Ebola - is culture the real killer?

An opinion piece by Obinna Anyadike, Editor-at-Large, in IRIN: “African culture” – cute if you’re a tourist, catastrophic when you want to put a lid on Ebola, or so some international health experts and media coverage of the outbreak would have us believe.

Why do people persist with risky funeral rites, eat Ebola-harbouring bushmeat, and occasionally attack the very health workers sent to help, the news reports leave us wondering. What is the value of “traditional beliefs” when they are harmful: why can’t people just act more rationally?

The simple answer is; ask the communities. The growing number of researchers that do, find that people are acting as responsibly as they can in desperate circumstances. The lack of a properly functioning Ebola response and weak healthcare services has forced communities into rough and ready self-reliance. Faced with hotlines going unanswered, overcrowded Ebola Treatment Units (ETU), militarized quarantine areas, communities are actually looking for more information, not less.

“Communities will do the best they can given the resources they have, even if ‘un-cultural’, in moments of crisis in order to fight for a future,” a recent study exploring community responses in urban Liberia found. It noted community leaders want training so they can provide safe burials; young men are rallying to guard their neighborhoods against perceived threats; and some people, ill-advisedly, have improvised protection suits out of raincoats and plastic bags to nurse the sick....

Hospital in Kenema, Sierra Leone, where blood samples are tested for ebola, shot by Leasmhar, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Nile River monitoring influences North-East Africa’s future

A press release from Curtin University (Australia): Curtin University research that monitors the volume of water in the Nile River Basin will help to level the playing field for more than 200 million North-East Africans who rely on the river’s water supply.

Despite being arguably the longest river in the world, winding through nine different countries, the Nile River is shallow and has a low volume, making its water precious, particularly to those countries located downstream.

Curtin Associate Professor Joseph Awange, Department of Spatial Sciences, has been monitoring extractions or additions of water to the Nile River, and reporting the results to affected countries to allow them to plan for sustainable use of its resources in the future.

“Water levels can be affected by both man-made and natural causes, and our research separates the effects of rain downpours, drought and environmental degradation, so that we can learn about the effects of human uses,” Associate Professor Awange said.

“The difficulty is that human uses – including increased population and domestic water consumption, hydroelectric power and increased agriculture – are all tied to the economic growth of the country implementing it.

“Our project, which was undertaken with Associate Professor Michael Kuhn, also from Curtin’s Department of Spatial Sciences, in conjunction with German researchers, has provided independent, factual understandings which the countries involved can then use to make better decisions, and hopefully plan for sustainable use of the river’s resources for the whole region.”

The project uses data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, which uses two satellites to detect spatio-temporal changes in the Earth’s gravity field, combined with mathematic techniques to isolate the total water storage (surface, groundwater, and soil moisture) of specific areas....

Aerial view of the Nile at Luxor

The most vulnerable populations to climate change: floods, droughts and extreme weather

Catherine Griffin in Science World Report: While climate change can benefit some locations, other areas are more at risk. Now, scientists have taken a look at which sections of the world's population are left most at risk to food shortages and extreme weather events.

Extreme weather events can leave populations with not enough food both in the short- and long-term. That's why scientists decided to take a look at which populations could be most affected by these events. More specifically, they tracked the effects on four countries, including Russia, East Africa, Pakistan and the Philippines, which all experienced extreme weather events that ranged from drought to flooding.

Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of heatwaves and floods. Although there's no scientific evidence to show that a specific weather event would not have happened without climate change, the risk of the event does indeed increase. In fact, the new findings show that the heat wave that occurred in Russia and the drought that occurred in East Africa were most likely caused by climate change.

"Weather has always affected flood security, particularly for many of the world's poorest people," said John Ingram, one of the lead authors of the new study, in a news release. "Perhaps we think of farmers or fishermen first, but extreme weather will affect many more people in other ways too. While direct measures such as emergency preparedness and the strengthening of response-related institutions is helpful, this study has identified the need for a wider cultural shift to ensure the poorest and most vulnerable are properly protected."...

US Army photo of 2010 flooding in Pakistan

Food security alarm for east, central Africa

IRIN: Some 20 million people are facing acute food insecurity in eastern and central Africa, with most of them being at “crisis” and “emergency” levels, according to aid agencies. This figure compares unfavorably with 15.8 million people in July 2013.  The affected countries include Somalia, Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Central Africa Republic (CAR), Sudan, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Tanzania.

