Improving climate prediction through research into aerosols

PR Newswire: Scientists need a more detailed understanding of how human-produced atmospheric particles, called aerosols, affect climate in order to produce better predictions of Earth's future climate, according to a NASA-led report issued by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program on Friday.

"Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts," is the latest in a series of Climate Change Science Program reports that addresses various aspects of the country's highest priority climate research, observation and decision-support needs. The study's authors include scientists from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Department of Energy.

"The influence of aerosols on climate is not yet adequately taken into account in our computer predictions of climate," said Mian Chin, report coordinating lead author from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "An improved representation of aerosols in climate models is essential to more accurately predict the climate changes."

…Although Earth's atmosphere consists primarily of gases, aerosols and clouds play significant roles in shaping conditions at the surface and in the lower atmosphere.

…Current predictions of how much Earth's average surface temperature will increase in the future fall in a wide range. If the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases double from the levels in the atmosphere in 1990, the increase in temperature is expected to be from 2.2 to 7.9 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The role of greenhouse gases in global warming is fairly well established, but the degree to which the cooling effect of human-produced aerosols offsets the warming is still inadequately understood. The report states that scientists should strive to improve their understanding of aerosols' climate influences with the goal of cutting that range of uncertainty by nearly two-thirds.