Lemurs of Madagascar offer clues to global-warming impact

Mike Williams in the Rice University News: Global warming may present a threat to animal and plant life even in biodiversity hot spots once thought less likely to suffer from climate change, according to a new study from Rice University.

Research by Amy Dunham, a Rice assistant professor of ecology and evolutionary biology, detailed for the first time a direct correlation between the frequency of El Niño and a threat to life in Madagascar, a tropical island that acts as a refuge for many unique species that exist nowhere else in the world. In this case, the lemur plays the role of the canary in the coal mine.

Even tropical animals, such as lemurs, may be threatened by global warming, according to a new study from Rice. … Dunham said most studies of global warming focus on temperate zones. "We all know about the polar bears and their melting sea ice," she said. "But tropical regions are often thought of as refuges during past climate events, so they haven’t been given as much attention until recently.

"We're starting to realize that not only are these hot spots of biodiversity facing habitat degradation and other anthropogenic effects, but they're also being affected by the same changes we feel in the temperate zones."

…The warming of global sea temperatures may "enhance" El Niño cycles, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Dunham found that in Ranomafana, contrary to expectations, El Niño makes wet seasons wetter. "When it rains heavily, lemurs are not active. They sit there and wait for the rain to stop, huddling for warmth," Dunham said. Anecdotal evidence suggested heavy rains knock fruit off the trees when lactating lemurs need it most, and may even kill trees outright.

Dunham learned from the data that cyclones making landfall have a direct negative effect on the fecundity – or potential reproductive capacity – of lemurs. The team also discovered that fecundity "was negatively affected when El Niño occurred in the period before conception, perhaps altering ovulation, or during the second six months of life, possibly reducing infant survival during weaning," they wrote.

"Madagascar's biodiversity is an ecological treasure," Dunham said. "But its flora and fauna already face extinction from rapid deforestation and exploitation of natural resources. The additional negative effects of climate change make conservation concerns even more urgent."…

A lemur in Madagascar, shot by either Visionholder or Stooof, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License.

Climate change will make El Nino worse

Matt Cawood in Stock & Land (Australia): The severity of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle can be expected to increase as the planet warms - but greater warmth will also boost other weather phenomena that may check that severity. That’s the nil-all finding of a review looking at how ENSO, one of the planet’s most important climate cycles, could develop under climate change.

The international science review, which involved scientists from CSIRO and the Bureau of Meterology and was recently published in Nature Geoscience, found that future ENSO cycles would be governed by countervailing influences. On one hand, warming could change ocean currents and winds in ways that could deliver El Nino conditions to eastern Australia far more often than in the past. But on the other hand, increased cloud formation could dampen tropical warming and shift the climatic balance in other directions.

Dr Wenju Cai of CSIRO’s Wealth from Oceans Flagship said that greater humidity is one phenomena certain to occur if the tropics continue to warm.

…In the tropics, observations from the past 50 years and modelling of a warmer future over the next century suggest that the winds most affected will be the east-to-west tropical trade winds. The trade winds push warmer waters to the western Pacific, off the coast of Australia and New Guinea. If the winds quieten, Dr Cai said, those warm waters are likely to disperse back to the east.

That’s not encouraging for Australia. Warm Pacific waters generate upwelling convection currents that suck in moist ocean air. When those warm waters are in the Pacific’s west, they drive what eastern Australian agriculture recognises as wet La Nina years….

Nothing says El Nino like a dismasted ship in a rough sea, by Bonaventura Peeters, from the mid-17th century

Global warming influence on El Nino still unknown

Terra Daily: The climate of the Pacific region will undergo significant changes as atmospheric temperatures rise but scientists can not yet identify the influence it will have on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather phenomenon. This is a central finding of an international science review by the World Climate Research Program's Climate Variability and Predictability Pacific Panel, published in Nature Geoscience.

The Panel convened in Australia at the Greenhouse 2009 climate change conference to consider new research that could build an understanding of changes in the behaviour of ENSO. ENSO is a naturally occurring phenomenon causing climate variability that originates in the tropical Pacific region and influences ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.

"There is an increasing body of evidence pointing to significant changes in Pacific Ocean climate as a consequence of global warming," says co-author, Dr Wenju Cai from CSIRO's Wealth from Oceans Flagship. "What we are attempting to clarify is how those changes will enhance or moderate ENSO and, in Australia's case, deliver stronger or weaker El Nino events which would have vastly different implications," he says.

