Flash flood risks increase as storm peak downpours intensify

EurekAlert via the University of New South Wales: Patterns of peak rainfall during storms will intensify as the climate changes and temperatures warm, leading to increased flash flood risks in Australia's urban catchments, new UNSW Australia research suggests.

Civil engineers from the UNSW Water Research Centre have analysed close to 40,000 storms across Australia spanning 30 years and have found warming temperatures are dramatically disrupting rainfall patterns, even within storm events.

Essentially, the most intense downpours are getting more extreme at warmer temperatures, dumping larger volumes of water over less time, while the least intense periods of precipitation are getting weaker. If this trend continues with future warming, the risk of flooding due to short-term extreme bursts of rainfall could increase even if the overall volume of rain during storms remains the same. The findings were published today in the journal Nature Geoscience.

"These more intense patterns are leading to more destructive storms, which can significantly influence the severity of flood flows," says lead author and PhD candidate Conrad Wasko, from the UNSW School of Civil and Environmental Engineering. "The climate zones we studied in Australia are representative of most global climates, so it's very likely these same trends will be observed around the world."

Previous studies have looked at rainfall volumes over the total duration of storms, but this latest UNSW study is the first to look at temporal rainfall patterns within storms. Australian Bureau of Meteorology data from 79 locations across the country were used instead of computer simulations....

Photo by Shootthedevgru,Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Australia is losing millions of dollars in terms of economic productivity because of heat and climate change

Guneet Bhatia in the International Business Times: A recent study has revealed that the global heat and increase in temperature has led to a loss of almost US$6.2 billion or A$7.92 billion in terms of productivity of the workers during the financial year 2013-14. In addition, the scientists have warned that the loss could even become worse as Earth continues to further become warm.

A team of international researchers conducted the study on a group of working Australian, aged between 18 and 65. Out of the 1,726 respondents, nearly two-third admitted that the heat has made them less productive in the previous year, while seven percent confessed that they had been absent from work at least for one day during the period. According to the calculation performed by the researchers to study the economic impact of heat, the absenteeism from work and decline in performance or low productivity costs around US$655 per person.

"This represents an annual economic burden of around US$6.2 billion for the Australian workforce. This amounts to 0.33 to 0.47% of Australia's GDP," said the research team.

According to the authors, the study findings "suggest that adaptation measures to reduce heat effects should be adopted widely if severe economic impacts from labour productivity loss are to be avoided if heat waves become as frequent as predicted." The study was particularly conducted during the warmest and the third warmest years in the Australian history—2013 and 2014, respectively...

Cockatoo Island in Sydney, shot by Greg O'Beirne, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Super storm lashes Australian east coast for third day

Reuters: A cyclonic storm lashed Australia's east coast for a third day on Wednesday, causing millions of dollars of damage to property and infrastructure in Sydney and other cities. Three people have been killed in the wild weather, which has washed away houses, cut power to more than 200,000 homes and stranded a cruise ship off the coast in mountainous seas.

The Bureau of Meteorology warned that a second storm cell was gathering off the coast north of Sydney, with gale force winds of up to 100 km per hour (62 miles per hour) and heavy winds lashing the coast.

The storm caused havoc in Sydney, felling trees, downing power lines and knocking out traffic lights. Delayed and canceled transport services due to flooding and strong winds left many commuters stranded in the wet.

New South Wales State Premier Mike Baird urged Sydneysiders to delay unnecessary travel and avoid traveling during peak times if possible. "There is no doubt this is a very severe storm event, indeed it is a once in 10-year event," Baird told reporters.

The Insurance Council of Australia said more than 7,500 insurance claims had been lodged. NSW State Emergency Service deputy commissioner Steve Pearce said damage costs were already in the millions and were expected to rise....

Sydney Harbor in better weather, shot by Andy, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license

Australia hit by tropical cylone double whammy

Michael Slezak in New Scientist: It was a shocking double blow. Australia is picking itself back up after being battered simultaneously by two severe tropical cyclones last week, in what meteorologists are saying is a first for the country. One of these appears to be the southern-most cyclone of such a strong intensity to make landfall, giving Australians a taste of what climate change is expected to bring.

