Who owns the NIle?

Geeska Africa Online: After years of conflict about control over the Nile, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan have now apparently chosen the path of co-operation over open dispute. Politicians are demonstrating unity, but observers warn that not all differences have been resolved. Many residents of the Ethiopian capital are well equipped with candles, generators and an ample supply of patience in order to cope with the regular power outages in Addis Ababa. During a recent state visit, Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi experienced first hand a power blackout that lasted a number of hours. It was almost as if the Ethiopian capital wanted to demonstrate to him the urgent need for electricity from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).The gargantuan project, located on the upper course of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, has been a source of tension between the neighbouring states for years. The reason for this is that Egypt is also heavily dependent on the river. In 2013, Sisi’s predecessor, Mohamed Morsi, even indirectly threatened Ethiopia with war out of fear his country could suffer a water shortage.

For the past few years, the government in Addis Ababa has been ambitiously pursuing the construction of the largest hydroelectric project ever to be built in Africa, located in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia near the border with Sudan.

With a population of around 90 million, Ethiopia is the second most populous country on the continent after Nigeria. This aspiring economic power aims to satisfy its energy requirements through the construction of a series of dams along the Blue Nile. The centrepiece of this policy is the over 3-billion-euro GERD project, which upon completion should produce 6,000 megawatts of electricity – as much as five nuclear power plants. Ethiopia thereby aims to achieve greater independence from crude oil imports and simultaneously provide a stimulus for its emerging industrial sector. In addition, the government in Addis Ababa plans to alleviate its chronic shortage of foreign currency by selling up to 2,000 megawatts of energy to its African neighbours, including Egypt. Although the first supply agreements have already been signed, many conflicts remain unresolved.

Some 160 million people live in the Nile Basin. The desert nation of Egypt fears that upon completion, GERD will quite literally leave Egyptian farmers high and dry with nothing to irrigate their fields, claiming that once the 1,680-square-kilometre reservoir has been flooded, water will evaporate in the heat. Egypt already experienced something similar with the opening of the Aswan Dam in 1971. Egypt and Sudan have even invoked colonial treaties dating back to 1929 and 1959, which guarantee both countries an almost 90 per cent share of the water flow from the Blue Nile and the White Nile as well as ensuring the right of veto over any construction plans....

The falls of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, shot by A. Davey, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Ethiopian dam deal ignores science, warn experts

Rehab Abd Almohsen in SciDev.net: Water scientists from Egypt have raised concerns over a declaration governing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that is meant to ensure fair access to Nile water for countries downstream.

The Declaration of principles, which the leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan signed in Khartoum, Sudan, on 23 March, is meant to regulate Nile water use following political upheaval over the dam, which is about a third into its construction.

Talking to SciDev.Net, scientists monitoring the declaration’s creation have warned that concerns over the dam’s impact on the environment and local people have been sidelined for gains in political negotiations.

Nader Noureddine, a water resources and soil researcher at Cairo University, says the technical committee appointed by all three countries to oversee the dam’s construction will be allowed to study documents provided by the Ethiopian government, but “will not be allowed to visit the dam or to witness the work on the site”. This, Noureddine says, will seriously impact its ability to make an evidence-based assessment of the dam’s environmental impacts.

“They are not even allowed to discuss issues like the width of the reservoir and specifications of the dam,” Noureddine says. A report from the committee is due to be issued in around 15 months.

Meanwhile, Dia El-Din Ahmed El-Quosy, a professor at Egypt’s National Water Research Center and former advisor to the country’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, says: “The agreement is free of any technical details, such as how the dam reservoir will be filled.”...

NASA image of the Aswan Dam in Egypt

Egypt's Al-Sisi and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister agree on further Renaissance Dam coordination

The Daily News (Egypt): President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi said Egypt does not oppose Ethiopia’s right to development through implementation of projects on the River Nile, in a Thursday meeting with Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. Al-Sisi added, however, that there should be consideration of Egypt’s water rights, particularly as the river Nile constitutes the only source of the country’s water needs.

