Invasive species in the Great Lakes by 2063

A press release from McGill University: The Great Lakes have been invaded by more non-native species than any other freshwater ecosystem in the world. In spite of increasing efforts to stem the tide of invasion threats, the lakes remain vulnerable, according to scientists from McGill University and colleagues in Canada and the United States.

If no new regulations are enforced, they predict new waves of invasions and identify some species that could invade the Lakes over the next 50 years.

Over the past two centuries, more than 180 non-native species have been recorded in the Great Lakes and the rivers that flow into them. Nearly 20% of these species are considered to be harmful ecologically and economically, posing threats to the Lakes’ native biodiversity and multibillion dollar fishery. New threats are emerging because of risks associated with trade in live organisms and climate change, the researchers caution in a study in the Journal of Great Lakes Research.

In recent years, the pace of species invasions appears to have slowed dramatically, as measures have been taken to protect the lakes. This is why the three scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic and status quo) the researchers considered for the next 50 years hinge on the implementation and effectiveness of regulations aimed at blocking current means of entry for invasive species.

...In the most optimistic scenario, the risk of invasion is minimized by harmonized policies enforced by Canada and the United States. “Invasions are a transboundary issue,” says McGill professor Anthony Ricciardi, an invasive-species biologist who supervised the study. “In addition to harmonized regulations on live trade, the two countries must coordinate early detection and rapid response to new threats – before an invasion has progressed beyond control.”...

A photo from the EPA of a ship docked in Duluth, Minnesota

Drought led to massive “dead zone” in Lake Erie

A press release from the Carnegie Institution: Lake Erie just can’t catch a break. The lake has experienced harmful algal blooms and severe oxygen-depleted “dead zones” for years, but now a team of researchers led by Carnegie’s Anna Michalak and Yuntao Zhou has shown that the widespread drought in 2012 was associated with the largest dead zone since at least the mid-1980s.

Until now, the size of the dead zone each summer and the factors explaining the variability from year to year have been elusive. Using 28 years of data collected in and around the lake, the team
was able to “measure” the size of the dead zone each summer and identify factors that explain the year-to-year variability for the first time. They found that the 2012 drought, with extremely low water inflow from tributaries, was associated with a record-breaking dead zone in the lake, and that meteorological factors together with agricultural practices explain why these events vary annually. Previous studies have focused on phosphorous from agricultural runoff as the primary driver of the lake’s dead zones, but this analysis shows that the inflow of water from tributaries is actually the largest explanatory factor. The results are published in Environmental Science & Technology.

“Fresh water dead zones—areas depleted of oxygen—result when massive amounts of phosphorus and nitrogen are added to the water, often from fertilizer runoff from agriculture,” explained Michalak. “The excessive nutrients promote excessive growth of algae. When the algae die and decompose, the oxygen in the water gets used up and can drop to levels too low for aquatic life to survive. This happens especially when the water is stratified, with warm water layered on top of cold water, keeping new oxygen from reaching the bottom of the lake.”

The revelation about the size of the dead zone in 2012 comes on the heels of the record-setting harmful algal bloom that occurred in 2011, and the closure of the Toledo water supply in August 2014 due to high concentrations of Cyanobacteria-produced toxins at the city’s water intake. Whereas the record-setting dead-zone event occurred during the 2012 drought, the 2011 record-setting algal bloom was attributed to intense spring storms and various other confounding factors....

NASA image of a 2011 toxic algae bloom in Lake Erie

Lake Erie increasingly susceptible to large cyanobacteria blooms

A press release from the University of Michigan: Lake Erie has become increasingly susceptible to large blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria since 2002, potentially complicating efforts to rein in the problem in the wake of this year's Toledo drinking water crisis, according to a new study led by University of Michigan researchers.

Since the detection of the toxin microcystin left nearly half a million Ohio and Michigan residents without drinking water for several days in early August, discussions of ways to prevent a recurrence have largely focused on the need to reduce the amount of phosphorus fertilizer that washes off croplands and flows into western Lake Erie to trigger harmful cyanobacteria blooms.