Tropical cyclone Marcia was categorised in the highest possible category – category five – when it made landfall in Queensland on Friday and brought wind gusts of up to 285 kilometres per hour. On the same day, cyclone Lam, a category four cyclone, made landfall in the Northern Territory, knocking out a wind station with gusts up to 260 kilometres per hour.

Marcia is estimated to have damaged 1500 homes in Queensland while Lam pummelled through north Arnhem Land, leaving indigenous Australian communities there without power, water or sewerage.

"It is the first time that we've seen two severe – that's category three or above – cyclones making landfall within 24 hours," says Andrew Tupper, head of the National Operations Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne, Australia....

NASA image of Cyclone Marcia over Queensland, February 20, 2015

Australia races to stabilize wildfires as catastrophe declared

Michael Heath at Bloomberg News: Crews in South Australia are racing to stabilize wildfires and protect homes as hot winds forecast to blow in from the desert later this week threaten to create catastrophic conditions. State Premier Jay Weatherill said firefighters would use planes from a neighboring state in an effort to gain control of the blaze that has destroyed a dozen homes. The Country Fire Service warned the temperature may reach 38 degrees Celsius (100 Fahrenheit) on Jan. 7 as winds switch from the northwest, while the Insurance Council of Australia declared a catastrophe.

“We are hoping to use very large air tankers that come from Victoria to dump about 11 really large loads on the fire front,” Weatherill said. “That will be so important for us to get control of this fire before those conditions worsen.”

The blazes have left 22 people injured and destroyed the biggest stretch of bush since 1983, when 75 people in South Australia and neighboring Victoria died in what became known as the Ash Wednesday fires. Australia’s hot, dry climate makes wildfires a significant risk throughout the southern hemisphere’s summer.

Brenton Eden of the CFS said large tracts within the 12,000 hectare fire ground that haven’t burnt were his main concern, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported. “We now need to concentrate on making sure in the next three to four days that there are no ember attacks into those areas, that there are no trees falling over into those areas,” the ABC cited him as saying. “Because the last thing we want to see is new fires burning inside the perimeter of the current fire and the potential to lose houses in there.”...

A scene from firefighters at a 2003 blaze in Australia, shot by Graham Tidy/The Canberra Times photographer, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Green Climate Fund hits $10 billion goal, after Australia surprise

Alister Doyle and Megan Rowling at Trust.org via Reuters: A new Green Climate Fund that aims to help poor nations cope with global warming reached a U.N. goal of $10 billion on Tuesday at global climate talks in Lima, helped by a surprise donation from Australia.

Several of the 190 nations at the meeting welcomed the cash from both Australia and Belgium, but China said rich countries were not working fast enough to meet a broader goal of providing $100 billion a year by 2020 from public and private sources to help the poor cope. "We've got above one of the psychologically important milestones of more than $10 billion," Hela Cheikhrouhou, head of the Fund, told Reuters. Pledges by 24 nations now total $10.14 billion, she said.

Environment ministers are meeting in Lima from Dec. 1-12 to work on elements of a draft deal to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Finance is a key part of the deal, due to be agreed in Paris in late 2015, to help developing nations take part. Australia, which faced criticisms by developing nations after it did not make a pledge at a donors' meeting last month, pledged A$200 million ($166 million) and Belgium 51.6 million euros ($64 million)....

Image by Svilen.milev, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported licens

Australia's drying climate caused by greenhouse gases, study finds

Click Green (UK): US Government scientists have developed a new high-resolution climate model that shows southwestern Australia's long-term decline in fall and winter rainfall is caused by increases in manmade greenhouse gas emissions and ozone depletion.

"This new high-resolution climate model is able to simulate regional-scale precipitation with considerably improved accuracy compared to previous generation models," said Tom Delworth, a research scientist at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., who helped develop the new model and is co-author of the research published today.  "This model is a major step forward in our effort to improve the prediction of regional climate change, particularly involving water resources."