The meeting came on the sidelines of the 24th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union (AU) in Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. Al-Sisi and Desalgen agreed that the solution for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) issue will be coordinated through a joint commission, according to an official presidential statement by spokesperson.

During his short visit, Al-Sisi also held several bilateral meetings with the presidents of Tunisa, Tunisia, Uganda, Djibouti, South Sudan and the prime minister of Sweden, amongst others.

...The GERD has been an issue of contention and tripartite talks between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. The latter two nations have expressed concern over the potential impact the hydroelectric dam could have on their share of vital River Nile water.

The foreign ministers of Egypt and Ethiopia expressed in November mutual recognition for the water rights of each other’s nations following the fifth session of the Egyptian-Ethiopian joint committee in Addis Ababa. ...

The Nile in Sudan, viewed by NASA

Egypt denies Ethiopia row over dam study deadline

Nazret.com via Anadolu Agency: Egyptian Irrigation Minister Hossam Moghazi on Friday denied reports that Ethiopia had asked to extend the deadline for a technical study on the anticipated impact of a controversial mega-dam that it is building on the Nile River's upper reaches. "The agreement between Cairo, Addis Ababa and Khartoum to allow a six-month period for carrying out the evaluation has not changed," Moghazi told The Anadolu Agency.

In recent days, certain Egyptian media outlets had reported that Ethiopia had asked to extend the sixth-month deadline to two years. Moghazi, however, said some research firms that had been shortlisted by a tripartite technical committee to conduct two impact studies on Ethiopia's dam project had asked to postpone submission of their proposals.

He added that the committee had given the firms a December 30 deadline by which to submit proposals.

Since September, a Tripartite National Committee – a 12-member experts' panel responsible for aiding implementation of recommendations issued by an International Panel of Experts – has held two working sessions in Addis Ababa and Cairo.

At the two meetings, representatives of the three countries were able to produce a list of seven firms, one of which will be selected to conduct the studies.

Ethiopia says the multibillion-dollar Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is needed to generate badly-need energy. The project has strained Ethiopia's relations with downstream Egypt, which fears the project will reduce its historical share of water...

The Nile seen from the International Space Station. Via NASA

Nile River monitoring influences North-East Africa’s future

A press release from Curtin University (Australia): Curtin University research that monitors the volume of water in the Nile River Basin will help to level the playing field for more than 200 million North-East Africans who rely on the river’s water supply.

Despite being arguably the longest river in the world, winding through nine different countries, the Nile River is shallow and has a low volume, making its water precious, particularly to those countries located downstream.

Curtin Associate Professor Joseph Awange, Department of Spatial Sciences, has been monitoring extractions or additions of water to the Nile River, and reporting the results to affected countries to allow them to plan for sustainable use of its resources in the future.

“Water levels can be affected by both man-made and natural causes, and our research separates the effects of rain downpours, drought and environmental degradation, so that we can learn about the effects of human uses,” Associate Professor Awange said.

“The difficulty is that human uses – including increased population and domestic water consumption, hydroelectric power and increased agriculture – are all tied to the economic growth of the country implementing it.

“Our project, which was undertaken with Associate Professor Michael Kuhn, also from Curtin’s Department of Spatial Sciences, in conjunction with German researchers, has provided independent, factual understandings which the countries involved can then use to make better decisions, and hopefully plan for sustainable use of the river’s resources for the whole region.”

The project uses data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, which uses two satellites to detect spatio-temporal changes in the Earth’s gravity field, combined with mathematic techniques to isolate the total water storage (surface, groundwater, and soil moisture) of specific areas....

Aerial view of the Nile at Luxor

Economic cooperation between Egypt and Ethiopia on the rise

Walaa Hussein in al-Monitor: Cairo is working on resuming the Ethiopian-Egyptian activities that were suspended on all levels. This comes in tandem with the preparations for the expected visit of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to Ethiopia, and as part of the restoration of dialogue aiming to settle the dispute between the countries over the Renaissance Dam under construction on the Blue Nile. The dialogue was re-opened following the meeting that was held between the Ethiopian prime minister and Sisi on the sidelines of the last African Summit held in Equatorial Guinea

Ambassador Salah Abdel Sadek, chairman of Egypt’s State Information Service, said in an interview with Al-Monitor, “A call has been made to activate the activities of the Egyptian-Ethiopian committee, provided that its meetings will be resumed to look into ways to support relations between both countries, and reinforce cooperation on the scientific, cultural, agricultural, irrigation, educational, tourism, communication, meat industry [and] industrial zones levels.”