…Dr Power says ENSO will continue to have a profound influence on climate around the world over the coming century " This report shows, however, that determining how ENSO will change in response to further global warming and what this means for Australia and our Pacific neighbours is a real challenge."….

This image of the Pacific Ocean shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Dec. 1, 1997. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

NOAA says chance of La Nina hitting in 2010

Rene Pastor in Reuters: A La Nina weather phenomenon, the lesser-known cousin of the more famous El Nino weather anomaly, will most likely develop in the second half of 2010, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. La Nina will come hard on the heels of an El Nino blamed for excessive rains in Brazil and the worst drought in 37 years in India. That raises the distinct possibility of more storms developing during the Atlantic Hurricane season which begins on June 1.

CPC, a unit of the U.S. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, said a large number of computer models indicates "the onset of La Nina conditions." CPC said that many computer models have shown an increased tendency for cooler sea surface readings.

This, in addition "to various oceanic and atmospheric indicators, indicate a growing possibility of La Nina developing during the second half of 2010." In the more famous El Nino, there is an abnormal warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, wreaking havoc on weather patterns from Asia to Latin America and up into North America. El Nino would allow wind shear to seep into the Atlantic, tearing apart embryonic storms forming in the area.

La Nina has the opposite effect and its formation could lead to a spike in the number of hurricanes which form during the storm season which runs to November 30. More storms could disrupt crude production off the U.S. Gulf coast at a time when the industry is wrestling with the massive oil spill after the explosion and sinking of a BP Plc rig, one of the worst environmental disasters in U.S. history….

Hurricane Rita in 2005, when it was a category 5 storm

Will climate change affect El Niño?

Nikolas Kozloff in Latin America News Dispatch: …Could global warming have something to do with the recent natural disaster? El Niño is a natural phenomenon, but some are worried that climate change could now be altering the cycle in fundamental ways. Despite technological advances, some experts still say it’s difficult to forecast the relative severity of future El Niños because the existing climate models don’t simulate the dramatic weather phenomenon very well.

Other scientists, however, warn that we are playing with fire. Recently, an international team warned that El Niño will become more intense and imperil sensitive ecosystems like the Amazon. The experts have become so alarmed that they have called for an early warning system to monitor such fragile ecosystems.

Meanwhile there’s been a growing scientific agreement about the increasing frequency of El Niños. The organization that sets the bar for scientific research on climate change is the United Nations Environment Program’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But some scientists, such as Dr. Philip Fearnside of Brazil’s National Institute for Research in the Amazon, say that the group has been very conservative in the way that it ratifies reports.

Fearnside, himself an IPCC collaborator, says that the organization’s second report in 1995 didn’t address increasing frequency of El Niño events that had become statistically significant. The IPCC, however, finally came around: in a report in 2007 the group concluded that “El Niño-like conditions,” meaning warm water in the Pacific, will become more frequent with continued global warming.

“If El Niño can be compared to a giant gun firing off climatic chaos,” a reporter for the Los Angeles Times has remarked, “Peru has the geographic misfortune of being at point-blank range.” When Peruvians hear that El Niño might become increasingly volatile and destructive in the future it strikes fear in their midst….

Sibinacocha lake (alt. 5000m), Peru, Ausangate mountains, shot by Gvillemin, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Protecting watersheds in the Philippines

Philippine Star: Amid the continuing threat of the El Niño weather phenomenon, Manila Water Co. is vigorously pursuing watershed reforestation and implementing climate change adaptation programs to help ensure sustainable water supply for Metro Manila residents. In 2007, Manila Water became the first Philippine company to have a climate change policy which covers climate change mitigation and adaptation, disaster response and mitigation, and greenhouse gas monitoring.

“Our mandate is to make sure that there is adequate water supply within our concession area. We can only do that if we have reliable water sources over the long-term and our watershed points are crucial components of the water cycle,” said Manila Water president Jose Rene Almendras during a recent forum with the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines (FOCAP).