NOAA researchers conducted several climate simulations using this global climate model to study long-term changes in rainfall in various regions across the globe. One of the most striking signals of change emerged over Australia, where a long-term decline in fall and winter rainfall has been observed over parts of southern Australia.

Simulating natural and manmade climate drivers, scientists showed that the decline in rainfall is primarily a response to manmade increases in greenhouse gases as well as a thinning of the ozone caused by manmade aerosol emissions.  Several natural causes were tested with the model, including volcano eruptions and changes in the sun's radiation. But none of these natural climate drivers reproduced the long-term observed drying, indicating this trend is due to human activity.

Southern Australia's decline in rainfall began around 1970 and has increased over the last four decades. The model projects a continued decline in winter rainfall throughout the rest of the 21st century, with significant implications for regional water resources. The drying is most severe over southwest Australia where the model forecasts a 40 percent decline in average rainfall by the late 21st century....

In the Wheatlands, Australia, shot by Phillip Capper, Wikimedia Commons via Fllickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Changing Antarctic winds create new sea level threat

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Research (Australia): New research shows projected changes in the winds circling the Antarctic may accelerate global sea level rise significantly more than previously estimated.

Changes to Antarctic winds have already been linked to southern Australia’s drying climate but now it appears they may also have a profound impact on warming ocean temperatures under the ice shelves along the coastline of West and East Antarctic.

 “When we included projected Antarctic wind shifts in a detailed global ocean model, we found water up to 4°C warmer than current temperatures rose up to meet the base of the Antarctic ice shelves,” said lead author Dr Paul Spence from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS).

 “The sub-surface warming revealed in this research is on average twice as large as previously estimated with almost all of coastal Antarctica affected. This relatively warm water provides a huge reservoir of melt potential right near the grounding lines of ice shelves around Antarctica. It could lead to a massive increase in the rate of ice sheet melt, with direct consequences for global sea level rise.”

Prior to this research by Dr Spence and colleagues from Australian National University and the University of New South Wales, most sea level rise studies focused on the rate of ice shelf melting due to the general warming of the ocean over large areas.

Using super computers at Australia’s National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) Facility the researchers were able to examine the impacts of changing winds on currents down to 700m around the coastline in greater detail than ever before.

Previous global models did not adequately capture these currents and the structure of water temperatures at these depths. Unexpectedly, this more detailed approach suggests changes in Antarctic coastal winds due to climate change and their impact on coastal currents could be even more important on melting of the ice shelves than the broader warming of the ocean....

Spring on the Antarctic Peninsula, NASA image

Consider water use in climate change policies, advise Australian researchers

Springer Select (a press release from Springer): There’s more to trying to slow down climate change than just cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Technology, policies or plans that aim to do so should also take environmental factors such as water usage into account. A more integrated approach might make some options considerably more attractive than others, especially when implemented in arid countries such as Australia, advise Philip Wallis of Monash University in Australia and colleagues, in an article in Springer’s journal Climatic Change.

The researchers considered the example of Australia to show how water usage influences the appeal of certain preferred mitigation options. They analyzed 74 options that were ranked in the influential “Low Carbon Growth Plan for Australia” in 2010, and together could help Australia cut its 2000 emission levels by 25 percent by 2020.

The options varied considerably as to how much water each one uses. Energy efficiency measures were found to reduce water consumption, as do measures in the power sector generally. Renewable options such as solar thermal power only moderately impact water consumption. Further reductions are possible by tapping into existing power-related water supplies or using air or salt-water cooling. Wind power, biogas, solar photovoltaics, energy efficiency and operational improvements to existing power sources can reduce water demand by offsetting the water used to cool thermal power generation. This could help save nearly 100 Mmᶾ of water in Australia annually by 2
020. Wallis believes the technologies and locations used for renewable energy should appropriately reflect water constraints.

Land-based mitigation measures such as “carbon farming” for carbon credits and the suggested reforestation of land use the most water. This is likely to influence catchment water yields, depending on where planting takes place. Although such plantings can also help reduce salinity, erosion, and flooding, the researchers believe some of these endeavors should be reconsidered, either in the scale of plantings, their location, or the carbon price required for these to be cost effective.

