Glaciers as water reservoirs

University of Innsbruck (Austria): …In their recently published study the glaciologists and climatologists, headed by Prof. Georg Kaser and Dr. Ben Marzeion from the Institute of Geography of the University of Innsbruck, have demonstrated that the contribution potential of glaciers to the water supply of populated areas varies regionally. The scientists gathered data on the amount of precipitation on certain glaciers and calculated when the water is discharged and available in populated areas.

“There is a big difference in whether the water is discharged in an arid period or in a period, when there usually is a lot of precipitation, e.g. in monsoon regions in Asia,” explains Ben Marzeion. “And there are regions, for instance around the Aral Sea, where precipitation happens in the mountain regions in winter. The glacier melt water runoff in summer is vital for the population living in this area.“ The Innsbruck researchers modeled estimates that show human dependence on glacier melt in a certain region. They demonstrate that high-mountain communities are highly dependent on glacier melt water but the population density is usually relatively low in these regions. “The impact is a lot more dramatic in mid latitude river basins, where the population density is a lot higher and glacier melt still contributes to the available water reservoir to a large extent,” the climatologists explain.

The incentive of the study was the widespread discussion about the impact of climate change on water availability in highly populated regions. “In the last few years numbers have been named that do not pass a closer examination, “says glaciologist and climatologist Georg Kaser. “It is an exaggeration when it is claimed that the melting of glaciers endangers the water supply of 2 billion people.” With their study the Innsbruck scientists want to draw attention to the considerable regional differences regarding the problem of future water supply. “By all means, the expected climatic development may have detrimental effects for smaller high-mountain communities.”...

The alpine hut known as "Heinrich-Schwaiger Haus" in Austria. In the background Johannisberg (left), the glacier Karlingerkees, Hohe Riffl (right), shot by Tigerente, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Volunteers begin recovery in North Carolina

John Pape in Disaster News Network: More than a month after the remnants of short-lived Tropical Storm Nicole brought record rainfall and flooding to eastern North Carolina, faith-based organizations are continuing to help flood victims recover. The North Carolina Conference of The United Methodist Church and the Baptist State Convention of North Carolina are continuing to provide work crews to repair storm-related damage to homes throughout the region.

Craig Parker, who is in charge of the United Methodist Church’s relief teams in the Elizabeth City District, said first priority is being given to uninsured homeowners, but there are also a number of underinsured people relief teams are helping.

...Parker noted some of the homes impacted by the most recent flood were also swamped during Hurricane Floyd 11 years ago and many residents were hoping for a buy-out. “They said Floyd was a 100-year flood, but now – just 11 years later – they’ve been hit by another 100-year flood. Many don’t want to rebuild and risk getting flooded again,” he said. “They can’t sell to anyone but FEMA because it’s in a flood-prone area, but FEMA hasn’t announced a buy-out.” Many residents flooded this time are still paying off FEMA loans they used to rebuild after Hurricane Floyd.

…More than 420 homes in the disaster area were badly damaged by the storm, including nearly 60 that were completely destroyed, according state emergency management reports. FEMA said residents in the six-county disaster area could apply for low-interest loans from the U.S. Small Business Administration….

FEMA and State inspectors assess the flood damage from Tropical Storm Nicole to a mobile home in Jacksonville, North Carolina, where some areas received over 20 inches of rain. FEMA photo, thanks to Tim Burkitt, photographer

Ten years out -- a decadal prediction system

From the Met Office in the UK: DePreSys is the Met Office decadal climate prediction system (Smith et al., 2007). Although climate is expected to warm over the next century in response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases, regional changes over the coming seasons to a decade or more are likely to be dominated by unforced natural variability of the climate system. Some of this natural variability is potentially predictable months or even years in advance because it is related to relatively slow processes in the ocean, such as El Niño, fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation, and large-scale anomalies of ocean heat content.

Decadal forecasts therefore attempt to predict natural variability in addition to externally forced changes. This is achieved by starting a climate model from the current observed state of the climate system, as well as specifying changes in anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations and projected changes in solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol.

DePreSys uses the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3, HadCM3. Initialisation is achieved by relaxing to full-depth analyses of ocean temperature and salinity (Smith and Murphy, 2007), and atmosphere analyses of winds, temperature and surface pressure. Tests for past cases show that initialisation improves the forecast skill of globally-averaged surface temperature throughout the decade (Smith et al., 2007). Updated decadal forecasts, along with verification of previous forecasts, are available from the experimental seasonal to decadal predictions web page.

John William Waterhouse, "The Crystal Ball," from 1902

Climate researcher speaks out

Alexandra Witze in Science News: Like evolutionary science in times past, climate science is now the target of “an elaborate P.R. campaign” to discredit researchers and their findings, says one of the scientists at the heart of the battle.