Manila Water is currently working with local governments and other private firms to protect three important watersheds, namely: the Angat and Ipo Watersheds in Norzagaray, Bulacan and the La Mesa Watershed in Quezon City. The Angat Watershed, which houses the Angat Dam, has a combined area of 56,000 hectares and provides 97 percent of the water supply of Metro Manila while the adjacent Ipo Watershed has an area of 6,600 hectares. The La Mesa Watershed on the other hand has combined lot area 2,700 hectares.

Due to deforestation, Angat’s forest cover is now only 80 percent; Ipo, 30 percent; and La Mesa, 85 percent. Almendras said Manila Water is also taking an active role in reforesting another vital watershed area, the Marikina Watershed, which straddles a huge part of Rizal province, including Antipolo and covers about 28,000 hectares…

Map of Metro Manila showing the location of Quezon City, by Magalhães, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Southern California beach erosion is worst in a decade

Tony Barboza in the Los Angeles Times: …At Laguna's Rockpile Beach, the waves scrubbed the shore so heavily that jagged rocks and rusty remnants of an old sewer system that haven't been seen for years reemerged. "This year it was just plain rock pile," said Ken Frank, city manager of Laguna Beach. "Forget the beach."

And at Dockweiler Beach near Los Angeles International Airport, cobblestones are visible where there once was soft sand, and workers have been using heavy machinery to fill in some of the more perilous drop-offs.

….The storms' scouring of the Southern California shoreline -- remarkable at some beaches, barely noticeable at others -- has caused the worst damage and most significant beach erosion in at least a decade, according to parks and beach officials. In January and February, powerful swells, high tides and strong winds swept away tons of sand from the coastline, stealing as much as 30 to 40 feet of beachfront at some locations.

In the month or two since the El Niño-driven storms, coastal communities -- Laguna Beach, Malibu and Manhattan Beach among them -- have worked to patch the damage by making repairs and trucking in fresh sand, but some worry whether nature will return the sand as it has in the past.

The sand loss is a familiar phenomenon. Shifting sand is part of a natural cycle that happens each year. Each spring, potent storm surges pull sand from the beaches out to sea. Over the summer, gentler waves gradually push it back ashore.

Periodically, beach cities throughout Southern California try to make up for the so-called sand deficit by pumping the material in from offshore. Global warming and sea rise are contributing to the deterioration of beaches in the long term, scientists say, but those forces are not to blame for this spring's dramatic changes. It's the exceptional level of damage this year that has been cause for alarm….

Basketball courts at Venice Beach in Los Angeles, shot by Samoano, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Vietnam's Red River drying out

Thanh Thu in VietnamNet: Just one look at the Red River told the whole story – the lifeline of the northern delta had reached its lowest level since records began in 1902. At some parts of the river, the water level stood at just 70cm.

An extended drought in Vietnam has also caused water levels in the Mekong Delta to drop to their lowest points in nearly 20 years. Tens of millions of people depend on the two river basins for farming, fishing and transportation. Needless to say this drought has alarm bells ringing loud and clear.

…According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)’s Water Resources Department, this year, nearly 80,000 of the total 630,000 hectares of arable land in the north of Vietnam is at risk from this prolonged drought and more than 5,700 hectares will be forced to shift to other crops in need of less water.

Nguyen Lan Chau, vice director of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment’s National Center for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting (NCHF), ascribed the scarcity of rains since last September to a persistent decrease in the water levels of all rivers in northern Vietnam and to forest fires in provinces nationwide.

….According to the NCHF, the return of El Niño, the cyclical warming pattern, is the real culprit causing Vietnam’s long lasting drought, which will continue in the coming month. Even this summer, when rainfall often increases every year, rainfall will decrease.

….“Such a long-lasting drought is quite different from previous years,” says Do Thanh Hai, also from MARD’s Forest Protection Department. “Dry weather and high temperatures are coinciding with the time farmers burn their fields to prepare for cultivation, which has created a very high risk for forest fire.”…

Long Biên Bridge in Hanoi, Vietnam, looking towards the city centre from a rural island in the river. Shot by Kelisi, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Rural banks offer loan relief for El Niño stricken farmers

Jimmy Calapati in Malaya Business Insight (Philippines): Due to the adverse effects of the prolonged dry spell on farmlands and fishponds, the Rural Bankers Association of the Philippines (RBAP) yesterday said its members are stepping in to give embattled sectors a much-needed boost, including loan relief and additional financing.