“The overall nutrition situation in the region has deteriorated precipitously and, according to survey results, the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) levels are higher than 20 percent, exceeding the World Health Organization’s emergency threshold of 15 percent, especially in parts of South Sudan, CAR, Somalia and northern Kenya,” said the East and Central Africa Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), a multi-stakeholder regional forum chaired by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

FSNWG warned that the situation could deteriorate further in the absence of quick action.  “FSNWG strongly believes that in the absence of an increased and immediate multi-sectoral response, the food and nutrition status of affected populations is likely to deteriorate further.”...

Kenya food aid, image by USAID

Climate change and agriculture in East Africa

A press release from the International Food Policy Research Institute: Population growth in East Africa is among the highest in the world and could worsen food insecurity, which is already severe. Arable areas in the region are under severe pressure to increase their productivity to feed a rapidly increasing human population. Climate change could exacerbate the situation; adaptation is essential for sustained economic growth in the East Africa. This is the challenge facing policymakers, who must plan for the future without available information and analysis.

A new book, published by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and released today by three research organizations, starts to fill this information gap. East African Agriculture and Climate Change examines the food security threats facing 11 of the countries that make up East and central Africa—Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda—and explores how climate change will increase the requirements for achieving sustainable food security throughout the region. Agriculture drives these countries’ economies and accounts for 43 percent of their annual gross domestic product.

The book is the result of collaboration among IFPRI, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA), and scientists f
rom each of the countries studied. Using sophisticated modeling and available data to develop future scenarios and explore a range of climate change consequences for agriculture, food security, and resource management, the book offers recommendations to national governments and regional agencies. Findings from the book include the following:

• Without adaptation, climate change will have negative effects on wheat, soybean, sorghum, and irrigated rice yields. Yield declines for each crop are different, but they range between 5 and 20 percent, with irrigated rice being the crop most negatively impacted.
• Rainfed maize and rainfed rice yields might increase slightly because of climate change, generally because of projected higher rainfall in some areas.
• Of the major crops grown in the region, maize is likely to have the highest price increase by 2050, with some models showing the real price doubling on the global markets.
• With adaptation to climate change, including investment in agricultural technology (including development of new varieties), maize yields could increase across the region by more than 50 percent between now and 2050....

Study provides new insights on drought predictions in East Africa

Wood Hole Oceanographic Institution: With more than 40 million people living under exceptional drought conditions in East Africa, the ability to make accurate predictions of drought has never been more important. In the aftermath of widespread famine and a humanitarian crisis caused by the 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa—possibly the worst drought in 60 years— researchers are striving to determine whether drying trends will continue.

While it is clear that El Niño can affect precipitation in this region of East Africa, very little is known about the drivers of long-term shifts in rainfall. However, new research described in the journal Nature helps explain the mechanisms at work behind historical patterns of aridity in Eastern Africa over many decades, and the findings may help improve future predictions of drought and food security in the region.

“The problem is, instrumental records of temperature and rainfall, especially in East Africa, don't go far enough in time to study climate variability over decades or more, since they are generally limited to the 20th century,” explains first author Jessica Tierney, a geologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). Tierney and her colleagues at WHOI and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University used what is known as the paleoclimate record, which provides information on climate in the geologic past, to study East African climate change over a span of 700 years.

The paleoclimate record in East Africa consists of indicators of moisture balance—including pollen, water isotopes, charcoal, and evidence for run-off events – measured in lake sediment cores. Tierney and her colleagues synthesized these data, revealing a clear pattern wherein the easternmost sector of East Africa was relatively dry in medieval times (from 1300 to 1400 a.d.), wet during the “Little Ice Age” from approximately 1600 to 1800 a.d., and then drier again toward the present time.

Climate model simulations analyzed as part of the study revealed that the relationship between sea surface temperatures and atmospheric convection in the Indian Ocean changes rainfall in East Africa. Specifically, wet conditions in coastal East Africa are associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, which cause ascending atmospheric circulation over East Africa and enhanced rainfall. The opposite situation—cold sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and warmer in the East—causes drought. Such variations in sea-surface temperatures likely caused the historical fluctuations in rainfall seen in the paleorecord...

Climate model simulations analyzed as part of the study revealed that the relationship between sea surface temperatures and atmospheric convection in the Indian Ocean changes rainfall in East Africa. Specifically, wet conditions in coastal East Africa are associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, which cause ascending atmospheric circulation over East Africa and enhanced rainfall. The opposite situation—cold sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and warmer in the East—causes drought. Such variations in sea-surface temperatures likely caused the historical fluctuations in rainfall seen in the paleorecord.(Courtesy Jessica Tierney, et al, 2013)

Tackling climate change and livestock markets in the Horn of Africa

Carol Clark at Emory University:  For thousands of years, Muslims have gathered in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, for the hajj—an annual, five-day pilgrimage to the holy city. The largest pilgrimage in the world, the hajj draws millions of Muslims, and each year they feast on ritually sacrificed meat.