In a study published online Oct. 8 in the journal Water Resources Research, scientists from U-M and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conclude that microcystin-producing cyanobacteria in Lake Erie are becoming more sensitive to phosphorus and that reductions may have to cut far deeper than recently proposed targets.

"Our results suggest that current phosphorus loading targets will be insufficient for reducing the intensity of cyanobacteria blooms to desired levels, so long as the lake remains in a heightened state of bloom susceptibility," said lead author Daniel Obenour, formerly of the U-M Water Center and now at North Carolina State University. Other authors are Don Scavia of U-M and Andrew Gronewold and Craig Stow of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

...Though the total amount of phosphorus entering the lake seems to be the best predictor of bloom size, that variable alone doesn't fully explain the observed size increase during the study period examined by the team, 2002 to 2013....

NASA image of a toxic algae bloom in Lake Erie

Straits of Mackinac ‘worst possible place’ for a Great Lakes oil spill

University of Michigan News: Because the strong currents in the Straits of Mackinac reverse direction every few days, a rupture of the oil pipeline beneath the channel would quickly contaminate shorelines miles away in both lakes Michigan and Huron, according to a new University of Michigan study commissioned by the National Wildlife Federation.

In one scenario examined in the study and accompanying animations, oil from a hypothetical pipeline break reached Mackinac Island and Round Island after 12 hours and Bois Blanc Island after two days. All three islands are in westernmost Lake Huron, just east of the straits.

Within 20 days of a spill in the Straits of Mackinac -- which separates Michigan's upper and lower peninsulas and connects lakes Michigan and Huron -- oil would spread as far west as Beaver Island in Lake Michigan, a distance of roughly 35 miles, and as far southeast as Rogers City in Lake Huron, a distance of about 50 miles, according to the computer-simulation study released today and conducted by hydrodynamics expert David Schwab of the U-M Water Center.

The area around the 5-mile-wide straits is considered ecologically sensitive and is a major tourist draw. "If you were to pick the worst possible place for an oil spill in the Great Lakes, this would be it," Schwab said. "The currents are powerful and change direction frequently. In the event of an oil spill, these factors would lead to a big mess that would be very difficult to contain."

Just west of the Mackinac Bridge, two 20-inch underwater pipes carry 23 million gallons of crude oil daily through the straits. The 61-year-old pipeline is operated by Enbridge Inc.

..."Any material released into the straits will go into both Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, which would complicate containment efforts," Schwab said. "Hopefully, these simulations and animations will be useful in understanding and preparing for potential impacts."...

Under the Mackinac Bridge crossing the Straits of Mackinac, shot by varnent, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Great Lakes evaporation study dispels misconceptions, points to need for expanded monitoring program

University of Michigan News: The recent Arctic blast that gripped much of the nation will likely contribute to a healthy rise in Great Lakes water levels in 2014, new research shows. But the processes responsible for that welcome outcome are not as simple and straightforward as you might think.

Yes, extreme winter cold increases ice cover on the Great Lakes, which in turn reduces evaporation by preventing water vapor from escaping into the air. But this simplistic view of winter ice as a mere "cap" on Great Lakes evaporation is giving way to a more nuanced conception, one that considers the complex interplay among evaporation, ice cover and water temperature at different times of year.

In a report released today by the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center (GLISA)—a federally funded collaboration between the University of Michigan and Michigan State University — a team of American and Canadian scientists notes that while ice cover affects evaporation, the reverse is true as well: evaporation rates in the autumn help determine the extent of winter ice cover.

High evaporation rates in the fall can nearly offset water-level gains that result from extensive winter ice cover, complicating efforts to forecast Great Lakes water levels, which have declined in most of the lakes since the late 1990s, rebounding somewhat during a wet 2013.

The newfound appreciation for evaporation's varied roles reveals gaps in our current understanding of fundamental environmental processes and highlights the need for sustained funding for the project's Great Lakes evaporation monitoring network, said John Lenters, the study's lead investigator and a senior scientist at Ann Arbor-based LimnoTech, an environmental consulting firm.

