US intelligence agencies fret that warming may cause instability

US News and World Report: U.S. intelligence agencies usually work hard to stay outside the political fray [what a novel statement!], but this week they waded firmly into the debate over climate change by producing an unsettling assessment of the national security implications of changing weather patterns.

"We assess that no country will be immune to the effects of climate change, but some will be able to cope more effectively than others," says Thomas Fingar, who heads the National Intelligence Council, which drafted the assessment, adding that sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central and Southeast Asia would be the hardest-hit regions. "However, the spillover—from potentially increased migration and water-related disputes—could have a harmful global impact."

The full report, issued as a National Intelligence Assessment, is classified, and officials say they are not planning to release it. The NIA is distinct from the better-known National Intelligence Estimates by being more speculative and relying more heavily on public sources. Both represent the consensus judgment of the nation's 16 intelligence agencies and carry great analytic weight in Washington.

Appearing before a congressional panel, Fingar discussed the report's findings, which focused heavily on the potential impact of climate change in the next two decades on agricultural production, severe weather effects, water resources, and the possibility of refugee flows from newly drought-ridden areas….

The symbol of the Roman empire, as rendered by Piotr Michał Jaworski (PioM _{EN DE PL}), who has generously released it into the public domain via Wikimedia Commons. Thank you, Piotr