The reconfiguring of Australian cities towards water-efficient and low-energy systems represents both a significant challenge and opportunity. Energy is a substantial operational cost in the water industry, especially since the increased use of inter-basin water transfers and desalination plants. Urban water management indirectly influences 13 percent of electricity use plus 18 percent of Australia’s natural gas usage. The water supply and waste-water sectors can however ensure savings by moving towards higher energy efficiency by using, for example, variable-speed water pumps and smart water meters, and renewable energy options such as small-scale hydroelectric plants. Demand management programs targeting hot water and the diversion or localized treatment of different types of waste-water should also be considered.

“This integrated analysis significantly changes the attractiveness of some mitigation options, compared to cases where water impacts are not considered,” believes Wallis. “This Australian case shows that mitigation measures that carry water co-benefits, especially energy efficiency, ought to be pursued.”...

Forecasting temperature extremes with ozone

Jennifer Chu at MIT News: For the past two summers, Australians have sweated through record heat waves, with thermometers climbing as high as 118 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the country. In January, officials were forced to halt tennis matches during the Australian Open due to extreme heat — a decision made following several days of sizzling temperatures.

Now MIT researchers have found that the intensity of summer temperatures in Australia and elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere may be better predicted as early as the previous spring by an unlikely indicator: ozone.

From their study, published in the Journal of Climate, the scientists found that as the springtime ozone hole’s severity varies from year to year, the temperatures in Australia and southern regio
ns of Africa and South America reveal correlations: Years with higher springtime ozone experience hotter summers, and vice versa.

The results suggest that ozone levels may help meteorologists predict the severity of summertime temperatures months in advance.

“No one has actually looked at the variation of ozone as a way to forecast or predict the climate or the next summer’s temperature,” says lead author Justin Bandoro, a graduate student in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences. “This could be especially important for farmers, and for areas like southeastern Australia, where most of that nation’s population resides.”...

Dryland ecosystems emerge as driver in global carbon cycle

University of Montana News Service: Dryland ecosystems, which include deserts to dry-shrublands, play a more important role in the global carbon cycle than previously thought. In fact, they have emerged as one of its drivers, says Montana State University faculty member Ben Poulter.

Surprised by the discovery, Poulter and his collaborators explained their findings in Nature. At the same time, they urged global ecologists to include the emerging role of dryland ecosystems in their research. Nature is a weekly international journal that publishes peer-reviewed research in all fields of science and technology.

"Our study found that natural events in Australia were largely responsible for this anomaly," Poulter said. "La Nina-driven rainfall during 2010 and 2011, as well as the 30-year greening up of its deserts and other drylands contributed to significant changes across the globe.”

...He realized ... that the world’s land carbon sink in 2011 seemed to be absorbing an unusually large amount of carbon, Poulter said. Carbon dioxide moves constantly between land, oceans, vegetation and the atmosphere. When one of those absorbs more carbon dioxide than it releases, it’s referred to as a carbon sink.

Poulter and his collaborators investigated the phenomena with a variety of data sets and modeling approaches. They eventually discovered surprising interactions between climate extremes and desert greening that increased in importance over the past 30 years.  Further study showed that the dryland systems in the Southern Hemisphere, specifically Australia, had particularly high productivity in response to increased La Nina-phase rainfall.

“What surprised us was that no analogous biosphere response to similar climatic extremes existed in the past 30 years, prompting us to explore whether documented dryland-greening trends were responsible for changes in the carbon cycle dynamics,” said Philippe Ciais, co-author and senior scientist at LSCE.

...“Dryland systems have high rates of carbon turnover compared to other biomes,” Ciais said. “We can expect the carbon to be quickly respired or consumed in wildfires, already partly reflected by the high atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate in 2012.”...