Michael Mann, a climate researcher at Pennsylvania State University in State College, is perhaps best known for his work on the “hockey stick” reconstruction of past climate. Like a piece of sports equipment turning up sharply at the end, this graph shows global surface temperatures remaining fairly constant for the last millennium, then sharply upticking over the past several decades. The reconstruction is not the strongest evidence for man-made global warming, Mann notes, but it became something of a poster child when it was featured in a summary for policy makers in the 2001 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

…After running through the evidence supporting human-caused climate change, Mann concluded that “there’s not just a hockey stick — there’s a hockey league.” Some scientific uncertainties do remain about climate change, such as the precise effects of clouds in a changing climate. “There are legitimate uncertainties,” Mann said, “but unfortunately the public discourse right now is so far from scientific discourse.”

…Clearly frustrated, Mann told the science reporters about how he saw the mainstream media as having abandoned their critical faculties in reporting the East Anglia story. Similar frustrations, he said, led him and a group of other climate experts to found the collective blog Realclimate.org several years ago, meant to bring timely and relevant climate information direct from scientists to the public….

John Tenniel's illustration of Alice in Wonderland captured the frustration and danger of trying to persuade a mad tea party to heed reason

Tanzania gets $2.2 million for climate change fight

James Mwakisyala in East Africa Business Week: The Tanzania Government will receive $2.2 million from the Global Climate Change Alliance' for ensure the country take urgent remedial climate change action that will prevent the vulnerable people from devastating effects of global climate change. Tanzania has been selected among an initial set of four pilot countries - along with Cambodia, Vanuatu and Maldives - to benefit from a new financing mechanism called the 'Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA)'. The Alliance aims at providing a platform for dialogue together with financial and technical support.

The EU announced that last week in Dar es Salaam which is part of a larger financial contribution of the Alliance of $ 140 million. In a joint message during the launch of the climate change fund, Tanzania and the European Union called for 'urgent and strong action against climate change' to save the world from climatic catastrophe.

The Head of European Union Delegation in Tanzania, Ambassador Tim Clarke and the Minister of State in the Vice President's Office (Environment), Dr Batilda Burian, acknowledged that climate change was gravely affecting the most vulnerable in the Least Developed Countries (LDC). Minister Ms Burian, who was represented by Richard Muyungi, an Assistant Director in the Vice President's Office and the National Climate Change Focal Point, said Tanzania was "a typical case of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity."

She explained that: "Droughts, floods and rising sea levels are some of the more visible effects of climate change. Hunger and diseases like malaria are indirect consequences. The most vulnerable populations, especially in rural and remote areas in Tanzania are most exposed. Women and children in particular are bearing a disproportionate share of the burden."…

Locator map of Tanzania by Vardion, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative CommonsAttribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Mekong Delta rice farmers long for seasonal floods

Le Hien in Viet Nam News: Viet Nam is the second largest rice exporter in the world. The country exported 6 million tonnes of rice last year. As the biggest delta in the country, the Cuu Long (Mekong) Delta is criss-crossed by a number of rivers with rice fields and orchards in between. The region produces about 17 million tonnes of rice annually, which feeds people throughout the country and is also exported. Aqua products, including fish and shrimp, are raised in the region and three million tonnes of fruits are cultivated in the delta as well.

But this year might be different. Due to the effects of climate change, farmers in the region are bracing for a rough year. For farmers living in the Mekong Delta, every Autumn brings the annual floods, which are accompanied by copious amounts of fish. The fish provide a considerable source of income for Mekong Delta farmers, however, the floods have yet to arrive in the delta as Autumn comes to a close.

Farmers living near the Tien and Hau rivers' upper reaches, in An Giang and Dong Thap provinces, say the water levels in these rivers this year are seriously low. According to hydrographic stations in An Giang and Dong Thap, water levels in all the region's rivers are low – about 0.5-1.45m lower than last year's levels.

Thai Van Minh, vice chairman of Phu Loc Commune in Tan Chau District, An Giang, said he had never experienced such a late arrival of the flood season. "No flooding means no fish or other aqua products for farmers to catch," said Minh….

Arnold Aboretum to study climate change's impact on forests

Katrina Ballard in the Boston Globe, writing about a hotbed of Carbon Based readers: A joint research program at the Harvard University Arnold Arboretum has received a $631,000 grant from the National Science Foundation to study forest changes around the world, according to the arboretum. The Center for Tropical Forest Science, which has 40 locations in 21 countries, will use the grant over five years to fund various workshops in Asia and North and South America for early-career scientists and exchange students, said Dr. Stuart Davies, director of the center.

The program’s international nature aims to balance protection of the world’s most valuable forests in developing countries with economic growth of those countries, he said. “We’re not going to tell these people how to manage their forests but put them in position to help train [them] on the background science required to manage the forests themselves,” said Davies.

