Climate change models find staple crops face ruin on up to one million square kilometers of African farmland

Science Daily: A new study by researchers from the Nairobi-based International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) and the United Kingdom's Waen Associates has found that by 2050, hotter conditions, coupled with shifting rainfall patterns, could make anywhere from 500,000 to one million square kilometers of marginal African farmland no longer able to support even a subsistence level of food crops. However, the land, on which some 20 to 35 million people currently live, may still support livestock.

Boosting livestock production could be an attractive alternative for millions of poor farmers across Africa who, in the coming decades, could find that climate change has rendered their lands unsuitable for crop cultivation yet still viable for raising animals, according to the study that appears this week in a special edition of the journal Environmental Science and Policy. "Livestock, particularly animals that are known to be tolerant of heat and drought, can survive in conditions that are far more severe than what crops can tolerate," said Philip Thornton, an ILRI scientist and one of the paper's co-authors. "Livestock can provide poor households with a buffer against the risk of climate change and, allow them to take advantage of the increasing demand for animal products in Africa."

"Any increase in livestock must be managed sustainably," said Carlos Seré, Director General of ILRI, which is one of 15 research centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). "But our research shows there are many areas in Africa where over the next few decades climate vulnerability coupled with market demand for animal products will prompt many farming communities to add more livestock to their agriculture systems and we should prepare now for this inevitability. "

…They concluded that under scenarios in which carbon emissions remain high, the number of reliable growing days would drop below 90 for almost one million square kilometers of marginal growing lands in Africa. Assuming a "lower emission scenario," they project about 500,000 square kilometers would fail to reach the 90-day mark. The researchers warn that if reliable growing periods drop below 90 days in these areas, "maize cultivation, already marginal, will basically no longer be possible as a normal agricultural activity." They continue, saying that in some places, rain could become so scarce that "even the drought-tolerant crops such as millet" will be difficult to grow. They say that in these conditions, livestock could be the key to keeping food on the table and for earning income as well…

A cow and sheep pastured together in South Africa, shot by Lollie-Pop, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 License