In 2006, the Egyptian-Ethiopian committee was formed, presided over by the foreign ministers of both countries, and its respective agreement was drafted. As tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia in the negotiations over the Nile waters flared, the work of the committee came to a halt. Its last meeting was held in 2011 on the sidelines of the visit of the late Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi to Egypt, following the January 25 Revolution.

After the suspension of this committee’s work, Zenawi decided to form a tripartite Egyptian-Ethiopian-Sudanese committee to solve the issue of the dam and bring into view the damages inflicted on the two downstream countries. The meetings of the committee, however, were not completed and its activities were suspended as the relations between Egypt and Ethiopia became tense again when the dialogue over the crisis of the dam was hindered, as related to Al-Monitor by an official in the Egyptian Foreign Ministry.

The same source said, “The president’s visit that is being planned will not only involve Addis Ababa, but also a number of the Nile Basin countries, as the president wishes to re-open dialogue with upstream countries over the mechanism of the just use of the Nile water in such a way that does not harm any other country.”...

Aerial view of the Blue Nile leaving Lake Tana. Image released into the public domain by ZeGhion

More people, less water mean rising food imports for Egypt

Maggie Fick and Shadi Bushra at the Thomson Reuters Foundation:  ...For the past 15 years, antiquated irrigation systems and a government conservation drive have kept many farmers from nutrient-rich Nile waters, forcing them to tap sewage-filled canals despite their proximity to the world's longest river.

...But even as Egypt wrestles with dwindling water from its only major source, the Nile, it pushes farmers to grow more to supply the country's costly subsidised food programme. The two goals, farmers and experts say, are at odds with one another.

And efforts to make the most of precious farmland have been hampered by decades of urban sprawl, which has accelerated since 2011 when the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak led to a security vacuum.

The government, anxious to stimulate economic recovery after years of political turmoil, wants to cut its $4.5 billion food import bill. Most of that bill goes to subsidies that guarantee universal access to bread at less than one U.S. cent (0.05 Egyptian pounds) per loaf.

That makes Egypt the world's top wheat importer, purchasing around 10 million tonnes a year. "The problem of import dependence is going to get worse," said Nicholas Lodge, managing partner at Clarity, a Gulf-based agricultural investment firm. "You have population growth outstripping the ability of the agricultural sector to improve production, which is held back by land and water shortages."

Egypt already grows a large amount, including 7 million tonnes of wheat a year according to traders, largely because Cairo offers farmers above-market prices to spur production....

A wheat field in the Nile Valley, shot by Wilhelms, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Egypt to destroy illegal buildings along Nile to help farmers

Reuters: Egypt will destroy all buildings along the Nile River and its tributaries that were erected illegally, the water and irrigation minister said on Monday, seeking to protect canals needed to help grow food. The government will "not be complacent in the face of encroachment on the Nile River and its tributaries and streams", Minister Mohamed Abdel Motteleb was quoted as saying by the state news agency MENA.

Egypt is the world's biggest wheat importer, a drain on its precarious finances. Officials say illegal building along the Nile has increased in the turbulent years since a 2011 uprising which also scared away investors and tourists, major sources of foreign exchange.

Motteleb made his pledge in the Nile Delta town of Banha, in the heart of Egypt's breadbasket region north of Cairo. He inspected an illegally built 13-storey apartment building that the army and interior ministry were preparing to blow up, MENA reported, describing the action as part of the state's efforts to restore the rule of law....