"Our bank members are ready to provide assistance in the form of loan re-scheduling for farmers affected by El Nino," RBAP president Joseph Omar Andaya said. For small and medium enterprises, rural banks are ready to provide loans for the purchase of water pumps and generators in Mindanao which has been severely hit by drought and brownouts, Andaya said. Andaya said rural banks are offering micro insurance packages to farmers and SMes.

Andaya said that RBAP has been very supportive of the development of small and medium enterprises in rural areas, providing over P8 billion in loans to over 800,000 micro-entrepreneurs. For the whole agri-agra sector, rural banks have provided a total of P35.5 billion in loans over the years.

Andaya said now is the time to seriously formulate measures to mitigate the effects of climate change. "This is a global problem. As the prolonged heat wave continues to drain the country’s agri-agra production, we can’t afford to sit back and just accept the fate that’s handed to us. We have to act," said Andaya.

"Now, more than ever, farmers and fisher folks need us. This is a period of crisis. We have to keep the wheels of economic development in the countryside turning," he said. "In all likelihood, it would get worse before it gets better. It’s no longer a question of thriving, but an issue of survival. But, looking at the really big picture, the country’s main food supply is at stake here. We have to continue overcoming these natural obstacles and keep plugging the holes," he said….

Rice in Ifugao ready to be harvested, shot by BritandBeyonce , Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Food security warnings in the Philippines over El Niño

IRIN: Warnings have been raised over food security in the Philippines as the El Niño phenomenon wreaks havoc across vast agricultural areas, leaving staple crops such as rice dying in parched earth, officials say. The cost of crop damage has topped US$239 million since the phenomenon started a heat wave across much of northern Luzon Island and parts of the central Visayas region in late December, said the Department of Agriculture in a recent report by its special task force on El Niño.

Some 14 provinces have been affected, with the brunt of the crisis borne by the agricultural provinces of Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Cagayan and Isabela, where irrigation has dried up. The El Niño drought is compounding problems for an already bleak agricultural sector recovering from devastation wrought last year by two powerful storms, Ketsana and Parma, that pummelled Luzon, officials say.

To stave off a potential shortfall in rice supply, the agriculture department has said it may import some three million metric tonnes of rice this year. Gary Olivar, spokesman for Philippines President Gloria Arroyo, confirmed that the government had entered into import contracts for rice as a "short-term alternative".

"There are no long-term food shortage effects from a short-term phenomenon like El Niño, but we are preparing for its more frequent recurrence due to global warming by expanding our water supply sources, exploring dry weather cultivation methods, as well as similar other policies," Olivar told IRIN….

Satellite view of the Philippines

Improved near-real-time tracking of 2010 El Niño reveals warming coastal water, thinning marine populations

Scripps News (from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography): The ongoing El Niño of 2010 is affecting north Pacific Ocean ecosystems in ways that could affect the West Coast fishing industry, according to scientists at NOAA and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego. Researchers with the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) at Scripps and NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center report a stronger than normal northward movement of warm water up the Southern California coast, a high sea-level event in January and low abundances of plankton and pelagic fish - all conditions consistent with El Niño.

Sea surface temperatures along the entire West Coast are 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius (0.9 to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than normal and at points off Southern California are as much as 1.6 degrees Celsius (2.9 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than normal. The most unusually high temperatures were mapped around Catalina and San Clemente islands. While strong winter storms caused an increase in coastal sea levels, scientists are investigating whether the higher sea levels are primarily a result of El Niño, a cyclical phenomenon characterized by warming eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean waters.

"Based on our previous experience of El Niño in California, it is likely to reduce ocean production below normal, with possible effects extending to breeding failure of seabirds, and much lower catches in the market squid fishery," said Sam McClatchie, a fisheries oceanographer at NOAA's Southwest Fisheries. "However, predictions are never certain, and CalCOFI and NOAA ocean-observing systems will continue to provide essential monitoring of the situation."

CalCOFI CTD seawater sampling such as this is augmented by data from satellites, research buoys and robotic gliders to track the physical and biological response to El Niño. A combination of satellite remote sensing and field measurements is offering scientists a broader view of the evolution of this El Niño that was not available during previous El Niños, which were especially strong in 1982-83 and 1997-98. Internet technology aboard CalCOFI research vessels is delivering that information faster.

