The adaptation deficit in Europe and Central Asia

eGov Monitor: The World Bank today warned that the impact of climate change in the Europe and Central Asia Region will be more significant than expected due to a lingering post-Soviet legacy of environmental mismanagement and the poor state of much of the Region’s infrastructure, leaving the countries poorly prepared to adapt. “Europe and Central Asia suffers from an ‘adaptation deficit’ that is already challenged by recent climate variability,” said Marianne Fay, Director of the World Bank’s World Development Report 2010, and author of the new report ‘Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia’, “which will only worsen with the consequences of projected trends in climate in the coming decades.”

Fay added that “While almost two decades have passed since the breakup of the Soviet Union and its partner countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the legacy of environmental mismanagement and oversized infrastructure in countries outside the European Union still remains a dangerous holdover from the past. It greatly worsens the countries’ vulnerability to even modest changes in the climate.”

Launched today during the UNFCCC Bonn Climate Change Talks and on the eve of ‘World Environment Day’ (June 5th), the report says that, contrary to popular perception, the Region is significantly threatened by climate change and is already experiencing the consequences: increasing variability, warmer temperatures, changing hydrology, and more extremes – droughts, floods, heat waves, as well as windstorms and forest fires.

Average temperatures across ECA have already increased by 0.5ºC in the south to 1.6ºC in the north (Siberia) since the early 1900s and overall increases of 1.6 to 2.6ºC above are expected by the middle of the century, with the greater changes occurring in the more northern latitudes. The north is projected to see greater temperature changes in winter, with the number of frost days declining by 14 to 30 days over the next 20 to 40 years. Southern parts of the region are expected to see the greatest changes in the summer, with the number of hot days increasing by 22 to 37 days over the same period. This warming trend is significant: by mid-century, countries such as Poland or Hungary are expected to experience the same number of hot days (>30oC) as today’s Spain or Sicily….

Around 1855, Roger Fenton shot this image: "Shadow of the Valley of Death" Dirt road in ravine scattered with cannonballs, Crimea. Cannon shot falling short of their target during the Siege of Sevastopol.