NOAA near-term weather forecasts get powerful boost from new computer model

NOAA: Starting today, NOAA is using a sophisticated new weather forecast computer model to improve predictions of quickly developing severe weather events including thunderstorms, winter storms and aviation hazards such as clear air turbulence.

The Rapid Refresh now provides NOAA's most rapidly updated weather forecast, replacing an older model that served a similar function. The Rapid Refresh, developed by NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. and NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Camp Springs, Md., updates every hour with a new forecast extending out 18 hours for North America. Such forecasts are especially important in aviation, where fast-developing weather conditions can affect safety and efficiency, but they are equally important for severe weather and energy-related forecasting.

"When accurate and timely weather modeling is needed most, the new Rapid Refresh model delivers," said Louis Uccellini, Ph.D., director, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, a part of NOAA's National Weather Service. "This new tool ensures that forecasts are the best they can be by using the latest science and computer techniques in an effort to create a more Weather-Ready Nation."

The United States is the only country in the world that updates computer model forecasts every hour using the latest observations from an extensive network of ground- and satellite-based sensors, radars and aircraft, said Stan Benjamin, lead developer of the new model and a research meteorologist at the Earth System Research Laboratory....

The Rapid Refresh model extends the geographical coverage of NOAA's weather situational awareness information to all of North America, not just the contiguous U.S. as was the case for the older model. Image from NOAA