Sunday, December 9, 2012

More potent than carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide levels in California may be nearly three times higher than previously thought

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory News Center: Using a new method for estimating greenhouse gases that combines atmospheric measurements with model predictions, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) researchers have found that the level of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas, in California may be 2.5 to 3 times greater than the current inventory.

At that level, total N2O emissions—which are believed to come primarily from nitrogen fertilizers used in agricultural production—would account for about 8 percent of California’s total greenhouse gas emissions. The findings were recently published in a paper titled “Seasonal variations in N2O emissions from central California” in Geophysical Research Letters. Earlier this year, using the same methodology, the researchers found that levels of methane, another potent greenhouse gas, in California may be up to 1.8 times greater than previous estimates.

“If our results are accurate, then it suggests that N2O makes up not 3 percent of California’s total effective greenhouse gases but closer to 10 percent,” said Marc Fischer, lead researcher on both studies. “And taken together with our previous estimates of methane emissions, that suggests those two gases may make up 20 to 25 percent of California’s total emissions. That’s starting to become roughly comparable to emissions from fossil fuel CO2.”

Accurate estimates of the California’s greenhouse gas emissions are important as the state works to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, as mandated by a law known as AB 32. The vast majority of the reduction efforts have been focused on CO2….

This map shows the amount of nitrous oxide emissions in California (in nanomoles per square meter per second). The "x" represents the location of the measurement tower in Walnut Grove, CA. From the LBNL website

  

Slow-onset disasters take toll

IRIN: In southwestern Bangladesh, recent large-scale water-logging - stagnant flood water that fails to recede - threatens agriculture and public health for years to come. It is a crisis in the making, highlighting the risks slow-onset natural disasters pose to poor countries, and how ill-prepared officials are to respond - even with ample early warning.

“At first glance, one would expect that, the slower the onset of a disaster, the better prepared we should be to mitigate its impacts,” UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction Margareta Wahlström told IRIN. “What we often find, instead, is that we [are] far too late to react.”

Last year, residents in Thailand had months of flood warnings, beginning in July 2011, as flooding upcountry triggered by a tropical storm slowly wound its way south. Flooding persisted in some areas until mid-January 2012. But even with ample warning, the disaster killed at least 628 people, affected more than 13 million people and damaged 20,000sqkm of farmland.

Khurshid Alam, former head of livelihoods and disaster reduction at ActionAid’s office in Bangladesh, said slow-onset disasters receive less media attention and are less dramatic than flash floods or cyclones. “The persistent water-logging of the Satkhira region in the country’s southwest is currently the most significant slow-onset disaster plaguing the country.”…

A village in the Satkhira district, in the Sundarbans, shot by C.S. Sprung, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Declining air pollution levels continue to improve life expectancy in US

A press release from the Harvard School of Public Health: A new study led by researchers at Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) has found an association between reductions in fine particulate matter and improved life expectancy in 545 counties in the U.S. from 2000 to 2007. It is the largest study to date to find beneficial effects to public health of continuing to reduce air pollution levels in the U.S.  The study appears in the December 3, 2012 online edition of the journal Epidemiology.

“Despite the fact that the U.S. population as a whole is exposed to much lower levels of air pollution than 30 years ago—because of great strides made to reduce people’s exposure—it appears that further reductions in air pollution levels would continue to benefit public health,” said lead author Andrew Correia, a PhD candidate in the Department of Biostatistics at HSPH.

The study looked at the effects on health of fine particulate matter, small particles of 2.5 micrometers or less in diameter—referred to as PM2.5. Numerous studies have shown associations between acute and chronic exposure to fine particle air pollution and cardiopulmonary disease and mortality. Studies have also shown that reductions in air pollution are associated with reductions in adverse health effects and improved life expectancy. Air pollution has been declining steadily in the U.S. since 1980, but the rate has slowed in the years since 2000. The HSPH researchers wanted to know whether the relatively smaller decreases in PM2.5 levels since 2000 are still improving life expectancy.

Controlling for socioeconomic status, smoking prevalence, and demographic characteristics, the results showed that a decrease of 10 micrograms per cubic meter (10 μg/m3 ) in the concentration of  PM2.5 during the period 2000 to 2007 was associated with an average increase in life expectancy of 0.35 years in 545 U.S. counties.

The research expanded on a 2009 study published in the New England Journal of Medicine by some of the same authors (Pope, Ezzati, and Dockery) that found that reduced air pollution was associated with increased life expectancy in 211 urban counties. This new study looked at more recent data, more than two-and-a-half times as many counties, and included both rural and urban areas. The findings showed that there’s a stronger association between declining air pollution and increased life expectancy in more urban, densely populated areas than in rural areas. The results also suggested that reduced levels of air pollution may be more beneficial to women than to men….

A double air inversion over Los Angeles, from the EPA

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Warm seas melting Antarctic ice sheet faster than expected

April Flowers in Red Orbit: The West Antarctica ice sheet is melting faster than expected. An international group of oceanographers led by the University of Gothenburg has published new observations in the journal Nature Geoscience that may improve our ability to predict future changes in ice sheet mass.