Scientists already know forests are sensitive to environmental change, said Davies. For example, a project conducted in Maryland found trees were growing faster than a decade earlier because warmer temperatures extend the growing season, he said. The Northeast has warmed significantly in the last 40 years and springs have lengthened.

The missing information from research thus far, however, is the extent to which forests are responding to climate change. Davies said scientists are unsure is forests across the country are responding in the same way, how drought affects the trees and how widespread the changes are, questions that students in the program will look to answer….

A shot in 1945 by Leon H. Abdalian, uploaded by the Boston Public Library, Wikimedia Commons via flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Dead coral found near BP well site

Bettina Boxall in the Los Angeles Times: Scientists on a research cruise this week found a community of dead and dying deep-sea corals not far from the site of BP's blown-out wellhead. "Within minutes of our arrival … it was evident to the biologists on board that this site was unlike any others that we have seen over the course of hundreds of hours of studying the deep corals in the Gulf of Mexico over the last decade," Penn State University biology professor Charles Fisher and the cruise's chief scientist said in a news release.

A colony of hard coral at a depth of more than 4,000 feet was sloughing off tissue and producing mucus, while a nearby community of soft corals had extensive bare areas. A type of starfish associated with the coral was also in bad shape.

Using a remotely operated robotic vessel, government and academic researchers on the federal ship Ronald H. Brown were surveying coral communities they have studied for several years. Most showed no changes from previous visits.

But when the ship crew focused underwater cameras on colonies seven miles southwest of the BP leak, images of stricken corals, covered with a brown substance, popped up on the screen. The researchers will analyze sediment and coral samples for evidence of hydrocarbons and the chemical dispersants used to break up the crude that spewed for months from BP's Macondo wellhead before it was capped in July….

Spilled oil from the Deepwater Horizon on April 22, 2010, US Coast Guard photo

Awareness up in the Philippines

Rolly T. Carandang in the Manila Bulletin (Philippines): Senator Loren Legarda, the Asia-Pacific Regional Champion for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation, lauded Sunday the growing awareness of citizens and various groups in Eastern Visayas on the issue of climate change.

Legarda, who has produced documentaries to inform the public about climate change, said that the increasing consciousness on the phenomenon would lead to the effective adaptation to its effects.

…Meanwhile, the senator also took notice of the government’s ongoing geo-hazard mapping, which according to the Department of Environment and Natural Resources-Region VIII is almost complete in the Eastern Visayas Region. Geo-hazard mapping is the identification of areas of the country where natural hazards and disasters—such as rain-induced landslides, floods, storm surge, coastal erosion, and sea-level rise, among others—are most likely to occur.

…“This is very useful for our disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation initiatives because we could now effectively shield our communities from the destructive effects of geologic hazards since we would be able to make the necessary preparations and build the proper defenses in the appropriate disaster-prone areas….” Legarda said....

The Loboc River in the Visayas region of the Philippines, shot by Kleomarlo, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported

IRC assesses storm damage in Port-au-Prince camps

The Intenational Rescue Committee: Three International Rescue Committee (IRC) teams are assessing conditions in 13 Port-au-Prince camps today, a day after Hurricane Tomas, now downgraded to a tropical storm, battered parts of Haiti still struggling to recover from January’s earthquake. The IRC’s Susana Ferreira says the city is once again bustling – only many of the roads in Port-au-Prince now look like rivers.

First stop for her assessment team was a small site in the Tabarre district with 400 people. The camp was hit hard by wind and rain on Friday, but she said it was spared any major damage. “Residents here were as prepared as they could be for Tomas,” says Ferreira. “They reinforced their tents, as well as a network of drainage canals they had dug around their dwellings earlier this year.”

…In the wake of the storm, the IRC will be prioritizing repairs to latrines, washing stations and other sanitation facilities as needed and stepping up its cholera prevention efforts as the epidemic widens. To date the outbreak that surfaced in the rural Artibonite area north of Port-au-Prince last month has killed more than 440 people and hospitalized more than 6,700 -- and the numbers continue to inch up.

The water-borne disease causes severe vomiting and diarrhoea which can result in dehydration and death within a matter of hours….

Singapore calls for climate fund

Today Online (Singapore): If a balanced outcome is to be struck on climate change, developed countries must provide support to developing countries, Senior Minister S Jayakumar urged as he chaired ministerial talks in Mexico ahead of the United Nations climate change meeting next month. In particular, Professor Jayakumar called for a new Climate Fund to be established in Cancun, which would "serve as a confidence building measure and signal the developed countries' willingness to provide long-term support to developing countries to undertake adaptation and mitigation actions".