Much of that livestock, more than two million animals, now comes from the Horn of Africa. “It’s big business, but it’s unclear how much small-scale livestock producers in East Africa really benefit from the growing demand for their products in the Middle East,” says Emory anthropologist Peter Little. That’s one of the questions Little plans to tackle during the next phase of his research into how East African pastoralists make a living amid the vagaries of a harsh environment and climate change.

Little, who has been studying the region’s pastoralists for three decades, recently received an additional $700,000 from the Livestock-Climate Change (LCC) Collaborative Research Support Program to continue working on a joint project in the region. The LCC program, based at Colorado State University, was established in 2010 through an agreement with the US Agency for International Development.

Emory is partnering with Pwani University College in Kenya, Addis Ababa University in Ethiopia, and the Nairobi-based International Livestock Research Institute for the current phase of the project. In addition to Little’s deep experience in the region, Emory brings a strong public health component to the research and the expertise of disease ecologist Uriel Kitron, chair of environmental studies.

“One thing we will be looking at is how the warming of East Africa is creating different kinds of disease vectors, affecting both livestock and humans,” says Little, who also directs Emory’s new Development Studies program. The project ultimately aims to increase income and food security in the extremely vulnerable Horn of Africa. The region is confronting yet another drought disaster and violent conflict between Kenya and Somalia. “It’s a challenge working in the Horn of Africa on many levels,” Little says. “But the research questions are exciting, and so is the potential to have an impact. It’s a worthy goal.”...

In Ethiopia's Ghibe valley, ILRI-led Tsetse Fly control methods have allowed cattle to flourish in an area previously almost uninhabitable for them. This has encouragd more farming in the area, relieving to a degree population and soil erosion pressures in higher, Tsetse free, elevations. Shot by ILRI/Stevie Mann, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Horn of Africa plans to reduce drought and famine impact

CoastWeek via Xinhua: Leaders of the Inter-Governmental Authority of Development (IGAD) that comprises of Horn of Africa countries are meeting in Kenya on Wednesday to create a new plan that will enable the region apply early warning mechanisms to better deal with drought and famine.

Leaders drawn from the seven member countries, bilateral and donor institutions agreed here on the urgency of the need to have a new plan and a Drought Trust Fund as soon as possible because the growing effects of climate change are making droughts more frequent and severe.

Participants raised concerns that most of the IGAD requests for support from donors is usually meant to address drought emergency situations. They agreed that the new plan should be based on addressing resilience and should be backed by a very strong drought early warning mechanism that is well linked to institutions that coordinate response.

IGAD Executive Secretary Mahboub Maalim said that with the changing cycle of drought where it was now occurring every two years, there is need to undertake and sustain long term programs aimed at vulnerability reduction and resilience building.

“The region requires long term investments that will form the bedrock of this resilience. Short term projects should well link to the overall long term objectives,” he said, citing the need for infrastructure investments in dry land areas to facilitate creation of wealth....

Drought warning prompts for Horn of Africa call for early action

IRIN: Drought is likely to return to Somalia and other parts of the Horn of Africa over the next three months, say regional climate scientists meeting in the Rwandan capital, Kigali. The forecast comes just weeks after the UN declared the Somali “famine” over.

“There is a high probability of drought returning to the Greater Horn of Africa…Poor rains are a definite in all of Somalia, Djibouti, northern Kenya, southern, eastern and northeastern Ethiopia,” said Laban Ogallo, director of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which provides forecasts for the Horn.

“We have put the message out there. It is now up to governments, civil society and the media to prepare… for the worst-case scenario even if the worst does not happen. There is no harm in being prepared,” he said. “We must realize many of these areas are already facing the cumulative impact of several droughts.”

Youcef Ait Chellouche, deputy regional coordinator of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, said the coping mechanism of people in most of these areas who experienced severe drought in 2010-2011, is almost non-existent. In the coming days, he said, he would be meeting disaster risk managers from various countries and agencies to draw up a plan for early action.

“We cannot wait for people to show up in Dadaab [refugee camp in eastern Kenya] yet again. We have to take preventive action now. We need to find ways to secure livestock and provide cash transfers to people now. These are some of the lessons from last year’s drought,” he added...

The Horn of Africa, map by Skilla1st, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license