The water levels of the oceans would be affected globally by a reduction of the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, making it problematic that current information concerning the ocean circulation near large glaciers in West Antarctica is insufficient. Researchers are unable to predict how water levels will change in the future with any large degree of certainty.

“There is a clear reduction in the ice mass in West Antarctica, especially around the glaciers leading into the Amundsen Sea,” says researcher Lars Arneborg from the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Gothenburg.

Arneborg and his team have been studying ocean circulation in the Amundsen Sea. According to the team, West Antarctica is particularly sensitive because the majority of the ice rests on areas that are below sea level where warm water penetrates beneath the ice. This causes increased melting from underneath.

“It is therefore probably a change in the ocean circulation in the Amundsen Sea that has caused this increased melting,” continues Arneborg. Previously, scientists have been referred to studies that use high-resolution computer models.

“But there have been very few oceanographic measurements from the Amundsen Sea to confirm or contradict the results from the computer models. Nor has there been any winter data. Sea ice and icebergs have made it impossible to get there in the winter, and it isn’t easy to have instruments in place all year round,” he explains….

Pine Island Bay on the West Antarctic Coast, shot by NASA

Environmental hangover from Indonesia's palm oil thirst

Seed Daily via AFP: The roar of chainsaws has replaced birdsong, the once-lush, green jungle scorched to a barren grey. The equivalent of six football pitches of forest is lost every minute in Indonesia. The disappearance of the trees has pushed thousands of animals -- from the birds they harbour and sustain to orangutans, gibbons and black panthers -- out of their natural homes and habitats.

They have been replaced by plantations that are too nutrient-poor to support such wildlife, instead dedicated solely to producing fruit that is pulped to make oil used globally in products ranging from food to fuel.

A palm oil tree can yield useable fruit in three years and continue doing so for the next 25 years. But such wealth creation has meant environmental destruction.  "We don't see too many orangutans any more", said a worker with a weather-beaten face, taking a break in the shade of a hut built on a path gouged out of the forest floor.

Experts believe there are about 50,000 to 60,000 orangutans left in the wild, 80 percent of them in Indonesia's Borneo and the rest in Malaysia. Exact data on their decline is hard to come by, say primatologists.

"What we see now is a contest between orangutans and palm oil for a home," said Sri Suci Utami Atmoko from National University in Jakarta. "You can judge that the population is depleting from the loss of orangutan habitats."….

Deforestation and forest burning for oil palm plantation in the buffer zone of Bukit Tigapuluh National Park in Riau Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. Shot by Aidenvironment, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license

Multilateral development banks join forces to track climate financing

AllAfrica.com via the African Development Bank: The African Development Bank led a team of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) to develop a new joint approach to track climate financing including Adaptation and Mitigation Financing. The reports were launched during a side event panel at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP18) in Doha on December 5.

The new common methodology to track climate financing and value its impact was launched during a panel discussion on the topic, featuring representatives from each of the MDBs involved - the AfDB, Asian Development Bank (ADB), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), European Investment Bank (EIB), Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the World Bank.

Simon Mizrahi, Director of the AfDB's Quality Assurance and Results Department (ORQR), expressed the urgent need to take on climate financing and its tracking and make it a moral obligation. "Climate change is already taxing the lives and future of millions of people in Africa specifically, as they will be the hardest hit. Drought, storms, floods are destroying the livelihood of millions in the most vulnerable countries on earth," Mizrahi continued. "Addressing climate change needs a worldwide team effort as the numbers are staggering and a collective partnership is the only way forward."

AfDB Chief Climate Change Specialist Mafalda Duarte introduced the joint MDB reports on Adaptation and Mitigation Finance and how these will support better project design and allow better accountability to stakeholders, whether they be member countries, institutions or private donors. "Commitments have been made in terms of climate finance because of the recognition that climate finance is needed to address the climate change impacts we are facing and we will face," Duarte said. "These joint reports provide a system to monitor these commitment trends and progresses, in climate-related investments. -We believe also that this tracking and monitoring will mobilize resources from capital markets into green investments and will also define what these investments are going to be."…

Bangladesh, Maldives front runners in adapting to climate change impacts

The Daily Star: As the most vulnerable nations to climate change impacts, Bangladesh and the Maldives are becoming front runners in adapting to climate change impacts.

The ministers of Environment of Bangladesh and the Maldives at a high-level event organised during the annual United Nations Climate Summit convened at Doha discussed how their nations are prioritising climate change issues as a key developmental challenge and embracing actions aimed at increasing climate resilience of people and infrastructure through strategic national investments and innovative national climate financing.

According to recent estimates, 14.6 million people in the coastal areas of Bangladesh are vulnerable to inundation due to increased cyclonic surges, and this number will increase to 18.5 million by 2050 under moderate climate change scenarios, said a World Bank press release.

Over the last decades, the Bangladesh government has invested more than US$10bn to make the country less vulnerable to natural disasters. Measures as strengthening river embankments, building emergency cyclone shelters, and developing world class community based early warning system have significantly reduced the loss of life and livelihoods and property damages caused by extreme weather events…

A shipbreaking yard in Chittagong, shot by Stéphane M. Grueso, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license

Killer typhoon turns back towards Philippines

Space Daily via AFP: A typhoon that has killed hundreds of people and left tens of thousands homeless in the southern Philippines has turned back towards the country and will hit it again, forecasters said Saturday.

