NOAA's Atlantic hurricane season update calls for increase in named storms

NOAA: NOAA issued its updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook today raising the number of expected named storms from its pre-season outlook issued in May. Forecasters also increased their confidence that 2011 will be an active Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, updates its Atlantic hurricane season outlook every August.

“The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.”

Key climate factors predicted in May continue to support an active season. These include: the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons; exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures (the third warmest on record); and the possible redevelopment of La Niña. Reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic also favor an active season.

• ...Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the whole season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects, with a 70 percent probability, a total of:
• 14 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 7 to 10 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)...

Tropical Storm Emily hasn't become any better organized since this morning. In fact, the low level center has become exposed and is located to the west of the convection due to wind shear. Emily will move over western Hispaniola tonight. If she survives the interaction with Hispaniola and eastern Cuba upper level winds are expected to become more favorable for some strengthening as Emily moves northwestward across the Bahamas. This image is from GOES East at 1745Z on August 3, 2011.