El Mansoura (Arabic: المنصورة, al-manṣūrah) is a city in Egypt, with a population of 420,000. It is the capital of the Dakahlia Governorate. Mansoura lies on the east bank of the Damietta branch of the Nile, in the Delta region. Mansoura is about 120 km northeast of Cairo. Shot by Ahmed Al.Badawy, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license 

Egypt and Ethiopia spar over the Nile

Hassen Hussain in Al Jazeera.com: On Jan. 8, Ethiopia turned down Egypt’s demand that it suspend construction of its mega-dam on the Nile, further escalating tensions between the two states. Fearing that Ethiopia’s $4.2 billion project would reduce the river’s flow, Egypt calls for a halt in construction until the dam’s downstream impact is determined. Otherwise, it has vowed to protect its “historical rights” to the Nile at “any cost.”

While scoffing at Egyptian threats, Ethiopia has called for Cairo’s collaboration in negotiations and claims that the dam will have no adverse effect on Egypt. It would, in fact, decrease evaporation and improve water flow. Ethiopia hopes that the ambitious hydroelectric project, slated to be completed in 2017, would catapult the country out of poverty. Frustrated by what it described as Ethiopia’s stubborn stance, Cairo is threatening to take the issue to the United Nations Security Council.

Is this just standard diplomatic brinkmanship before an inevitable compromise, or a harbinger of a looming water war? Regardless, the lack of progress on the diplomatic front bodes
ill for a quick end to a stalemate that has long gripped the region. Home to 600 million people, more than half of Africa’s total population, the Nile Basin is already traumatized by endless internal political strife and mounting pressures to feed a population growing at Malthusian proportions.

However, as ominous as it sounds, the collapse of the talks does not necessarily mean Egypt and Ethiopia will soon be locking horns. Despite suggestions to the contrary, this is simply the waning phase of a protracted diplomatic dance before an inevitable conciliation....

Egypt's generals face watery battle

Shelly Kittleson in IPS: Heavy reliance on water intensive crops, a major upstream dam project for the Nile basin, and rising groundwater levels pushing at pharaoh-era monuments will be pressing issues for the next Egyptian president – whether military or civilian.

As criticism continues over the military’s heavy-handedness to quell protests, little attention is being given to the late January announcement by Egypt’s minister of irrigation and water resources on the growing severity of the country’s water shortage: share of water per citizen stands at 640 cubic metres, compared with an international standard of 1,000.

The minister said he expected this amount to decrease to 370 cubic metres by 2050 due to a rapidly growing population. A scientist working in the water resources sector expressed cautious hope to IPS that “the military is one of the few institutions that can actually get things done.” But he added: “That said, they were in power for a long time and didn’t do anything.”

Improving irrigation practices and countering the demographic explosion are some of the most commonly cited actions to be considered, as well as reducing the use of pesticides and improving sewage and waste disposal systems to prevent contaminating the limited water supplies available.

...Egypt’s agriculture sector consumes well over 80 percent of the country’s annual water resources and sugarcane accounts for a large portion, alongside rice and cotton. Rice production has been banned by the government in some areas for its heavy water requirements, though it commands a high price on the international market, is a staple for the population, and a certain quantity helps control soil salinity and limits saltwater intrusion in the Delta....

Irrigation in the Egyptian desert, shot by David Monniaux and Mai-Linh Doan, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Nile Delta disappearing beneath the sea

IPS: …Spread over 25,000 kilometres, the densely populated Nile Delta is the breadbasket of Egypt, accounting for two-thirds of the country’s agricultural production and home to 40 million people. Its northern flank, running 240 kilometres from Alexandria to Port Said, is one of the most vulnerable coastlines in the world, facing the triple threat of coastal erosion, saltwater infiltration, and rising sea levels.

According to Khaled Ouda, a geologist at Assiut University, a 30 centimetres rise in sea level would inundate 6,000 square kilometres of the Nile Delta. The flooding would create islands out of an additional 2,000 square kilometres of elevated land, isolating towns, roads, fields, and industrial facilities.

“The total (area of the Delta) expected to be impacted by a rising of the sea level by one metre during this century will be 8,033 square kilometres, which is nearly 33 percent of the total area of the Nile Delta,” Ouda told IPS.

In a report released last September, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a sea level rise of 28 to 98 centimetres by 2100, more than twice its 2007 projections. Even by the most conservative estimate, this would destroy 12.5 percent of Egypt’s cultivated areas and displace about eight million people, or nearly 10 percent of the population…..