Typhoon Bopha will slam into the northern tip of the main island of Luzon early Sunday, packing gusts of up to 160 kilometres (around 100 miles) an hour, the state weather service said.

It was likely to bring heavy rainfall to the area, civil defence office director Benito Ramos told a news conference. "People there need to take precautions," he added.

The eye of the cyclone was 230 kilometres west of the northern town of Sinait at 4:00pm (0800 GMT) and moving slowly northeast, the service said.

Heavy to intense rainfall was expected within the typhoon's 400-kilometre footprint, it added…

Friday, December 7, 2012

Plant stress paints early picture of drought

Kathryn Hansen in Seed Daily via NASA: In July 2012, farmers in the U.S. Midwest and Plains regions watched crops wilt and die after a stretch of unusually low precipitation and high temperatures. Before a lack of rain and record-breaking heat signaled a problem, however, scientists observed another indication of drought in data from NASA and NOAA satellites: plant stress.

Healthy vegetation requires a certain amount of water from the soil every day to stay alive, and when soil moisture falls below adequate levels, plants become stressed. Scientists with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) have developed a way to use satellite data to map that plant stress. The maps could soon aid in drought forecasts, and prove useful for applications such as crop yield estimates or decisions about crop loss compensation.

"Crop drought monitoring is of high practical value, and any advance notice of drought conditions helps the farmer make practical decisions sooner," says Steve Running, an ecologist at University of Montana in Missoula.

A new animation of plant stress (top) shows how drought evolved across the United States from January 2010 through September 2012. In spring 2010, satellites measured cool leaf temperatures, indicating healthy plants and wetter-than-average conditions (green), over many areas across the country.

By summer 2011, satellites saw the warming of stressed vegetation, indicating significantly lower-than-usual water availability (red) in many areas, most notably in Texas. Crops were either dead or would soon be dead….

Plant stress on on August 28, 2012, indicated significant drought in the U.S. Midwest. Credit: NASA/Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio/USDA-ARS

Climate change affecting livelihood options in Assam

Business Line from the Hindu (India): Climate change leading to natural disasters, particularly flood and erosion, has affected the livelihood options of thousands of people across Assam, a study has found out.

The impact of the climate change is most pronounced among marginalised women, but it has also pushed people from prosperous families into taking up work of domestic assistance and daily wage labour, the study revealed.

In many cases, young women of less developed and remote areas have even been pushed into flesh trade after natural disasters wiped out their options of making an honest livelihood.

The study was conducted by the Centre for Environment, Social and Policy Research (CESPR) in collaboration with the Indian Network on Ethics and Climate Change.

It has been observed that during the last few years there has been a significant change in the livelihood options of people due to climate distortions, CESPR spokesperson Sabita Devi says.

The study was undertaken in the six severely disaster-affected districts of Lakhimpur, Majuli in Jorhat, Morigaon, Sonitpur, Baksa and Dibrugarh….

An aerial view of the Brahmaputra River in Assam, shot by Akarsh Simha, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license

Canada invests in climate change solutions in developing countries

Canada Newswire: Today, the Honourable Peter Kent, Canada's Environment Minister, announced a number of key initiatives to support climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts in developing countries.

"Canada continues to deliver on its commitment to support developing countries in their efforts to address climate change," said Minister Kent. "Canadian fast-start financing is providing concrete help for some of the most vulnerable countries and is reducing greenhouse gas emissions through investments in climate-friendly growth."

Some of the funding from the third wave of the Canadian contribution will support: 

  • $75 million to support the Catalyst Fund, managed by the International Finance Corporation. The Fund will invest in venture capital and private equity in developing countries, with a focus on sectors such as renewable energy, energy efficiency, water, agriculture, and forestry.
  • $76 million to the Asian Development Bank to establish a Canadian Climate Fund for the private sector in Asia. The Fund will encourage private investment in climate change projects in 33 low and lower-middle income countries and small island states within Asia. These funds will be invested in projects related to renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable transportation and infrastructure, and climate resilience.
  • $16.5 million to the United Nations Development Programme for adaptation projects in least developed countries.
The investment is part of Canada's fast-start financing commitment under the Copenhagen Accord to provide $1.2 billion in new and additional financing to support climate change action in developing countries….

Philippines early warning system saves lives as thousands flee Typhoon Bopha

UNISDR News Archive: The UN Office for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) today praised the improved performance of early warning systems in the Philippines as Typhoon Bopha cut a swathe of destruction across the country resulting in over 200 deaths and significant economic losses.

UNISDR Head of Regional Office for Asia, Jerry Velasquez, said: "This time last year over 1,400 people died on Mindanao in a similar event but this time big improvements in the early warning systems have saved many lives. More than 167,000 people have been evacuated to shelters."

He singled out the new automated rainfall and flood prediction systems as being critical to the provision of accurate forecasts and timely warnings as part of Project NOAH (Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards), introduced earlier this year by the Department of Science and Technology at the request of President Benigno S. Aquino.