"You can post data the same day it's collected," said CalCOFI information manager Jim Wilkinson of Scripps Oceanography. "It used to take six months to work up some of the data and interpret it." NOAA Southwest Fisheries oceanographer Frank Schwing said scientists' analytical tools provide better ways to assess the strength of anomalies such as warming that are associated with El Niño….

Map of sea surface temperature off the west coast of North America from the Scripps Institute's website

'We need a strategy for El Niño'

Dulce Sanchez in the The Philippine Star: The head of an international crop research institute is calling on the Philippines and other countries affected by drought to “go on a war footing” to cope with the El Niño weather phenomenon and climate change. Dr. William Dar, director general of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), said several crises – aside from drought – confront global agriculture today.

“Warming temperatures, floods, increasing land degradation, rising food prices, zooming energy demand and population explosion are creating extreme challenges to feed the world. We can avert this potential ‘climaggedon’ through a strong political will and collective action by the global community,” he said. Dar said there is a need for a long-term strategy to deal with climate change and El Niño rather than simply taking reactive measures.

He said there is a need for institutional mechanisms to develop and implement a strategy of “adaptation and mitigation for our farmers to surmount climate change and the continuing onslaught of El Niño.” Dar said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pag-asa) estimates that there would be a 40 to 60 percent reduction in rainfall that will last until June, and the Department of Agriculture projects that this could cut rice production by 816,372 tons worth P12.24 billion.

He also said the areas hardest hit by the drought are Cagayan and Isabela which are major producers of rice. He added that the production of other crops like corn, sugar cane, vegetables and other agricultural products will also be severely affected....

Banaue rice terraces in the Philippines, where traditional landraces have been grown for thousands of years. From McCouch S: Diversifying Selection in Plant Breeding. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e347. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.0020347. This image was published in a Public Library of Science journal. Their website states that the content of all PLoS journals is published under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 license.

El Niño throws a tantrum in Peru

Milagros Salazar in IPS via Tierramérica, from Lima: Peru's lack of disaster prevention policies and measures, combined with climate imbalances in South America, have led to the loss of dozens of lives and thousands of homes in this Andean country in the last few months. Excessive rains have caused damages in northern Peru, but the worst precipitation occurred in Cuzco, in the south, where a month's worth of rain fell in just three days.

…The changes in the climate are affecting the entire Andean region of South America…The region is seeing the effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a cyclical phenomenon in which the surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific rise and have repercussions on weather around the world as the currents flow west to east. Most experts agree that the presence of ENSO triggers rainfall along the northern coast of Peru, and drought in the country's southern highlands area.

But, judging from El Niño's previous cycles, such as 1997-1998, it can also cause intense rains over short periods in Peru's southern Andean mountains, an area that otherwise tends toward drought, disaster prevention expert Pedro Ferradas, of the international technical aid group Practical Solutions ITDG, told Tierramérica.

The authorities have taken action on the north coast, but did not do enough for the southern highlands area, according to Ferradas. Although the rainy season in the Andes runs from December to April, what was surprising was the "ferocity" of the rain in just a few days, he said.

…Cuzco has experienced major urban sprawl in recent years, "and people have built homes in high-risk areas," a problem compounded by lack of urban planning and disaster mitigation work, Oxfam expert Cano told Tierramérica. As a result of decentralisation, local and regional governments are responsible for natural disaster prevention measures and emergency services….

Rio apurimac.jpgThe Rio Apurimac in a valley, shot by Bryan Dougherty, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license

In Texas, drought officially over, though northern drought continues

Environment News Service: One of the worst droughts in Texas history has officially ended, according to figures from Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, who also serves as a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University. Nielsen-Gammon says that the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Friday, shows none of the state in drought. Only a few small patches of the state, near the Coastal Bend and along the Texas-Mexico border, are still depicted as abnormally dry.

"The drought began in fall 2007, as an unusually wet year for Texas suddenly turned dry," he said. "The lack of rainfall led to the first drought impacts in late fall and winter of 2007-2008. In the summer of 2008 much of the state experienced drought relief with two tropical cyclones, Dolly and Ike, but core areas of the drought in south-central and southern Texas missed out on much of the tropical rainfall," Nielsen-Gammon recounted.