The binational group's network of five stations is one of the few sources of direct, year-round observations of Great Lakes evaporation. "It's our hope that we will soon have the funding and infrastructure in place to maintain—and even expand—the network well into the future," Lenters said. "This will be extremely important for improving Great Lakes water-level forecasting and for understanding the long-term impacts of climate change."...

A weather station on Granite Island, Lake Superior. This weather station is part of a five-site network to measure year-round Great Lakes evaporation. In addition to evaporation, the weather station measures air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, carbon dioxide, wind speed and direction, precipitation, solar radiation, and water temperature. Image credit: John Lenters

Extreme algal blooms: The new normal?

Space Daily: A research team, led by Carnegie's Anna Michalak, has determined that the 2011 record-breaking algal bloom in Lake Erie was triggered by long-term agricultural practices coupled with extreme precipitation, followed by weak lake circulation and warm temperatures. The team also predicts that, unless agricultural policies change, the lake will continue to experience extreme blooms. The research is published in the online early edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences the week of April 1, 2013.

"The perfect storm of weather events and agricultural practices that occurred in 2011 is unfortunately consistent with ongoing trends, which means that more huge algal blooms can be expected in the future unless a scientifically guided management plan is implemented for the region," remarked Michalak.

Fresh water algal blooms can result when excessive amounts of phosphorus and nitrogen are added to the water, typically as runoff from fertilized agriculture. These excess nutrients encourage unusual growth of algae and aquatic plants....

A toxic algae bloom in Lake Erie in 2011

Lakes Michigan, Huron sink to lowest level ever

Jim Lynch in the Detroit News: In the nearly 100 years researchers have catalogued the rise and fall of the Great Lakes, Michigan and Huron have never seen a month like January. The two-lake system recorded its lowest-ever level for a month, a mean of 576.02 feet above sea level. It's a number that dips below the all-time low for January — 576.12 feet — as well as the all-time low for any month, 576.05 feet in March 1964.

For those who live along or play in the waters of the Great Lakes, the news is disturbing but unsurprising. Each of the lakes has lingered below its long-term averages for years as the region endured drought-like conditions. When the 2011-12 winter produced less-than-expected snowfall and the ensuing spring produced little rainfall, the seeds were sown for records. Low lakes have meant recreational watercraft running aground, shorelines and beaches expanding as the lakes recede, changing fish habitats and forcing shipping vessels to drastically reduce the tonnage they carry.

The record comes as Gov. Rick Snyder prepares to unveil his 2013-14 budget Thursday in which he's expected to call for $11 million to dredge harbors to keep access to open waters, the Associated Press reported late Friday.

Other steps to alleviate the effects of low water levels will include expediting Department of Environmental Quality permits for dredging projects, pushing for more federal funding and devising a long-term strategy to pay for keeping harbors deep enough for recreational and commercial vessels, according to the AP.

..."A lot of people don't realize that lake levels are extremely low," Snyder said in Grand Rapids last week. "It is critically important to tourism and other things in Michigan, in terms of normal business and commerce."...

Chicago and Lake Michigan, shot by Mike Boehmer, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Environmental threat map highlights Great Lakes restoration challenges

Space Daily via SPX: A comprehensive map three years in the making is telling the story of humans' impact on the Great Lakes, identifying how "environmental stressors" stretching from Minnesota to Ontario are shaping the future of an ecosystem that contains 20 percent of the world's fresh water.

In an article to be published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a group led by researchers at the University of Michigan reports on an expansive and detailed effort to map and cross-compare environmental stresses and the ecological services provided by the five lakes.

Their efforts have produced the most comprehensive map to date of Great Lakes' stressors, and also the first map to explicitly account for all major types of stressors on the lakes in a quantitative way.

"Despite clear societal dependence on the Great Lakes, their condition continues to be degraded by numerous environmental stressors," said David Allan, the project's lead researcher and a professor of aquatic sciences at the University of Michigan's School of Natural Resources and Environment.