Financing, technology cooperation and capacity building will be core issues in the upcoming negotiations, Singapore's National Climate Change Secretariat said on Friday. Expectations are low around the world that a legally-binding agreement can be reached. In Copenhagen last year, only several countries, including Singapore, had made various mitigation pledges. "It's important that after a year of negotiations, further progress is made," Prof Jayakumar said.

He said a decision on mitigation as well as on measurement, reporting and verification would "send a strong signal that countries remain committed" to the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change process. He stressed that there should not be a short-term focus, though. "A balanced package in itself won't make any sense if we don't make it very clear that such a package will form the basis for a future outcome that is legally-binding," he said….

Dyke solution to Bangkok's flooding threat is double dutch, says expert

Bangkok Post: As Thailand experiences its worst flooding in decades, scientists are reviving talk of building a dyke across the Gulf of Thailand to protect the country from climate-related flooding. The monster dyke could be based on those in the Netherlands, where a network of dykes helps prevent surging sea water invading the land.

…At a seminar called ''Bangkok: The Underwater City'' organised by the House committee on natural resources and environment recently, scientists discussed factors that could cause Bangkok to become a sinking city. One is the city's geography, with a slope on the eastern side facing towards the Chao Phraya River. This means the capital is exposed to possible city-wide flooding during the rainy season as rain water flows across the city _ from higher ground in the west towards the slope down to the river.

Other factors include overflows of the Chao Phraya due to excessive flood water and run-off from the North; extreme rises in sea levels coinciding with heavy rainfall; land subsidence in Bangkok; and the lack of an urban natural drainage system.

…A local academic, however, says such extreme measures may not be necessary, and may not even work well. Geologist Thanawat Jarungsakul said the Gulf has different ecological qualities from those of the Netherlands. The Gulf receives fresh water from rivers that carry sediment. The sediment accumulates near the shores when flushed out and becomes mudflats that provide nursing grounds and food sources for marine life. To sustain their quality, circulating water is needed….

A tuk tuk in Bangkok during the monsoon, shot by Catatonique, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Rains hit Haiti, flooding refugee camp

Terra Daily via AFP: Heavy rains lashed Haiti Friday flooding one of the capital's largest refugee camps, triggering mud slides in the south, and leaving one person dead, local media and civil defense officials said. A makeshift camp for the homeless set up following the January quake which ravaged Port-au-Prince was already swamped after Hurricane Tomas began dumping rains over the country late Thursday.

The tent city near the ruined presidential palace, home to thousands of dispossessed, was already swimming in several inches (centimeters) of water, radio Vision 2000 said. "The wind has not yet picked up, but the rains are falling harder and harder in Port-au-Prince," aid worker Marianna Franco, from the non-governmental organization ACTED told AFP.

One person was killed late Thursday when he tried to cross a swollen river by car, Interior Minister Paul-Antoine Bien-Aime said. Tomas is forecast to bring five to 10 inches (12 to 25 centimeters) of rain to much of Haiti, with isolated areas being drenched with 15 inches (38 centimeters), US weather experts said….

Hurricane Tomas on October 30

Soil takes decades to recover from toxic spills

Science 2.0: With the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the toxic mud spill in Hungary, the big question is how long will recovery take? Unfortunately, yet at least scientifically apt, is that there are previous disasters to help answer those questions.

Twelve years ago there was a spillage of pyritic sludge from a mine at Aznalcóllar, in the Doñana National Park in Spain, where four million cubic meters of acidic water and one million cubic meters of waste material containing high levels of toxic compounds contaminated more than 4,500 hectares of the rivers Agrio and Guadiamar and the land around them. Now, a team led by the National Museum of Natural Science (NMNS-Spanish National Research Council) states that the soil affected has recovered "reasonably well". Their study of nematodes (microscopic soil worms that are indicators of the biological state of soil) confirmed the "enormous" impact of heavy metals and is useful for predicting the effect of the red mud spillage in Hungary.

One month ago, a spillage of red mud with toxic material from the aluminium holding pond in the city of Kolontar occurred west of Budapest in Hungary and reached the Danube. The immediate consequences were the loss of ten human lives and the destruction of houses and crops. In Spain, the Aznalcóllar spillage in 1998 affected the fauna in the soil of Doñana and exterminated several species. Some nematodes disappeared in the first few months after the disaster. …

"Red sludge" alumina plant accident, Devecser, Hungary. Shot by the Hungarian government, Wikimedia Commons

Central America espcially vulnerable

Danilo Valladares in IPS: Having suffered the devastation of extreme weather phenomena in recent years, such as hurricanes Mitch, Stan and Agatha, the countries of Central America will head to the next global climate summit with an emphasis on their vulnerability and demand access to better conditions for dealing with climate disasters. They will make their case at the 16th Conference of Parties (COP 16) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Nov. 29-Dec. 10 in the southeastern Mexican resort city of Cancún.