"A second straight dry winter followed, and while spring rains shrunk the area of drought in Texas considerably, core areas of the drought continued to degrade."

…Texans can thank El Nino conditions that warmed the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, said Nielsen-Gammon. "In an El Nino, with warm east Pacific sea surface temperatures, winters tend to be wet, while the opposite happens during a La Nina," he explained. "Two consecutive La Nina winters helped make this drought particularly severe, while the current El Nino conditions have helped to end the drought."….

Some west Texas scenery, shot by Geoemrick, Wikimedia Commons

El Nino hurting drought-struck Philippine farms

Terra Daily via Agence France-Presse: The Philippines said Thursday that its farming industry could lose about 433 million dollars this year due a drought caused by the El Nino atmospheric phenomenon. The damage estimates range from eight to 20 billion pesos (173 to 433 million dollars), depending on whether El Nino will cause a prolonged dry spell or a short one, said agricultural undersecretary Joel Rudinas.

Local governments have already reported that as much as a billion pesos in rice and about 1.4 billion pesos in corn may have been lost due to the drought that is scorching farms across the Southeast Asian archipelago, he said. "We are still evaluating if the crops cannot be saved or if the yield will just be lower," he told AFP.

El Nino is an occasional seasonal warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that upsets normal weather patterns from the western seaboard of Latin America to east Africa, and has caused droughts in the Philippines before.

The government is trying to alleviate the effects of the drought by helping farmers switch to crops that are less dependent on water than rice, such as vegetables and fruits….

A farm on Negros, in the Philippines, shot by Jesse Gardner, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license

Cold weather kills off Florida wildlife

Suzanne Goldenberg in the Guardian (UK): Comatose iguanas have been dropping from the trees and pythons have frozen to death in their tracks in Florida's unusually harsh winter, wildlife officials said today. Parts of the Sunshine State saw their second snowfall of the season this weekend, with the extended cold spells killing off a host of tropical intruders, including iguanas, Burmese and African pythons and invasive fish.

State wildlife officials said more than half of the green iguanas, which are native to South America, could have been killed off. "The iguanas up in the trees just got so cold, they kind of went very, very sluggish, and just fell down," said Jenny Tinnell, a biologist with Florida's Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

Residents of south Florida, who have discovered the animals on their patios, have tried to warm them back to life. Local newspapers, meanwhile, have been warning homeowners not to let their dogs gnaw on iguana corpses, which may be poisonous….

Iguana iguana seen in Fern Forest, Florida. This lizard was seen in the wild altough it is not a native species in the area. Shot by Korali, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative CommonsAttribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Floods prompt Bolivia emergency

BBC: Bolivian President Evo Morales has declared a state of emergency in areas of the country, as heavy rains and floods affect some 24,000 families. The worst-hit areas are La Paz, Santa Cruz, Cochabamba, Chuquisaca and Beni. The flooding is expected to get worse as more rain is forecast.

Rivers have broken their banks and overflowed. There have been mudslides. Meanwhile rescuers in Peru renewed efforts to evacuate tourists trapped near the Inca site of Machu Picchu. Rain and mudslides there have severed road and rail links in the region.

However, a break in the weather has now allowed the authorities to send in helicopters to ferry out several thousand tourists. The operation is expected to end by the weekend….The rains, which have swept away crops, livestock and communication lines, are blamed on the El Nino weather phenomenon which results in severe weather conditions across the Asia-Pacific region and beyond….

The resurgence of El Niño means that 2010 could yet be the hottest year on record

Robin McKie in the Guardian (UK): …Britain may be shivering, the Met Office may have issued emergency weather warnings for the entire country and hundreds of trains and flights may have been cancelled, but our future is destined to be a hot and sticky one. And we are likely to feel the consequences sooner rather than later.

It is a point stressed by Doug Smith, a climate expert at the Met Office. "The hottest year on record was 1998 and some people have argued that if global warming is really taking place, we should have had an even warmer year since then. We haven't, I admit. And yes, the weather is absolutely terrible at present. However, I am sure things will change – and we won't have to wait long either."

