Asia and the Pacific. Between 1970 and 2010, 1.7 million hazard-related deaths were recorded in the region – 51% of the global total.
The report examines the instruments and mechanisms that currently exist in Asia to protect against disasters, and offers solutions for stronger disaster resilience, including how disaster risks can be financed through disaster risk insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bonds, and other means....
Click through to the ADB website for a closer look at their infographic
“Asia’s economic gain is being eroded by disasters, often hitting the poorest hardest,” said Bindu Lohani, ADB’s Vice President for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development. “As the global region most vulnerable to climate change, we no longer have a choice but to focus on disaster risk management.”
Significant investments to strengthen disaster resilience can reverse this, says Investing in Resilience - Ensuring a Disaster-Resistant Future, which notes that a wide range of gaps and obstacles sit behind the existing trend of rising disaster losses, such as inadequate risk data, weak and misaligned incentives, poor legislative and regulatory frameworks and enforcement, disjointed government, limited funding, and power disparities.
Natural hazards continue to cause significant loss of life in Asia and the Pacific. Between 1970 and 2010, 1.7 million hazard-related deaths were recorded in the region – 51% of the global total.
The report examines the instruments and mechanisms that currently exist in Asia to protect against disasters, and offers solutions for stronger disaster resilience, including how disaster risks can be financed through disaster risk insurance, reinsurance, catastrophe bonds, and other means....
Click through to the ADB website for a closer look at their infographic
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