"The Government's NOAH Project has enabled central government agencies, local governments and citizens to prepare and act before intense weather arrives. The project includes dissemination through television and the Internet of real-time satellite, Doppler radar, and other weather information enabling people to see not only wind speed and location of incoming weather disturbance but also the possible amount of precipitation.

…"Once Project NOAH is completely deployed across the country by the end of 2013, and local governments start acting based on its information, we should start to see a significant drop in the numbers of lives lost to disasters in the Philippines. However, the country also needs to respond to the enormous economic losses which these entail. About 0.8% of GDP is lost each year to disasters and this takes an unacceptably high toll on the country's development and efforts at poverty reduction."...

Typhoon Bopha on December 1, a category 4 storm (shot by NASA)

UNEP launches new initiative to support climate change adaptation in Africa

UNEP News Centre: From managing coastal erosion, to tackling pressures on food supply, a new initiative launched today by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) will aim to support communities across Africa in adapting to the impacts of climate change.

The Africa Adaptation Knowledge Network will serve as a hub for knowledge, research, successful initiatives, and collaborative partnerships on climate change adaptation.

It builds on ongoing efforts around the continent to mobilize existing knowledge and provide robust solutions to the major impact of climate change on lives and livelihoods in Africa.

Disasters such as severe droughts in the Sahel in 2012 and the Horn of Africa in 2011 have brought into sharp focus the serious impacts on water, land, soil, and other resources linked to climate change on the continent, and the need to build resilience to such pressures.

Warming in Africa is projected to continue to increase by 3-4oC over the next century. This poses a serious challenge to sustainable development, particularly as the economies of most African countries depend on climate-sensitive sectors such as water, agriculture, fisheries, energy and tourism.

Yet the region lacks the capacity and resources needed to face the challenges of climate change - a problem that could have major economic consequences...

Goats in the beach in Banjul, Gambia, shot by Niels Elgaard Larsen, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Thursday, December 6, 2012

In spite of wet start, Northeast sees second driest November in more than a century

Cornell University press release: Even though Hurricane Sandy helped create wet start to the month for several states, November 2012 went into the record books as the second-driest November since 1895 in the Northeast. With an average of 1.04 inches or precipitation, the region received only 27 percent of its normal level. The record driest November was 1917 when the Northeast received only 0.88 inches of precipitation.

All states were drier than average. Departures ranged from 16 percent of normal in Connecticut, their second-driest November, to 37 percent of normal in New Jersey, their 11th driest. Of the remaining states, New Hampshire, Vermont and West Virginia had their second-driest November; Delaware, Maine, Maryland and New York had their third driest. Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Massachusetts also ranked in the top 10 driest Novembers.

Overall for autumn, the Northeast was slightly drier than average with 11.36 inches of precipitation (98 percent of normal). The region was split down the middle with half of the states drier and half the states wetter than normal. Connecticut took the title of driest state with only 78 percent of normal, while Delaware led the wet states with 120 percent of normal.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, issued Nov. 27, indicated abnormal dryness continued in upstate New York while a new area of abnormal dryness popped up near the Vermont-New Hampshire border and in central-southern West Virginia.

In addition to being dry, the Northeast was cooler than normal for November – in spite of a brief mind-month warmup. With an average temperature of 37.2 degrees, it was 2.5 degrees cooler than normal and was the coolest November since 1997. All states reported below average temperatures for the first time since October 2009. West Virginia and Maine were the coolest at 4.1 degrees below average. Departures for the rest of the states ranged from 4 degrees below normal in New Jersey to 0.9 degrees below normal in Vermont....

Shot by Brian Thomas, public domain

Arctic continues to break records in 2012: Becoming warmer, greener region with record losses of summer sea ice and late spring snow

NOAA: The Arctic region continued to break records in 2012—among them the loss of summer sea ice, spring snow cover, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. This was true even though air temperatures in the Arctic were unremarkable relative to the last decade, according to a new report released today.

“The Arctic is changing in both predictable and unpredictable ways, so we must expect surprises,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, during a press briefing at the American Geophysical Union annual meeting in San Francisco, Calif. “The Arctic is an extremely sensitive part of the world and with the warming scientists have observed, we see the results with less snow and sea ice, greater ice sheet melt and changing vegetation.”

Lubchenco participated in a panel discussion that presented the annual update of the Arctic Report Card, which has, since 2006, summarized the quickly changing conditions in the Arctic. A record-breaking 141 authors from 15 countries contributed to the peer-reviewed report. Major findings of this year’s report include:
  • Snow cover: A new record low snow extent for the Northern Hemisphere was set in June 2012, and a new record low was reached in May over Eurasia.
  • Sea ice: Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 set a new all-time record low, as measured by satellite since 1979.
  • Greenland ice sheet: There was a rare, nearly ice sheet-wide melt event on the Greenland ice sheet in July, covering about 97 percent of the ice sheet on a single day....

Difference from average temperature in the Arctic from 2001-2011 compared to the long-term average (1971-2000). From NOAA

Climate funds must help integrate climate into policy

Simon Anderson in SciDev.net: At last year's conference of parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), countries decided that "comprehensive, iterative assessments of development needs and climate vulnerabilities" should form the basis for national climate adaptation programmes.

