Tuesday, August 19, 2014

India risks loss of 8.7% of GDP by 2100 on climate change

The Economic Times via PTI (India): A global failure to respond to climate changes could result in about 8.7 per cent economic loss in India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2100, Asian Development Bank said today.  "India, one of the largest agrarian economies in the world, is deeply at risk from climate change, and could see economic losses of up to 8.7 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 if the world fails to respond to a host of climate threats, the Manila bas
ed multi-lateral funding agency said in a report.

Report titled 'Assessing the Costs of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia' predicts Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka will see an average annual economic loss of 1.8 per cent of their collective GDP by 2050, rising sharply to 8.8 per cent by 2100.  "Without changes to current global behavior, India would see economic losses equivalent to 1.8 per cent of annual GDP by 2050, widening to 8.7 per cent by the end of the century."

But if mitigation and adaptation steps are taken to keep the temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, the damage could be kept below 2 per cent by 2100, it said.  "Agriculture provides employment and livelihood opportunities to most of India's rural population and changes in temperature and rainfall, and an increase in floods and droughts linked to climate change, would have a devastating impact on people's food security, incomes, and lives," said Bindu Lohani, ADB Vice-President for Knowledge Management and Sustainable Development.

Changes in rainfall patterns are likely to benefit rice output in most north-eastern states, however southern states could see annual yields decline by 5 per cent in 2030s, 14.5 per cent in 2050s, and 17 per cent in 2080s.

"The country has 8,000 km of coastline and nearly half the country's 28 states could face serious consequences from a rise in the sea level, with Gujarat expected to suffer the highest level of inundation, and Maharashtra the largest number of affected people," as per the report....

Eggplants for sale in Gujarat, shot by Arne Hückelheim, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license 

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