Rising temperatures may hurt Brazilian agriculture

Exduco.net has a report about the climate change impact on five key Brazilian crops: …Some Brazilian researchers are trying to evaluate in detail the damage that the agricultural sector will suffer if temperatures continue to rise. To achieve that goal, CEPAGRI/UNICAMP, the center for research into the impact of climate change on agriculture at the State University of Campinas, has completed a study that analyzes various regions of the country in terms of climatic risk to five main crops: coffee, rice, beans, corn and soy. “Using this analysis, we know exactly what, when and where we can plant without producing any damage to the climate,” says Milton Silveira Pinto, associate director and research coordinator of CEPAGRI.

….In the worst case scenario, the study shows that the principal grain crops grown in Brazil could decline by 50% over the next century. Coffee, a sector responsible for five percent of Brazil’s agricultural business, would suffer the most damage, a 90% decline in production. According to Silveira Pinto, that product would no longer exist forever in traditional areas of cultivation in western Sấo Paulo State, the country’s most productive area. It would be produced only in Paraná and Río Grande del Sur, two southern regions that have more pleasant temperatures. “Even if there is only an increase of one degree Celsius, the damage produced by the decline in coffee production would reach $600 million. Some people say that that this most optimistic view is irreversible and that it will happen in the short term; that is, in 10 to 15 years,” says Silveira Pino.…

For his part, Jurandir Zullo, director of CEPAGRI, is certain that “if the forecasts of the IPCC turn out to be true, not one of our main crops will benefit. That’s why it is important for us to be prepared.” Zullo notes that the study of global warming takes two situations into account. “The first line [of thought] evaluates if climate changes are really happening. The second considers what is going to happen with Brazilian agriculture if there are changes, and what impact that will have on efforts to stay profitable.”…