Processes are already underway to achieve this aim. At a workshop in Tanzania last month, policymakers from Bangladesh, Eritrea, Ethiopia, the Gambia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda discussed progress on integrating climate change strategies into their country's development plans.

For example, Kenya's Climate Change Action Plan — validated on 22 November and being presented at the current 18th session of the conference of parties (COP 18) in Doha, Qatar (26 November–7 December) — spans adaptation, finance, institutional arrangements, mitigation, technology, capacity development and knowledge management.

Ethiopia's Climate-Resilient Green Economy strategy supports an array of investments, including electric power generation from renewable sources, scaling up the use of more efficient stoves, and increasing the efficiency of the livestock sector.

Similarly, Ghana and Mozambique have national climate change strategies and the Gambia is integrating climate change responses into its Program for Accelerated Growth and Employment.

The integration of cross-cutting issues into policy and planning has been called 'mainstreaming'. This matters because climate change is a special kind of policy problem — a moving and growing target.

Canopy structure more important to climate than leaf nitrogen levels

Terra Daily via SPX: Claims that forest leaves rich in nitrogen may aid in reflecting infrared radiation - helping cool the atmosphere - have been challenged by new research that shows that the structure of tree canopies is a more important factor in infrared reflection. Recent studies have noticed a strong positive correlation between the concentration of nitrogen in forests and infrared reflectance measured from aircraft and satellites.

Some scientists have suggested this demonstrates a previously overlooked role for nitrogen in regulating the earth's climate system.

However, a new paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows that the apparent relationship between leaves' nitrogen levels and infrared reflection is spurious and it is in fact the structure of forest canopies (the spatial arrangement of the leaves) that determines their ability to reflect infrared light.

The authors, including Professor Philip Lewis and Dr Mathias Disney (UCL Geography), show that the richer in nitrogen individual leaves are the worse at reflecting infrared radiation they become.

However, the complex arrangements of trees with radically different arrangements of leaves within a forest can act to mask this effect, making it appear as if higher levels of leaf nitrogen are leading to increased infrared reflection....

A tree canopy in Sri Lanka's Sinharaja Forest Reserve, shot by Chamal N, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Agriculture takes a backseat again

IRIN: Discussions about much-needed support for agriculture - which is seen both as a victim and a cause of climate change - at the UN’s climate change conference in Doha have been postponed until next year.

Agriculture is a contentious and emotionally fraught issue. It results in the emission of major greenhouses gases, such as nitrous oxide and methane; the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates agriculture accounts for 13.5 percent of all man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

But climate change also threatens agriculture, which most developing countries’ populations rely on for income. The impact of climate change also threatens global food security; projections show that yields from food crops could decline by five percent for each degree Celsius increase in global warming. Many poor farmers are already experiencing the impact of increasingly variable rainfall.

Because of sharp divisions over the kind of support agriculture needs, little progress has been made in addressing these issues in the new climate deal being negotiated under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Some at the UN talks - known as the 18th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP18) - see agricultural issues playing a more dominant role in reducing global warming. These participants emphasize the need to reduce agriculture-related emissions.  At the same time, developing countries are arguing they need more money and better technology to help farmers adapt to the impact of climate change, including frequent droughts, flooding and increased soil salinity....

Abraham Janssens, "Scaldis and Antwerpia," 1609

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Russia, Ukraine hit with massive snowfall

Terra Daily via AFP: Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday battled through heavy snowfall which created record traffic jams in Moscow and cut power in some 300 Ukrainian towns. Colossal amounts of snow fell overnight, making the morning commute into the Russian capital a nightmare, with stop-and-go traffic on most major streets to the center.

"Today Moscow was one step away from complete transportation paralysis," a presenter said on Channel One's afternoon news. A government plane with several ministers was delayed by the weather flying out of Moscow due to particularly heavy snowfall in Vnukovo airport, Russian agencies reported.

The airport said on its website that it was forced to close down its landing strip for fifteen minutes every hour in order to clean it and treat it with anti-freezing agents.

The emergency ministry in Tver region northwest of Moscow -- where thousands of trucks were stuck in a 190 kilometre-long jam over the weekend -- warned that snowfall is once again slowing down transport.

"There is increased risk of traffic jams and accidents due to snowfall," the ministry said on its website, warning of a decreased speed limit on the highway M10 that links Moscow and St. Petersburg....

First snow on a Ukrainian railway bridge in 2010, shot by Maksim Nakonechny, public domain

Climate change will mean more malnourished children

John Vidal in the "globaldevelopment" blog at the Guardian (UK): Food prices will more than double and the number of malnourished children spiral if climate change is not checked and developing countries are not helped to adapt their farming, food and water experts warned on Tuesday at the UN climate talks in Doha.

As the UK energy secretary, Ed Davey, and ministers from 194 countries arrived for the high-level segment of the talks, the UN's Committee on World Food Security said the world would need a 75-90% increase in food production to feed the extra 2 billion people expected to be alive in 2050. But climate change could reduce yields worldwide by 5-25% over the same period.