A kangaroo warning sign on Stuart Highway in Northern Territory, Australia, shot by Jpp, Wikimedia Commons, under Creative Commons 3.0 license

Australian environmentalists welcome bank wariness on reef port

PhysOrg: Environmentalists on Saturday welcomed Deutsche Bank's reluctance to invest in a major port expansion near Australia's Great Barrier Reef, saying it reflected global concern about the project. Australia gave the green light to the major coal port expansion for India's Adani Group at Abbot Point on the Great Barrier Reef coast last year subject to strict environmental conditions.

But conservationists slammed the approval, warning it would hasten the natural wonder's demise given it is under pressure from climate change, land-based pollution and crown-of-thorn starfish outbreaks. At its annual general meeting in Europe on Friday, Deutsche Bank said its policy for dealing with activities in or near World Heritage Sites ruled it out of investing in Abbot Point.

"Deutsche Bank does not support activities when the government and UNESCO do not agree that the planned activities do not place the exceptional universal value of the site at risk," the bank said. "As we have seen, there is currently no consensus between UNESCO and the Australian government regarding the expansion of Abbot Point in the vicinity of the Great Barrier Reef. Our policy requires such a consensus at the least. We therefore would not consider applications for the financing of an expansion any further."

UNESCO has stated concerns about coastal development proposed in the region including port and coal operations, with the body expected to discuss the issue at a meeting in June.

The Australian Marine Conservation Society, which is campaigning against the port expansion, welcomed Deutsche Bank's stance, which it said showed global concern about plans to "industrialise the coastline of the Great Barrier Reef"...

Helicopter view of the Great Barrier Reef, shot by Nickj, Wikimedia Commons, licenseed under Creative Commons 3.0 

Cyclone warning lifted on Australia's Barrier Reef coast

Terra Daily via AFP: Cyclone Ita rolled out into the Coral Sea on Monday leaving thousands of homes without power and floods down Australia's Barrier Reef coast, officials said, as danger warnings were lifted. Downgraded from a category four to a category one storm after making landfall late Friday, Ita swept off the coast with gales and torrential rain trailing in its wake.

Electricity was slowly being restored to some 16,000 homes that were cut off while floods closed local roads, emergency officials said. No deaths or major destruction were reported. The Bureau of Meteorology lifted the last cyclone warning south of Mackay and north of Rockhampton on Monday morning and Ita was expected to be further downgraded to a low pressure system during the day.

"Tropical Cyclone Ita is expected to maintain a southeast track as it moves offshore away from the Queensland coast," the latest bulletin said.

Further north in Cooktown, which bore the brunt of the storm, water was rationed to drinking and "minimal" sanitation only, with severe shortages due to storm damage.

Queensland premier Campbell Newman inspected the damage in Cooktown on Sunday, where four buildings were destroyed and another 50 were damaged by the storm. Banana plantations in the region were flattened....

On April 11, 2014, Ita was a Severe Tropical Storm. Via NASA

Closely-watched GM farm case begins in Australia

Seed Daily via AFP: An Australian farmer who lost his organic produce licence has taken his neighbour to court over contamination from his genetically modified canola crop in a closely-watched test case. Steve Marsh's case against his neighbour Michael Baxter began in Western Australia's Supreme Court on Monday, seeking damages and a permanent injunction to protect his farm from future contamination.

Marsh lost organic certification on 70 percent of his land in 2010 after swathes and seed from Baxter's farm blew onto his property, resulting in "great financial hardship and an uncertain future". His legal team said the case could set an important benchmark on farming.

"As far as we know, this is the first court case of its type anywhere in the world. It will test the legal rights of farmers to choose how and what they farm on their land," said lawyer Mark Walter.

"The case is about freedom of choice, for both farmers and for consumers. It is important that farmers retain their rights to farm GM-free food as this in turn will protect consumers' ability to purchase GM-free food."

Baxter's defence team argues that Marsh's farm, where oats and other grains are grown and sheep graze, cannot be directly affected by the GM canola because he does not grow canola himself....

Making hay in the 1930s in Australia

New maps reveal locations of species at risk as climate changes

A press release from CSIRO: In research published today in the journal Nature, CSIRO and an international team of scientists revealed global maps showing how fast and in which direction local climates are shifting. This new study points to a simpler way of looking at climatic changes and their likely effects on biodiversity.