"What we are most concerned about is the issue of vulnerability and adaptation, taking into account that the region contributes little to the greenhouse effect but we are very vulnerable to climate change," Carlos Mancilla, coordinator of the climate change unit at Guatemala's Environment Ministry, told IPS. All told, the countries of Central America contribute less than 0.5 percent of the total greenhouse-effect gases at the global level, according to "The Economics of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean 2009," a study by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

…In Mancilla's view, Central America must be recognised as one of the world's regions most vulnerable to climate change in order to obtain financing for adaptation, capacity building, and technology transfer….

Arab world faces worsening water crisis: report

Alistair Lyon in Reuters: The Arab world, one of the driest regions on the planet, will tip into severe water scarcity as early as 2015, a report issued on Thursday predicts. By then, Arabs will have to survive on less than 500 cubic meters of water a year each, or below a tenth of the world average of more than 6,000 cubic meters per capita, said the report by the Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED).

"The Arab world is already living a water crisis that will only get worse with inaction," the report says, adding per capita supply has plunged to only a quarter of its 1960 level. Rapid population growth will further stress water resources. According to U.N. projections, the Arabs, who now number almost 360 million, will multiply to nearly 600 million by 2050.

Climate change will aggravate matters. By the end of this century, Arab countries may experience a 25 percent drop in precipitation and a 25 percent increase in evaporation rates, according to climate change models cited in the report.

"As a result, rain-fed agriculture will be threatened, with average yields estimated to decline by 20 percent," it says. Thirteen Arab countries are among the world's 19 most water-scarce nations. People in eight Arab countries already have to make do with less than 200 cubic meters a year each. "Without fundamental changes in policies and practices, the situation will get worse, with drastic social, political and economic ramifications," the AFED report says….

A desert road in Dubai at sunset, shot by , Wikimedia Commons, by CT Cooper (Christopher T Cooper). More free pictures by him can be found at User:CT Cooper/Gallery.

Discussion can hurt consensus-building on science/technology

The North Carolina State University News Room brightens our day with a glum finding: When it comes to public issues pertaining to science and technology, “talking it out” doesn’t seem to work. A new study from North Carolina State University shows that the more people discuss the risks and benefits associated with scientific endeavors, the more entrenched they become in their viewpoint – and the less likely they are to see the merit of other viewpoints.

“This research highlights the difficulty facing state and federal policy leaders when it comes to high-profile science and technology issues, such as stem cell research or global warming,” says Dr. Andrew Binder, an assistant professor of communication at NC State and lead author of the study. “Government agencies view research on these issues as vital and necessary for the country’s future, but building public consensus for that research is becoming increasingly difficult.”

The researchers set out to see how people talk about risks associated with unfamiliar science and technology issues, Binder explains. “Most people, when faced with an issue related to science and technology, adopt an initial position of support or opposition,” Binder says. “Our results demonstrate very clearly that the more people talk about divisive science and technology issues, the less likely the two camps are to see the issue in the same way. This is problematic because it suggests that individuals are very selective in choosing their discussion partners and hearing only what they want to hear during discussions of controversial issues.”

In the study, the researchers focused on public debate related to the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility (NBAF), which the federal government discussed building in one of six sites around the country. Some members of the public opposed building a facility housing highly infectious animal diseases in their community. The six proposed sites were Athens, Ga., Manhattan, Kan., Plum Island, N.Y., Butner, N.C., Flora, Miss., and San Antonio, Texas. Manhattan was ultimately selected as the site for the NBAF.
The researchers conducted surveys of residents living near the proposed sites to collect data on people’s perceptions of the potential risks and benefits associated with NBAF. Specifically, the results showed that, among people who opposed the facility, the more an individual discussed the issue with other people in their community, the more firmly entrenched he/she became in his/her perception of greater risks and fewer benefits. Conversely, among those who supported the facility, increased discussion led to an increased perception of benefits and a decreased perception of risks….

Lenin speaking in Sverdlov Square in Moscow, 1920, with Trotsky eliminated from the picture

Water flowing through ice sheets accelerates warming, could speed up ice flow

University of Colarado at Boulder: Melt water flowing through ice sheets via crevasses, fractures and large drains called moulins can carry warmth into ice sheet interiors, greatly accelerating the thermal response of an ice sheet to climate change, according to a new study involving the University of Colorado at Boulder.

The new study showed ice sheets like the Greenland Ice Sheet can respond to such warming on the order of decades rather than the centuries projected by conventional thermal models. Ice flows more readily as it warms, so a warming climate can increase ice flows on ice sheets much faster than previously thought, said the study authors.