"The poor are especially vulnerable. Climate change will increase the number of malnourished children substantially. Smallholder farmers will be particularly hard hit," said Gerald Nelson, a spokesman for the high-level panel of experts convened by the committee to report on food prospects in the coming 30 years.

Research from Oxfam suggests rice, maize and wheat prices could rise by up to 177% in the next 20 years if climate change is not checked. A combination of extreme events like the drought that affected North America this year and the Russian heatwave in 2008 could raise prices further than two decades of long-term prices, it said...

Teniers, David the younger, 1610-1690

Typhoon kills at least 283 in Philippines

Eric de Castro in Reuters: Blocked roads and severed communications in the southern Philippines frustrated rescuers on Wednesday as teams searched for hundreds of people missing after the strongest typhoon this year killed at least 283 people.

Typhoon Bopha, with central winds of 120 kph (75 mph) and gusts of up to 150 kph (93 mph), battered beach resorts and dive spots on Palawan island on Wednesday but it was weakening as it moved west. Hardest hit was the southern island of Mindanao, where Bopha made landfall on Tuesday. It triggered landslides and floods along the coast and in farming and mining towns inland.

Interior Minister Manuel Roxas said 300 people were missing. "Entire families were washed away," Roxas, who inspected the disaster zone, told reporters.

...According to tallies provided by the military and disaster agency officials, 283 people were killed....

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color, high definition image of powerful, strengthening, Typhoon Bopha, as a category 4 super typhoon, with winds of 240km/h and a pressure of 935hpa at the time the image was taken on December 2, 2012

World Bank Group : Urgent action needed on climate change in Arab world

4-traders: The impact of climate change will be especially acute in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, according to a new World Bank Group report, and immediate action will be needed to avoid the projected consequences of worsening water shortages and rising food insecurity. Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries provides a comprehensive assessment of the threat to the region posed by increasingly severe weather, and offers a set of policy options for the urgent task of managing current effects and building resilience against those yet to come.

"Reducing vulnerability to climate change will require concerted action on multiple levels," said Rachel Kyte, World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development. "Political leadership now, will be critical in establishing climate change as a national and regional priority."

The Arab world has been adapting to climate change for centuries. There is a long history and tradition of coping with the associated challenges, such as changes in temperature and rainfall. New climate change risks are emerging at a much faster rate, including the prospect of a world that is four degrees hotter, and resilience built up over years is being severely tested.

These risks have been identified and assessed in the new climate report which was prepared in partnership with the League of Arab States, involving specialists, researchers, policymakers and civil society organizations from across the region. The report reinforces the warning that decades of poverty reduction efforts could be reversed as contained in the recent World Bank publication, Turn Down The Heat: Why a 4° C Warmer World Must be Avoided....

Climate change serious for India

Newstrack India via IANS: Terming the current global climate change scenario as "serious times", a US environmental law expert Wednesday cautioned that the rise in sea level in the Indian Ocean could make cities like Kolkata and Mumbai vulnerable.

"There might be particular problems due to the sea level rise in the Indian Ocean. Cities like Kolkata and Mumbai are the vulnerable cities," said Rob Verchick, who holds the Gauthier-St. Martin Chair in Environmental Law at Loyola University, New Orleans, US. He is also the faculty director of the Center for Environmental Law and Land Use at the university.

Verchick added: "Surat and Ahmedabad are responding well to adapt to the climate change. Surat has a climate change board and they are monitoring the situation quite well." He was addressing students at the School of Oceanography and Environmental Studies, Jadavpur University...

Verchick, who recently served US president Barack Obama's administration as deputy associate administrator for policy at the Environmental Protection Agency, said: "For adapting to climate change we have to adopt smarter ways. The first thing we must do is that government and other agencies should look in to assess vulnerability of a place to climate change like temperature, sea level rise etc."

"Then we have to ask, how will those changes affect the area and then in a democratic process decide what we can do with the area," he said...

Hope Bridge in Surat, shot by Shishir Desai, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Climate models project increase in US wildfire risk

NASA: Scientists using NASA satellite data and climate models have projected drier conditions likely will cause increased fire activity across the United States in coming decades. Other findings about U.S. wildfires, including their amount of carbon emissions and how the length and strength of fire seasons are expected to change under future climate conditions, were also presented Tuesday at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

Doug Morton of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., presented the new analysis of future U.S. fire activity. The analysis was based on current fire trends and predicted greenhouse gas emissions.  "Climate models project an increase in fire risk across the U.S. by 2050, based on a trend toward drier conditions that favor fire activity and an increase in the frequency of extreme events," Morton said.

The analysis by Morton and colleagues used climate projections, prepared for the Fifth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to examine how dryness, and therefore fire activity, is expected to change.

The researchers calculated results for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. In both cases, results suggest more fire seasons that are longer and stronger across all regions of the U.S. in the next 30-50 years. Specifically, high fire years like 2012 would likely occur two to four times per decade by mid-century, instead of once per decade under current climate conditions.

Through August of this year, the U.S. burned area topped 2.5 million hectares (6.17 million acres), according to a fire emissions database that incorporates burned area estimates produced from observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instruments on NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. That is short of the record 3.2 million hectares (7.90 million acres) burned in 2011, but exceeds the area burned during 12 of the 15 years since record keeping began in 1997. This and other satellite records, along with more refined climate and emissions models, are allowing scientists to tease out new information about fire trends....