NASA image of the Nile Delta

Egypt will never give up one drop of its Nile water quota - minister

AllAfrica.com via Egypt Information Service: Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Abdel-Motleb disclosed that consultations are currently being underway with the Sudanese and Ethiopian counterparts to render successful the forthcoming ministerial meeting to be held Khartoum during the first week of January 2014.

The meeting will probe an appropriate mechanism for pursuing the technical studies required from the Ethiopian part as well as assigning an international consultative bureau to perform them, said the Minister.

Such studies will deal with the technical details of the Renaissance Dam's storage bases, storage phases and mechanism of operations all year round, he added.

The minister went on to say that Egyptian State is dealing seriously with the Renaissance Dam crisis in cooperation with the Nile basin states, noting that the meetings of the Supreme Committee for Nile Water have resulted in promoting ties with the Ethiopian side.

He added that Egypt will never give up one drop of its Nile water quota, highlighting that all parties concerned should work on reaching an agreement that serves the interest of all Nile riparian countries through a comprehensive development....

NASA image of the Aswan Dam in southern Egypt

In switch, Egypt may join Ethiopia In Nile dam project

Ayah Aman in Al-Monitor: Cairo and Addis Ababa may soon reach a truce to calm their dispute over the construction of the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. Both countries have recently shown good faith and agreed to negotiate about the project. Egypt has even agreed to take part in building the dam, though without declaring its conditions for doing so.

At a news conference Oct. 7, Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced that his country welcomes the participation of Egypt and Sudan in the construction of the dam and stressed that his government considers the dam to be jointly owned by Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt. Cairo viewed his statement as a positive step toward reaching a consensus on the project, despite its earlier sharp criticism of it.

In a telephone conversation Oct. 17, Egyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Mohamed Abdul Muttalib told Al-Monitor: “Egypt doesn’t mind joining the Ethiopian government in building the dam for the service and development of the Ethiopian people. But we must agree on a number of items in a clear way to prevent any damage to Egypt as a result of the dam construction. The Egyptian government always opts for cooperation and participation. … During the coming negotiations with Ethiopia over the dam, we will clarify our position regarding the policy and method of operating the dam, the size of the storage lake attached to it, and how to fill it with water in times of flood and drought.” He stressed, “Egypt will definitely not participate in the construction unless these policies are agreed upon and agreements regarding them are signed.”

...Egypt gets 55.5 billion cubic meters of Nile water annually in accordance with the 1959 agreement signed between Egypt and Sudan. About 85% of that share comes from the Ethiopian plateau, in particular from the Blue Nile tributary, on which Ethiopia intends to build the Renaissance Dam to store 63 billion cubic meters of water in and generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. The Ethiopian, Sudanese and Egyptian water ministers are expected to meet Oct. 20-23 in Khartoum to discuss the May report of the Tripartite Commission on the repercussions of the dam and how to implement the report’s recommendations for avoiding harm to any of the Nile states....

A rendering of the dam provided by Salini General Contractors, the Italian company inked to build the dam, March 31, 2011. (photo by Wikipedia/Salini)

The struggle for control of the world's longest river

Elissa Jobson in AllAfrica.com via Africa In Fact: Strong emotions rise to the surface when discussions turn to the Nile, the world’s longest river. Most debate swirls around control of its basin which is shared by 11 African nations. Politicians and others have pondered the chances of a war over its life-giving waters: slim but increasing given the escalating tensions over Ethiopia’s plan to build a massive hydropower dam on the river.

“For Egypt the Nile equals life,” affirms Mohamed Edrees, Egypt’s ambassador to Ethiopia. “It is almost the only source of water for Egypt and that means that it is the only source of life. So it’s obvious that this issue, for Egyptians, is of vital importance and of high sensitivity. It is an issue of existence.”