"We are finding that once such water flow is initiated through a new section of ice sheet, it can warm rather significantly and quickly, sometimes in just 10 years, " said lead author Thomas Phillips, a research scientist with Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. CIRES is a joint institute between CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

…Conventional thermal models of ice sheets do not factor in the presence of water within the ice sheet as a warming agent, but instead use models that primarily consider ice-sheet heating by warmer air on the ice sheet surface. In water's absence, ice warms slowly in response to the increased surface temperatures from climate change, often requiring centuries to millennia to happen.

But the Greenland ice sheet is not one solid, smooth mass of ice. As the ice flows towards the coast, grating on bedrock, crevasses and new fractures form in the upper 100 feet of the ice sheet. Melt water flowing through these openings can create "ice caves" and networks of "pipes" that can carry water through the ice and spreading warmth, the authors concluded.

…"The fact that the ice temperatures warm rather quickly is really the key piece that's been overlooked in models currently being used to determine how Greenland responds to climate warming," Steffen said. "However, this process is not the ‘death knell' for the ice sheet. Even under such conditions, it would still take thousands of years for the Greenland ice sheet to disappear, Steffen said….

Hannes Grobe took this aerial shot of the margin of the Greenland ice sheet, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.5 Generic license

German wetlands yielding to agriculture

Kim Bode, Katharina Fuhrin and Christian Schwägerl in Der Spiegel: Even as Berlin demands that developing countries preserve their rainforests, the country is doing little for biodiversity back home. Bogs and marshland in Germany are increasingly yielding to corn farming -- resulting in the release of huge quantities of CO2.

It's hard to tell just by looking at Rhinluch, a region northwest of Berlin, that an ecological drama is playing out here. Lush green vegetation stretches out toward the horizon and cranes glide across the sky. The countryside around the small river Rhin seems like an idyllic rural landscape.

But Andreas Piela, a nature conservation expert for the Environment Ministry in the state of Brandenburg, doesn't look happy. "We're destroying this ecosystem," he says, as serious as if he were gazing into the deep hole of an open pit coal mine

…Meanwhile, the German government is lecturing the rest of the world on preserving ecosystems. Last Tuesday, during the UN Convention on Biodiversity in Nagoya, Japan, German Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen called on countries in tropical regions to preserve their rainforests, since clearing these forests releases enormous amounts of greenhouse gases and wipes out species. Chancellor Angela Merkel appealed to the world to take action, even if this would have a "deep impact on our way of life and our economy." The UN Climate Change Conference starting at the end of November in Cancún, Mexico, will set the stage for similar appeals. The question is how much credibility Germany has on the global stage when its own bogs are disappearing.

...Marshlands once covered huge areas of the country, but they are disappearing on a large scale. "Bogs, unfortunately, are often unprotected and subject to intensive use," criticizes Beate Jessel, president of the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation. A warning cry is sounding especially in the states of Lower Saxony, Brandenburg, Schleswig-Holstein and Bavaria….

Tidal freshwater in Germany

The struggle for coastal cities

A great, chock-full article by Douglas Fischer in the Daily Climate: The city of Alexandria, Egypt's second largest, spills down either side of a thin ridge running some 100 kilometers along the Mediterranean coast, hard up against the sea on one side and marsh and reclaimed fields on the other.

It is an ancient port city, never designed for the car, and traffic congestion has long been the city's bane. So a few years ago, gridlocked and desperate, the city paved over some of its beaches and ran a six-lane highway for 25 kilometers along the Mediterranean shore.

…As sea levels rise and storm surges increase in response to a changing climate, Alexandria is finding that a solution to one problem has inadvertently opened the city to others. Nor is Alexandria alone. Around the world, low-lying cities are facing unexpected challenges that threaten to chew through scarce or non-existent cash and leave residents and property increasingly vulnerable.

Protecting those residents from rising oceans and surging water remains one of the more daunting challenges presented by climate change, many engineers and urban planners say. It could also be one of the most expensive. Last month 1,100 delegates from 62 countries gathered here in Europe's largest port to assess how to best adapt to the threat climate change poses to the world's delta cities. The task is daunting.

Overall, some $70 billion to $100 billion a year - 0.2 percent of global gross domestic product - will be needed to adequately protect cities throughout the developing world, Dutch Crown Prince Willem Alexander noted as he opened the conference, sponsored by the Dutch Knowledge for Climate research program…..

The corniche in Alexandria, with a crashing wave, shot by Daniel Mayer, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported

Cholera-hit Haiti braces for looming storm

Terra Daily via AFP: Haiti reeled from a spike in cholera deaths as authorities planned mass evacuations from squalid tent cities ahead of a major storm set to lash the Americas' poorest nation beginning Thursday.

Tropical Storm Tomas was barreling toward Haiti, threatening a direct hit early Friday as a hurricane bringing "life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over mountainous terrain," according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).