As climate change unfolds over the next century, plants and animals will need to adapt or shift locations to track their ideal climate. “The maps show areas where plants and animals may struggle to find a new home in a changing climate and provide crucial information for targeting conservation efforts,” CSIRO's Dr Elvira Poloczanska said.

The study analysed 50 years of sea surface and land temperature data (1960-2009) and also investigated two future scenarios for marine environments (‘business as usual’ and a 1.75°C temperature increase). The new maps show where new thermal environments are being generated and where existing environments may disappear.

“The maps show us how fast and in which direction temperatures are shifting, and where climate migrants following them may hit barriers such as coastlines. Our work shows that climate migration is far more complex than a simple shift towards t
he poles,” ecological geographer with the project Kristen Williams said.

“Across Australia, species are already experiencing warmer temperatures. In terrestrial habitats, species have started to seek relief by moving to higher elevations, or further south. However, some species of animals and plants cannot move large distances, and some not at all.”...

Speed and direction of climate shifts over the past 50 years in Australia.

More heatwave, more action required on climate change and adaptation

Takver in Sydney Indymedia (Australia): Much of south east Australia is again suffering a heatwave this week. The temperature reached 41.2C in M
elbourne on Tuesdayand is forecast to rise again over this weekend. Inland towns get no such reprieve from the heat, with the Bureau of Meteorology having a heatwave forecast in place.

In the first week of 2014 temperatures climbed towards 50C in a heatwave focussed on WA, Northern Territory, Queensland and NSW. It was so hot that thousands of bats fell from the trees from heat exhaustion.

The heat from Central Australia brought heatwave conditions across south east Australia, from the 13th January. Melbourne had four consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 41C, a new record for the city. The Victorian Premier Denis Napthine warned that the electricity grid was stretched to the limit and up to 100,000 people may lose power for a time.

Preliminary statistics are already being reported. Victorian Ambulance Service had a 700 per cent rise in number of call-outs for cardiac arrests when temperatures spiked at almost 44C during the heatwave. About 203 deaths were reported to the coroner, more than twice the average. Paramedics treated more than 500 people for heat exhaustion, and about 60 kids had to be rescued from locked cars, reported the ABC...

Deteriorating asphalt, shot by Bidgee, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Australia's drinking water at risk from extreme weather events

Space Daily via UPI: Australia's drinking water is at risk from extreme weather, a new study says. The study, commissioned by the United States-based Water Research Foundation, says flooding, prolonged rainfall, drought, cyclones and bush fires impact surface water quality. Such weather events, it says, are predicted to become more frequent and intense in many parts of Australia due to climate change.

"We need to focus on building resilience into our future supplies," said Stuart Khan, an associate professor of the school of civil and environmental engineering at the University of New South Wales, and lead author of the report, in a news release.

"This means designing systems that are more protected from the impacts of climate change and that have greater flexibility to respond to extreme weather events. This could be partially brought about through a diversification of water sources."

The report comes as Australia broke another heat wave record, with the temperature in Adelaide, the capital of South Australia, reaching 114.8 degrees Friday. Bush fires raged across the southeast last week, with more than 100 blazes in South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales....

A break away! This oil painting on canvas depicts a late 19th century Australian scene, in the Riverina district during a drought. A mob of sheep is being moved by drovers through a parched landscape in search of water and green pastures. Smelling water, the thirsty sheep stampede downhill towards a dam, as one drover tries desperately to turn them around and save them from being crushed and drowned. A second drover (on the left-hand side, almost hidden by the dust) and two dogs – one having just been knocked over by some sheep – are unable to help. The painting is in the collection of the Art Gallery of South Australia.

Australian wildfires rage out of control

Al-Jazeera.com: Dozens of wildfires were burning out of control in heatwave conditions across southern Australia, with at least one person confirmed dead.