The map gives federal and regional officials an unprecedented scientific foundation upon which to sustainably manage the Great Lakes, the researchers conclude.

The environmental stress map was developed by a bi-national team of researchers from academia and environmental organizations known as the Great Lakes Environmental Assessment and Mapping (GLEAM) project. The team drew upon the latest and best data from federal and state agencies as well as non-governmental organizations and individual researchers....

The Bayfield River entering Lake Huron, shot by Doc Searls, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license

Lower water levels in the Great Lakes could hurt region, industry

Anthony Raap in NWI.com via the Medill News Service:   Climate change is expected to drop water levels in the Great Lakes, affecting industry and the region. Levels could drop anywhere from a few inches to several feet as water evaporates in the drought conditions, experts said Wednesday.

Extreme weather will become more commonplace. Heat waves will be more severe. Drought will be more frequent, said Don Wuebbles, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois. Those are local impacts of climate change that are already occurring, Wuebbles said,

Even the 46 percent increase in extreme rainfall in the last 50 years won't overcome diminishing Great Lakes levels, said Wuebbles, who is co-authoring the long-awaited 2013 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In short, the climate is changing, and the only logical explanation for this change is human activity, said Wuebbles, who shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with the IPCC and Al Gore for their work on climate change.

"We're going to have to learn to adapt to climate change," Wuebbles said during the panel discussion "Great Lakes Water Scarcity and Regional Economic Development" at Northwestern University's Chicago campus. Panelists agreed that the Great Lakes region would be hard hit if more isn't done about climate change. This year, the region and most of the country has experienced record heat, which has led to evaporation.

In Chicago, millions of people rely on Lake Michigan water. And suburbs strapped with declining well water supplies may be hard-pressed to link to declining lake supplies. Panelists emphasized that the effects of climate change stretch well beyond the Midwest. The Great Lakes hold roughly 20 percent of the world's freshwater supply....

Foster Beach, Chicago, shot by Alanscottwalker, Wikimedia Commons,  under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license

'Dead zones' could happen in the Great Lakes

Matthew Hall in the Holland Sentinel (Michigan): Scientists are studying how extreme weather associated with climate change may produce more of the algae that create dead zones in the Great Lakes. Figuring it out may help government agencies manage the threat algae poses in light of further projected changes in climate.

Climate change presents a “perfect storm” for the Great Lakes because the sequence and intensity of extreme weather creates just the right conditions for blooms to flourish, said R. Jan Stevenson, co-director of Michigan State University’s Center for Water Sciences. He heads a research team studying the situation.

This past summer, dry conditions and hot weather have contributed to pea soup conditions in parts of Lake Macatawa at Holland. The Ottawa County Health Department issued no-body-contact warnings for two local beaches in August.

Over the next three years, the work will include modeling of Muskegon Lake in Muskegon County, Saginaw Bay in Lake Huron, Grand Traverse Bay on Lake Michigan and the Grand River – the state’s longest river — which is one of the biggest sources of nutrients that flow into Lake Michigan, Stevenson said.

Algal blooms are rapid increases in algae caused by an excess of nutrients like the phosphorus and nitrogen often used in farm fertilizers. Harmful blooms can produce natural toxins. And when they die and decompose, they use up dissolved oxygen, creating a “dead zone” that suffocates fish and other organisms....

Lake Huron, viewed by NASA

Massive ecological change predicted for Canada

CNews (Canada) via QMI Agency: Many parts of Canada are predicted to see massive ecological changes over the next century, according to NASA. Researchers from the space agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology investigated how Earth's plant life is likely to react over the next three centuries to changes in climate brought about by rising levels of human-produced greenhouse gases.

"While warnings of melting glaciers, rising sea levels and other environmental changes are illustrative and important, ultimately, it's the ecological consequences that matter most," said the study's lead scientist, Jon Bergengren, in a news release.