A hurricane warning was issued, which means hurricane conditions are expected in the affected area within 24 to 36 hours, while tropical storm-force winds and rain were expected to buffet the Caribbean nation from late Thursday. "These conditions make outside preparations difficult or dangerous, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion," the Miami-based center warned….

Tropical Storm Tomas from NOAA

Impact of climate change on Scotland's north-east coastline examined

Aberdeen City Council (Scotland): Scientists from across the globe are gathering today (Wednesday November 3) to examine the potential impacts of climate change on North-east Scotland's coastline. More than 30 delegates are attending a meeting in Aberdeen, focusing on measures to reduce changes to the area's coastlines and the consequences for local communities.

Visits will be held today at sites vulnerable to the effects of climate change along the North-east coast. Ways in which the public are being encouraged to share their views on the impact of climate change in their area will also be outlined.

The two-day meeting brings together scientists, policy makers, educators and stakeholders working together under the Innovative Management for Europe's Changing Coastal Resource (IMCORE) project.

Funded by a €6million EU grant, the project involves 15 partners from across north-west Europe. Its aim is to develop a unified approach to safeguard the future of our coasts from the ecological, social and economic impacts of climate change.

This includes developing approaches to defend coastal communities from flooding and erosion and protect coastal sectors such as fisheries and aquaculture, ports and shipping, and marine recreation. …By engaging with local stakeholders, the research aims to create a co-ordinated approach to identify coastal areas in Aberdeen city and shire that are vulnerable to the impact of climate change and the necessary measures which need to be taken to maintain them for the future.

…A website - www.aberdeenclimatechange.net - has also been launched by the initiative to provide an online resource for people to share data, information and views about climate change issues relating to Aberdeen city and shire…

Robert Salmon's "Curious Rocks, Coast of Scotland," 1828

One million trees for Mt Elgon region

IRIN: A three-year project to increase forest cover and help local communities in eastern Uganda adapt to climate change has been launched. "The planting of one million trees has started to sustain an area of tropical forest in Africa the size of Wales," said John Griffiths, counsel-general of the Welsh Assembly, which is supporting the project. "These trees will not only absorb carbon but provide shade for crops."

The US$1 million Territorial Approach to Climate Change (TACC) project, launched in the eastern town of Mbale on 28 October, is also supported by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the UK government. It will be implemented in the districts of Bududa, Manafwa and Mbale.

"Mt Elgon's ecosystem plays a crucial role in determining the weather in eastern, central and northern Uganda and western Kenya," said Bernard Mujasi, the Mbale local council chairman. "We hope that by protecting and restoring the forest cover of the mountain and protecting the environment, we will help mitigate the challenge of climate change."

Lebogang Motlana, Uganda country director for UNDP, said the country was highly vulnerable to climate change as illustrated by a landslide in Bududa near Mbale, earlier this year, which left at least 300 people dead and was attributed to deforestation and unseasonable rain….

A tree in the foreground, Uganda's Bwindi Mountains in the background, shot by tajai, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Rivers run dry as drought hits Amazon

Erik German and Solana Pyne in the GlobalPost: ...October marked the end of one of the worst Amazon droughts on record — a period of tinder-dry forests, dusty cropland and rivers falling to unprecedented lows. Streams are the highways of the deep jungle and they’re also graveyards for dead trees, usually hidden safely under fathoms of navigable water.

…While the region has seen dry spells before, locals and experts say droughts have grown more frequent and severe. Scientists say there’s mounting evidence the Amazon's shifting weather may be caused by global climate change.

…“Every ecosystem has some point beyond which it can’t go,” said Oliver Phillips, a tropical ecology professor at the University of Leeds who has spent decades studying how forests react to changing weather. “The concern now is that parts of the Amazon may be approaching that threshold.”

…It still remains to be seen whether the rain forest’s ability to absorb greenhouse gases has been permanently harmed. “We can’t say for sure — it could be happening now,” Phillips said. “Often you don’t know you’ve passed a turning point until you’ve already passed it.”

Phillips said he’s worried about yet another drought following so closely after the last. Along the edge of the forest in Peru and Bolivia, there were more fires this year than any year on record, he said, along with reports of substantial damage to plants in the normally wet northwestern Amazon….

Satellite image of the Xingu River in Brazil, via NASA

Flash floods strand thousands in major Thai city

Terra Daily via AFP: Thailand battled Tuesday to rescue thousands of people stranded in their homes after flash floods -- several metres deep in places -- swept through a southern city, cutting power and communications. Heavy flooding has already killed more than 100 people around the country since October 10 in what Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva described as "a huge natural calamity".

Rising waters began to inundate Hat Yai, a city of more than 150,000 in Songkhla province, late Monday after days of heavy downpours, affecting tens of thousands of people, possibly including foreign tourists. At least two people were reported to have died in the south and power and telephone communications on the popular tourist island of Samui were reported to have been disrupted, along with ferry services….