Fire authorities on Friday said 68 fires were burning across Victoria state and another 16 were blazing across neighboring South Australia state. Both states have endured several days of temperatures exceeding 40C, with winds intensifying the fire risk as they gathered pace.

The Victoria police chief commissioner, Ken Lay, said on Friday that one person died at their home northwest of Melbourne, and that the death was "fire-related".

Residents in the region were advised to evacuate their homes, but several people decided to stay and protect their properties, said the Victoria fire commissioner, Craig Lapsley.

"They have a right to do so ... but they also take on that risk themselves," he said. "They risk the fact that these fires will be very intense and erratic this afternoon."

More than 400 heat exposure cases and 51 heart attacks have been reported in the state since Tuesday - a significant increase on normal figures. Fire conditions in Victoria are at their worst since 2009, when wildfires killed 173 people and destroyed more than 2,000 homes...

An October, 2013 fire in Lithgow, Australia, shot by Lithgowlights, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Australian Bureau of Meteorology nudges forecasted temperatures for heatwave even higher

Peter Hannam in the Age (Australia): A “classic heatwave set-up” will deliver the hottest run of temperatures for south-eastern Australia since just prior to the Black Saturday bushfires in 2009, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

While forest conditions are not as dry as the period prior to the major bushfires of February 2009 in Victoria, grasslands are parched and may pose some high fire risks, said senior bureau forecaster Terry Ryan.

The bureau raised Melbourne’s forecast maximums slightly for some days this week, just as the Australian Open tennis grand slam tournament gets under way. The city can expect a 35-degree maximum on Monday, with days of 41, 39, 41, and 40 to follow.

The city averages about 1.5 days a year of 40 degrees, so to have thr
ee in a single week is very unusual, Mr Terry said. The increase appears to be one signal of climate change, nudging temperatures higher, he said.

Since about 1998-99, “there’s been a lot more hot days”, Mr Ryan said, adding that the extra degree or so is turning 39s into 40s. The coming days may see only limited relief with sea-breezes arriving from the west potentially easing Tuesday’s heat – but only temporarily as the heat re-forms, he said. “The heat is never far away,” Mr Ryan said....

At the beach in Australia, shot by Alex Proimos, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license. 

Big weather events "getting worse"

Vivienne Nunis in Voice of Russia: With much of England battered by storms over Christmas, the New Year has brought little relief. This morning the Environment Agency forecast 21 areas would be hit by severe floods endangering life. As the day wore on that prediction was revised down to seven severe flood warnings in the Midlands, the South West and Wales. By Friday evening, flooding was still expected in around 130 locations across the UK.

...But the UK isn’t the only place dealing with extreme weather. Ireland has faced three major storms in just two weeks. On the other side of the Atlantic, CNN reported on Friday, 100 million people in 22 states were in the path of a snowstorm hitting Northeast America.

...Australia is a country well used to extreme weather, but the year just gone was one for the record books. Ned Wickoll, a journalist based in Sydney, said: “So 2013 has been the hottest year on record in Australia according to the Bureau of Meteorology and this has gone back all the way to 1910 when records began. Not only did we get the hottest January 7th the day on record, we got the hottest month and the hottest season. Of course now the Bureau has confirmed the hottest year on record. It’s been sweltering in all parts of Australia at various parts of 2013 and the Bureau’s now made it official.”

But the country that suffered the most from severe weather in 2013 was undoubtedly the Philippines. Typhoon Haiyan devastated the island country, leaving more than 6000 people confirmed dead and thousands more homeless.

Dr Keiran Hickey said the powerful cyclone can be linked to global warming: “One of the major drivers behind hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones – which are the same phenomenon, just in different oceans – is of course, the big driver is sea surface temperatures and obviously as the sea surface warms up, it means more energy can be pushed into these storms so the tendency is for these hurricanes and cyclones and typhoons is that some of them will get much stronger over the coming decades and that typhoon is a classic example of what can actually happen as well. And of course in a country like the Philippines where there is little coastal protection, they are very vulnerable to the impact of major storm events.”...

NASA image of Typhoon Haiyan, November 10, 2013