'Black swan' storms: extreme cyclones linked to warming seas

Becky Oskin in Our Amazing Planet: A "black swan" cyclone may sound like the latest comic book hero, but this "extreme of the extremes" is the result of climate models that suggest global warming will make future hurricanes more intense.

The rare monster tropical cyclones (the term for hurricanes, typhoons and other tropical storms) could inundate coastal areas with storm surges greater than 15 feet (4.6 meters), and could even surpass 30 feet (9 m) in some regions of the world. The research was described here yesterday (Dec. 3) at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

By simulating thousands of possible future storms, researchers identified the outliers that could hit coastal areas in the future but that wouldn't show up in predictions based solely on historical records, said Ning Lin, a professor at Princeton University. The scientists relied on the same model the National Weather Service uses to predict hurricane activity for a given season.

...Even though Hurricane Sandy broke several records and generated tremendous storm surge, the superstorm was not a black swan, Lin said. The simulated storm surges calculated by the model for New York, at up to 16 feet, top the record set by Hurricane Sandy, at 14 feet (4.3 m) — part of which was the high tide at the time....

The Brooklyn waterfront during Hurricane Sandy, shot by lookcatalog, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr,  under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

To drought-proof city’s water supply, Sydney proposes a second set of pipes

Brett Walton in Circle of Blue:  The City of Sydney, one of 38 political subdivisions in Australia’s largest metropolitan region of the same name, is in the final stage of preparing an ambitious master plan that seeks to refashion its water infrastructure to meet the constraints of a water-scarce future.

One of the oldest sections of Australia’s 224-year-old hub, the City – which includes the central business district and is home to 185,000 of the 4.6 million people in greater Sydney – envisions a second water-distribution network that would provide water for purposes other than drinking. This parallel system would tap into new sources like salty water, purified by waste heat from power plants, as well as existing sources, such as recycled wastewater and rainwater, which are typically flushed out to sea.

“For a major urban centre to have two networks — one delivering potable water and another delivering non-potable water — it would be ground breaking in Australia,” Monique Retamal wrote in an email to Circle of Blue. Retamal, a researcher at the Sydney-based Institute for Sustainable Futures, helped to develop the City’s water plan. “As far as I am aware, there are no other similar plans elsewhere in the world.”

The city council not only wants to adapt its obsolete infrastructure to a changing climate, said Bhakti Devi, the city’s manager for water strategy. Because cities worldwide will soon be confronting the same problems, the City also wants to be a pioneer for urban water solutions globally....

Sydney and Sydney Harbour Bridge taken from North Shore, 19 March 1932. Shot by E.W. Searle

Rich nations alone can't halt global warming

Space Daily via AFP: Poor nations must make haste to curb greenhouse gas emissions as even an impossible zero-percent pollution target for the developed world by 2030 won't stop calamitous climate change, a report warned Tuesday.

Co-authored by former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern, the document said that while rich countries are responsible for the bulk of Earth-warming gas emissions since the industrial age, the world could not afford to play the blame-game.

All countries, rich and poor, were moving "recklessly slow" on reducing emissions, said the report issued on the sidelines of UN climate talks in Doha, Qatar.

"There is a deep inequity in that rich countries grew wealthy on high-carbon growth, and poor countries will be hit particularly hard by climate change," it said.

"Recognition of that inequity must play a strong part in building international collaboration, but must not be allowed to block progress: that would be the most inequitable of all outcomes"....

Nicholas Stern in 2000

Typhoon hits south Philippines, 40 dead or missing

Reuters: The strongest typhoon to hit the Philippines this year pounded the southern island of Mindanao on Tuesday and about 40 people were dead or missing, media said, after the storm destroyed homes and brought down power and communication lines.

Typhoon Bopha, with wind gusts of up to 195 kph (121 mph), made landfall at dawn, uprooting trees and tearing off roofs.

About 40 people were killed or missing in flash floods and landslides near a mining area on Mindanao, ABS-CBN television reported, saying waters and soil had swept through an army post.

A television reporter said she saw numerous bodies lined up near the army base. A military spokesman earlier said about 20 people, including six soldiers, were missing....

On December 1, NASA took this image of Typhoon Bopha, when it was a Category 4 storm.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Physicist happens upon rain data breakthrough

NASA: A physicist and researcher who set out to develop a formula to protect Apollo sites on the moon from rocket exhaust may have happened upon a way to improve weather forecasting on Earth.

Working in his backyard during rain showers and storms, John Lane, a physicist at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, found that the laser and reflector he was developing to track lunar dust also could determine accurately the size of raindrops, something weather radar and other meteorological systems estimate, but don't measure.

The special quantity measured by the laser system is called the "second moment of the size distribution," which results in the average cross-section area of raindrops passing through the laser beam.

"It's not often that you're studying lunar dust and it ends up producing benefits in weather forecasting," said Phil Metzger, a physicist who leads the Granular Mechanics and Regolith Operations Lab, part of the Surface Systems Office at Kennedy.

