California's Jesusita Fire likely a sign of things to come

San Francisco Chronicle: The wildfire crackling over dry chaparral and engulfing homes in Santa Barbara is an ominous sign for the Bay Area, which experts say is ready to burn after two years of drought. It is an example of how dry shrublands are throughout California, which is enduring a third straight year of drought conditions, according to Rick Halsey, an ecologist and expert in fire fuels from Escondido.

"Every year seems to be getting worse," said Halsey, who works for the California Chaparral Institute. "I don't see the climate changing and people are still building. If this is any indication, it certainly seems like it is going to get a lot worse." Invasive, fire-prone weeds have taken over in many areas of Northern and Southern California, he said, creating kindling for fire. Combine that with a warming climate, drought and an ever-increasing population and you have what he called "a perfect storm" for fire.

..."Here we have coastal ranges in California that don't normally see fire this early and we're seeing fire there in the spring," Van Gerwen said. "It creates a condition where people should beware of what could be in store this fire season." The Santa Barbara fire is not what firefighters would characterize as a good omen.

…Tim Duane, professor of environmental planning and policy at UC Berkeley, said there is no way of knowing from the latest Santa Barbara fire whether this year will be as bad as last year. But, he said, the long-term outlook is grim.

….Scientists predict that the biggest change in California from climate change this century will be an "alarming, increasing trend" in fire frequency between now and 2085. Acreage burned by fires is expected to increase by between 57 and 169 percent, according to a statistical model of the relationship between fires and climate conditions in California…..

Moonlight Fire in California, 2007, US Forest Service