Smith and other meteorologists say that for the past few years, temperatures have been prevented from soaring even higher than they did in 1998 thanks to one key factor: the El Niño warming of the Pacific. This phenomenon occurs at irregular intervals of between two and seven years and can last for months, pumping vast amounts of heat into the atmosphere. A strong El Niño occurred in 1998 and played a key role in heating the world to a record-breaking level. (El Niño is Spanish for "the boy", a reference to the birth of Christ, which relates to the fact that this warming period typically begins around Christmas.)

In recent years, however, the Pacific has cooled thanks to a corresponding ocean phenomenon, known as La Niña (Spanish for "the girl"). It depresses sea surface temperatures and has played a key role in limiting global warming since the turn of the century. As a result, global temperatures have been prevented from rising above their 1998 record level. That cooling has now stopped, however, and a new El Niño warming period has just started in the Pacific.

"If that keeps up for the next few months, it will result in a great deal of heat being pumped into the atmosphere," added Smith. "The signs are that it will. If so, our computer models indicate that this year is more likely than not to be the hottest on record. Even if it isn't, I am quite sure a record breaker will still occur in the next few years."….

During warm ENSO episodes the normal patterns of tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation become disrupted. Image from NOAA

Slow Atlantic hurricane season comes to a close

NOAA: The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends today [November 30,] marking the close of a season with the fewest named storms and hurricanes since 1997 thanks, in part, to El Niño. Nine named storms formed this year, including three hurricanes, two of which were major hurricanes at Category 3 strength or higher. These numbers fall within the ranges predicted in NOAA’s mid-season outlook issued in August, which called for seven to 11 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes. An average season has 11 named storms and six hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

“The reduced activity was expected and reflects the development of El Niño during the summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “El Niño produced strong wind shear across the Caribbean Sea and western tropical Atlantic, which resulted in fewer and shorter-lived storms compared to some recent very active seasons.”

Two systems, Claudette and Ida, brought tropical storm force winds to the U.S. mainland. For the first time in three years, no hurricanes hit the U.S. There were 38 hurricane hunter aircraft reconnaissance missions flown by NOAA and the U.S. Air Force over the Atlantic Basin this year compared to 169 in 2008 – another indication of a less active season.

“El Niño is expected to reach peak strength this winter, and will likely continue into the spring. It is far too early to say whether El Niño will be present next summer,” added Bell. NOAA will issue its initial 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook in May, prior to the official start of the season on June 1….

On August 16, tropical storms Ana, Bill and Claudette on August 16, 2009 during the Atlantic Hurricane season. Image Credit - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Goes East satellite

Climate change may weaken El Niño's hurricane buffering effect

Curtis Morgan in the Miami Herald: Despite underwater mortgages, failed Ponzi schemes and jailed politicians, the beleaguered citizenry of South Florida does have a few things to be thankful for this holiday season. … Hurricane season is about to end, meekly.

….Unfortunately, experts see this year's quieter-than-normal hurricane season, which officially ends Monday, as a fortunate break owed largely to the weather pattern known as El Niño. “Unless we have a special event like El Niño, we still are in a period where we are going to have active seasons,'' said James Franklin, chief of hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.”

If that's not enough to dull the relief of dodging another tropical bullet, a new study co-authored by a University of Miami scientist suggests climate change may sap the strength when El Niños form in the future -- at least some of the time.

An El Niño occurs periodically when ocean temperatures rise in the eastern Pacific Ocean. That creates an atmospheric ripple effect reaching around the globe in the form of strong upper level wind shear that can weaken and shred tropical cyclones as they move across the Atlantic Ocean. Shear took its toll on virtually every storm this year, from Ana to Ida.

But Ben Kirtman, a professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at UM's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Studies, said climate data indicates that El Niño may be forming more frequently in the central Pacific, a 4,000-mile move to the west that could rob its ``protective shield'' of power. “When it is shifted further to the east, it has a nice effect on the shear that tends to suppress our hurricanes,'' Kirtman said. ``When El Niño happens to shift further to the west, we might expect less of an influence.''….

…But at least El Niño maintained its clout this year. The average six-month hurricane season in the Atlantic basin produces 10 named storms and six hurricanes, two of them major. This year's total: nine named storms and only three hurricanes, with Bill and Fred both reaching major Category Three-plus strength of 111-mph winds or higher….

The tracks of pre-1900 hurricanes that cross Florida