Lane said the additional piece of information would be useful in filling out the complex computer calculations used to determine the current conditions and forecast the weather. "We may be able to refine (computer weather) models to make them more accurate," Lane said. "Weather radar data analysis makes assumptions about raindrop size, so I think this could improve the overall drop size distribution estimates."...

John Lane looks over data recorded from his laser system as he refines his process and formula to calibrate measurements of raindrops. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

Messing with natural habitats only makes flooding worse

Tony Juniper in the Independent (UK): Recent flooding has caused widespread misery, disruption and large-scale economic damage. One sector that has been hard hit is insurance. Because flooding is becoming more frequent due to climate change, some areas are becoming uninsurable. Some 200,000 properties could soon see withdrawal of flood insurance and talks between government and the Association of British Insurers are yet to reach agreement on how insurance cover might be continued for those properties at highest risk.

Alongside debates on how to maintain insurance cover, another natural focus in the wake of deluges of the kind recently experienced is about the quality and extent of traditional flood defences. All this is fine, but for me there is a piece missing. It relates to both these questions and is about the vital role that could be played by so-called ‘green infrastructure’.

While the risk of flooding can be reduced at least in the short-term through the building of hard defences (such as higher levies and bigger storm drains), approaches that go more with the flow of nature can be both cheaper and more effective. For example, peat bogs on hills store rainwater and release it slowly into streams and rivers. When the bogs are damaged, heavy rain runs off more quickly and can cause problems below.

...With these and many other experiences in mind, various bodies including conservation groups, water companies and local authorities are beginning to invest in trees and peatland restoration as cost-effective measures to reduce flood risk (and improve water quality). Peat and trees also contain a lot of carbon, so this way of cutting flood risk is also a way to help reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the air....

Damage from the 2007 flood in Sheffield, UK, shot by Dave Pickersgill, Wikimedia Commons via Geograph UK, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license

Amid Egypt crisis, Ethiopia pushes Nile dam

Space Daily: Ethiopia is driving to complete its massive $4.8 billion Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile amid a long-running dispute with Egypt that will likely worsen in the months ahead unless addressed.

Egypt faces destabilization as it stands to lose much of the Nile water that is its lifeblood. Ethiopia's development plans depend on an ambitious multi-dam program announced in 2011. Cairo describes this as a threat to Egypt's national security, heightening tension in the escalating battle for control over the world's longest river.

But the wave of domestic turmoil that has gripped the Arab world's most populous nation since the February 2011 overthrow of longtime dictator Hosni Mubarak, has pushed the Nile problem onto Cairo's back burner.

It's likely to be thrust even more to one side amid the tumult unleashed Nov. 23 when Mubarak's Islamist successor, President Mohamed Morsi, decreed himself near-absolute powers and immunity from legal oversight. His surprise move triggered nationwide protests and accusations he was becoming a dictator like Mubarak.

Morsi flew to Addis Ababa in July, soon after he became president, seeking to negotiate a settlement to the Nile dispute. His two-day visit was a milestone in the stormy relations between the countries but Ethiopia's strongman, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, reportedly refused to compromise on his plan to spend $12 billion on hydroelectric projects on the upper reaches of the Nile intended to produce 40,000 megawatts by 2035....

The Nile from space

Dealing with loss and damage

IRIN: In a formal letter to Qatar - host of the 18th conference of the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - a coalition of 40 NGOs, backed by academics, has called for urgent action on loss and damage caused by climate change. The NGOs have drawn up a framework to help country negotiators address the contentious issue.

The proposed framework opens the door for developing countries to possibly receive compensation for losses and damages that are incurred when efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change have failed. 

Policy frameworks provided by NGOs have proven handy in past climate change talks. In 2010, a framework put together by a similar coalition of NGOs paved the way for the adoption of the Cancun Adaptation Framework; this was a significant breakthrough for developing countries and NGOs trying to draw attention to the need to adapt to climate change.

Two key objectives of the framework are: the prevention of loss and damage through mitigation and adaptation efforts, and compensation and rehabilitation following the occurrence of loss and damage. These objectives receive equal footing in the document.

“We don’t want the UNFCCC process to give up on mitigation and adaptation, hence our equal emphasis. We have to keep the cost of loss and damage down,” explained Harjeet Singh of ActionAid, one of the contributors to a briefing paper on the framework....

Pacific islanders face major losses from climate change

Megan Rowling in AlertNet: The livelihoods of some 10 million people in Pacific island communities are increasingly vulnerable to climate change, which poses "unprecedented challenges" to the region's economies and environment, a U.N.-backed report said on Friday.

Incomes - in many cases already low - are at risk from sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, floods and drought, as well as pressures linked to over-fishing and coastal development, said the report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Pacific Regional Environment Programme.

Low-lying islands in the Pacific Ocean could face projected losses of up to 18 percent of gross domestic product due to climate change, UNEP added. “This report presents concrete evidence that food, freshwater and the livelihoods of Pacific islanders are under threat," UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner said in a statement.

Other challenges include population increases, a reliance on imported food and commodities, a growing waste problem and invasive species - pressures that are being exacerbated by climate change and more frequent extreme weather events, said the report....

Enderbury Island, in Kiribati, shot by NASA