El Nino could develop within weeks: U.S. forecaster

Reuters: The El Nino weather pattern, which can bring global weather chaos such as droughts and floods, could develop within weeks, the Climate Prediction Center in the United States said. El Nino is driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific and the forecaster said conditions were favorable for a switch to El Nino conditions during June to August 2009.

The forecast is the latest warning of the increased chances of El Nino developing after months of rising ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said on Wednesday that if recent trends in Pacific climate patterns held up, there was an above-50 percent chance an El Nino event would be established by July.

El Nino occurs when the eastern Pacific Ocean heats up, with warmer, moist air moving east, leaving drier weather in the western Pacific and Australia and putting crops at risk of failure. …The prediction center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said sea surface temperatures had risen for the fifth consecutive month in the equatorial Pacific….

This NASA image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S./French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Dec. 1, 1997. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.