The Nile basin covers almost 10% of Africa’s landmass (3.1m km2) and supports over 200m people, more than half living below the poverty line and dependent on rainfed agriculture for their survival. The twin pressures of energy and food security—through hydroelectric generation and irrigation schemes—are placing ever-greater demands on the Nile. In addition, land degradation, rising temperatures and possible changes in rainfall patterns, as a result of climate change, are threatening to alter the river’s flow.

Egypt is implementing large new irrigation projects that will draw additional water from the Nile. It is especially anxious about increased usage by the other ten Nile basin states south of its border: Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a massive hydroelectric installation 40km east of Sudan, is one of the new projects worrying the downstream nations of Egypt and Sudan. Standing at 145m high and 1,800m long with a reservoir holding 63 billion cubic metres of water, this dam will be one of Africa’s largest. It has the potential to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity—three times Ethiopia’s existing capacity—and is expected to turn the country into a regional power hub....

Landsat photo of the Nile Delta from space

Ethiopia urges Nile nations to ratify deal opposed by Egypt

Terra Daily via AFP: Ethiopia used a regional meeting Thursday aimed to promote cooperation over the Nile river to urge other nations to ratify a controversial water deal fiercely opposed by Egypt.

Addressing water ministers and officials from the 10-nation Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), Ethiopia's Minister for Water and Energy Alemayehu Tegenu challenged Egypt's historical majority control usage of the river water. "We will not allow a single country to have full control over our shared resources," Alemayehu said, speaking at the annual NBI conference held in Juba, the capital of its newest member South Sudan.

The countries have been embroiled in a heated row after Ethiopia began diverting the Blue Nile River last month for the construction of the 6,000 megawatt Grand Renaissance Dam, sparking concern in Cairo about the impact on downstream water levels.

Ethiopia's parliament last week was the first to ratify the NBI's Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), a deal that replaces a colonial-era agreement that granted Egypt and Sudan the majority of water rights. It allows upstream countries to implement irrigation and hydropower projects without first seeking Egypt's approval....

The route of the Nile, map added to by Roke, building upon work by DanMS, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Ethiopia, Egypt tone down talk of war over Nile dam

Reuters: Africa's second and third most populous nations have traded barbs in past weeks about Ethiopia's new hydroelectric project, which Egypt fears will reduce a water supply vital for its 84 million people, who mostly live in the Nile valley and delta.

Egyptian President Mohamed Mursi said on June 10 he did not want war, but would keep "all options open", prompting Ethiopia to say it was ready to defend its $4.7 billion Great Renaissance Dam, which lies near the border with Sudan.

Ethiopia summoned the Egyptian ambassador this month after politicians in Cairo were shown on television suggesting they supported Ethiopian rebels and military action.

"Some pronouncements were made in the heat of the moment because of emotions. They are behind us," Mohamed Kamel Amr, Egypt's foreign minister, told a joint news conference with his Ethiopian counterpart Tedros Adhanom in Ethiopia's capital....

Blue Nile meeting the White Nile below Khartoum, shot by NASA

Ganges, Nile and Amazon seen suffering more floods from warming

Reuters: Climate change is likely to worsen floods on rivers such as the Ganges, the Nile and the Amazon this century while a few, including the now-inundated Danube, may become less prone, a Japanese-led scientific study said on Sunday.

The findings will go some way to help countries prepare for deluges that have killed thousands of people worldwide and caused tens of billions of dollars in damage every year in the past decade, experts wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Given enough warning, governments can bring in flood barriers, building bans on flood plains, more flood-resistant crops and other measures to limit damage. Overall, a "large increase" in flood frequency is expected in south-east Asia, central Africa and much of South America this century, the experts in Japan and Britain wrote.

Severe floods would happen more often on most of the 29 rivers reviewed in detail, including the Yangtze, Mekong and Ganges in Asia, the Niger, the Congo and the Nile in Africa, the Amazon and the Parana in Latin America and the Rhine in Europe.

Flooding would become less frequent in a handful of river basins including the Mississippi in the United States, the Euphrates in the Middle East and the Danube in Europe. The experts predicted that northwestern Europe, where the Rhine flows, would be damper while a band from the Mediterranean Sea through eastern Europe - including the Danube region - into Russia would be drier....

The scientists said there were wide bands of uncertainty.