One of the consequences, their computer model predicts, is that most of the land not covered by ice or desert will undergo at least a 30% change in plant cover — changes that will require humans and animals to adapt and often relocate.

Besides significantly altering plant life, the study predicts climate change will "disrupt the ecological balance between ... plant and animal species, reduce biodiversity and adversely affect Earth's water, energy, carbon and other element cycles," NASA said.

They identified ecologically sensitive "hot spots" that will undergo the greatest degree of species turnover, including North America's Great Lakes and Great Plains areas. They also expect dramatic changes in "ecological community types" — such as forest, grassland or tundra — throughout the northern hemisphere, particularly along the boundaries of boreal forests...

Tundra in the Northwest Territories, shot by David Adamec, Wikimedia Commons, public domain

Climate change could affect Lake Superior economy

Katey Rusch in WDIO.com: Over the years data has indicated that the temperature of Lake Superior is rising and water levels are lowering. Now a new study shows this could be a trend that negatively affects the area economy. "If you can't get to an ocean you have to get to a great lake," said Kim Colburn-Lidell, who was visiting the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore Sunday.

Lake Superior is home to state and national parks as well as vacations. But according to a new study, due to pollution the lake's climate is warming for the worse. "We can't put this off any longer the time is now," said Bayfield Mayor, Larry MacDonald.

The study called the "Great Lakes National Parks in Peril the Threats of Climate Disription" was conducted by two environmental organizations, the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the National Resources Defense Council. The study indicates that Lake Superior's temperature has risen by 4.5 degrees since the 1976. The study predicts this temperature could rise 14 degrees in this century. This is a scary thought to the Mayor of Bayfield, Wisconsin, whose city tourism depends on lake destinations.

"Our tourism economy is based on the Apostle Islands and the clear water and the clean air," said MacDonald. "If any of that is affected negatively so are we." The other concern about this study for Mayor MacDonald is lowering Lake Superior water levels which according to the study could drop by two feet in the next fifty years.

...The study is based on the impact climate change will have on the Great Lakes National Parks but Mayor MacDonald said the findings of this study should concern all who live on the big lakes, including those affected by the shipping industry. "For every inch the lake goes down the shipping industry is greatly affected," said MacDonald. "Everything is going to cost more to ship."...

The entrance to the harbor at Grand Marais, Cook County, Minnesota, USA, on the north shore of Lake Superior. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers constructed the breakwater at the harbor. US Army Corps of Engineers photo

Withdrawals of Great Lakes water bear watching

Andrew Stern in Reuters: States bordering on the Great Lakes are adhering -- with a few exceptions -- to a compact not to withdraw too much lake water that sustains 40 million people, environmental groups said on Tuesday. Without keen oversight, the Great Lakes that contain one-fifth of the world's supply of fresh water could experience "death by a thousand straws," said Marc Smith of the National Wildlife Federation, which released a report on the states' stewardship.

By and large, the Great Lakes compact reached in 2008 among the eight bordering states and two Canadian provinces has been implemented successfully, though all the states have failed to meet at least one of the pact's 2010 conservation guidelines, the environmental group said.

Water levels in the five Great Lakes are fairly stable at the moment, though about a foot below average this summer in the three largest -- Lake Superior, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are slightly above their July averages, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

The compact prohibits new and increased diversions of water from the lakes, with strict rules for exceptions. Exceptions to the compact's sustainable approach include Ohio legislation that allows large withdrawals from tributaries to Lake Erie without a review. A plan in Illinois to spread its water allotment to Chicago's nearby suburbs was also cited.

"Ohio is flouting several requirements of the compact" with its bill, which has yet to be signed by Governor John Kasich, said Sara Gosman of the Wildlife Federation. "Uncontrolled, larger withdrawals mean more harmful algal blooms, less water for hydropower and could impact drinking water," said Kristy Meyer of the Ohio Environmental Council....

Aerial view of the port and harbor at Conneaut, Ohio, USA, on Lake Erie. View is to the northeast over the lake. US Army Corps of Engineers photo