The edge of the Nile's flood plain, shot by Andrew®, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Addis Ababa says Egypt shouldn't worry about Nile dam

AllAfrica.com via Voice of America: Ethiopia says there is no reason for Egypt to worry about the massive hydroelectric dam it is building on the Blue Nile, one of the two main tributaries of the Nile River. Ethiopia began diverting the Blue Nile last week as it moves ahead with construction of the dam, despite concerns from Egypt and Sudan.

Ethiopia's Water Minister Alemayehu Tegenu says construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam poses no threat to Egypt or Sudan, two countries that depend heavily on the Nile for their water supply. "We do not have any plan to harm downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt. If Egypt has some issues to discuss with Ethiopia, we are very ready to discuss," said Alemayehu Tegenu.

There are fears the dam could spark regional tension. Ethiopia's move to divert the Blue Nile sparked protests last week at the Ethiopian embassy in Cairo. Some Egyptians have asked to bring the matter to the International Court of Justice for arbitration. Both countries must accept arbitration before it can take place, but Alemayehu says Ethiopia will not accept such intervention.

"No, there is no point of going to an international court. I do not see any issues that bring the issue to that level," he said.

A committee with experts from Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia worked on a report for more than a year to study the possible impacts of the dam, including reduced river flow. The report, released to governments on Friday night, concluded that construction of the dam is meeting international standards, but that further assessments are needed on environmental and social issues....

A falls on the Blue Nile, shot by Peter Jeschofnig, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Ethiopia boosts Nile water dispute with Egypt

Space Daily via UPI: Ethiopia has begun diverting the Blue Nile to build a giant hydroelectric dam, cutting the flow of water to Egypt, Sudan and other downstream states and raising tensions in a long-running dispute with Cairo.

With Egypt in turmoil and financial straits in the lingering aftermath of the 2011 pro-democracy ouster of longtime President Hosni Mubarak, and Sudan gripped by political upheaval following the secession of oil-rich South Sudan in 2012, the long-running Nile issue could turn nasty.

Ethiopia insisted that the flow levels of the world's longest river wouldn't be affected by the 6,000-megawatt, $4.7 billion Grand Renaissance Dam. But Cairo and Khartoum say that once the massive project, one of several dams Addis Ababa is building, is completed, supposedly by 2015, their share of the Nile water will be reduced by 18 billion cubic meters a year.

The Ethiopian dam is to have a reservoir of 63 billion cubic meters of water, one of the largest in Africa. Filling that would immediately cut the water flow to Sudan and Egypt. How bad that will be depends on the rate at which the Ethiopians decide to fill the reservoir....

Bahir Dar near the place where Blue Nile leaves Lake Tana, shot by ZeGhion, public domain

Amid Egypt crisis, Ethiopia pushes Nile dam

Space Daily: Ethiopia is driving to complete its massive $4.8 billion Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile amid a long-running dispute with Egypt that will likely worsen in the months ahead unless addressed.

Egypt faces destabilization as it stands to lose much of the Nile water that is its lifeblood. Ethiopia's development plans depend on an ambitious multi-dam program announced in 2011. Cairo describes this as a threat to Egypt's national security, heightening tension in the escalating battle for control over the world's longest river.

But the wave of domestic turmoil that has gripped the Arab world's most populous nation since the February 2011 overthrow of longtime dictator Hosni Mubarak, has pushed the Nile problem onto Cairo's back burner.

It's likely to be thrust even more to one side amid the tumult unleashed Nov. 23 when Mubarak's Islamist successor, President Mohamed Morsi, decreed himself near-absolute powers and immunity from legal oversight. His surprise move triggered nationwide protests and accusations he was becoming a dictator like Mubarak.

Morsi flew to Addis Ababa in July, soon after he became president, seeking to negotiate a settlement to the Nile dispute. His two-day visit was a milestone in the stormy relations between the countries but Ethiopia's strongman, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, reportedly refused to compromise on his plan to spend $12 billion on hydroelectric projects on the upper reaches of the Nile intended to produce 40,000 megawatts by 2035....

The Nile from space