A view of Hat Yai in Thailand, shot by Love Krittaya, Wikimedia Commons

Half a million displaced by Nigerian floods

Abdulkadir Badsha Mukhtar in AllAfrica.com via the Daily Trust (Nigeria): The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has confirmed that about 500,000 Nigerians have been displaced due to the devastating floods so far recorded in the year as at last month. The Director General of the Agency Alhaji Mohammed Sani-Sidi disclosed this yesterday during an assessment tour of flooded communities in Bayelsa State.

Sani-Sidi said, "The country witnesses the debilitating effects of flooding with states like Sokoto, Jigawa, Kebbi, Nassarawa, Lagos, Ogun, Cross River and Akwa Ibom recording an incidence rate in which a total of about 500,000 Nigerians have been displaced and their properties and means of livelihood washed away".

A statement from Yushau A. Shuaib, NEMA's Head of Press and Public Relations, quoted the director general as saying that the recent weather patterns in the country and indeed the world had resulted in adverse ecological imbalances, adding, "We are now victims of this fate wherever you go; North; South; East or West". He observed that although flooding in communities along the Niger trough and coastal communities is not new, what is however more worrisome is the severity of these cases as witnessed in Amassoma, Odi, Tombia, Sagbama and the extreme weather conditions experienced globally due to climate change….

A 1911 postcard of Lokoja in Nigeria, with the Benue River in the background

Flood-hit Pakistan faces more challenges from climate change

Associated Press of Pakistan: A Pakistani delegate told a UN General Assembly panel Tuesday that the “extraordinarily hard” floods in Pakistan have underscored the need to link adaptation of adverse impact of climate change to government’s economic planning.Speaking in the 192-member assembly’s economic committee, Farrukh Iqbal Khan, a counselor at the Pakistan Mission to the UN, also said Pakistan could face more challenges from climate change and he voiced disappointment over the slow pace of international negotiations to deal with the phenomenon.

Listing some of the challenges confronting Pakistan, he said that rapid recession of Hindu Kush-Karakoram Himalayan glaciers threatens water flows into the Indus river system; changed pattern in monsoon and precipitation levels increases floods risks and droughts; severe water and heat stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions reduce agriculture productivity and power generation; increased upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus Delta, adversely affect coastal agriculture, mangrove and breeding grounds of fish, and ,sea level rise, high cyclonic activity and higher surface temperature pose threat to coastal areas, especially Karachi.

Iqbal Khan, who was speaking in a debate on Sustainable Development, said the multidimensional nature of sustainable development lay in its three basic constituents: economic growth, social development and environmental protection. Pakistan believed that the concept of a green economy was more of an “innovative approach” to sustainable development than a distinct concept of it….

Expanding croplands chipping away at world’s carbon stocks

Tracy Devitt in the University of Wisconsin-Madison News: Nature's capacity to store carbon, the element at the heart of global climate woes, is steadily eroding as the world's farmers expand croplands at the expense of native ecosystem such as forests.

The tradeoff between agricultural production and maintaining nature's carbon reservoirs — native trees, plants and their carbon-rich detritus in the soil — is becoming more pronounced as more and more of the world's natural ecosystems succumb to the plow. The problem, experts say, is most acute in the tropics, where expanding agriculture often comes at the expense of the tropical forests that act as massive carbon sinks because of their rich diversity and abundance of plant life.

The seriousness of the problem is documented in the most comprehensive and fine-grained analysis of the world's existing carbon stocks and global crop yields. The study is published online this week (Nov. 1) in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) by a team of researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the University of Minnesota, Stanford University, Arizona State University and The Nature Conservancy.

,,,"We analyzed the tradeoffs between carbon storage and crop production at a level of detail that has never been possible before," according to Stephen Carpenter, one of the senior authors of the study and a professor at the Center for Limnology at UW-Madison. "The main news is that agricultural production by clearing land in the tropics releases a lot of greenhouse gases per unit of food produced."

Compared to the world's temperate regions, the tropics release nearly twice as much carbon to the atmosphere for each unit of land cleared, explains Paul C. West, a UW-Madison graduate student and the lead author of the new study. "Tropical forests store a tremendous amount of carbon, and when a forest is cleared, not only do you lose more carbon, but crop yields are not nearly as high as they are in temperate areas."

"This creates a kind of 'double whammy' for a lot of tropical agriculture: we have to clear carbon-rich ecosystems to create tropical croplands, and unfortunately they often have lower yields than temperate systems," says Jonathan Foley, director of the University of Minnesota's Institute on the Environment and a co-author on the study. "In terms of balancing the needs of food production and slowing carbon dioxide emissions, this is a tough tradeoff."...

Combining global cropland distribution and changes in carbon stocks due to cropland expansion into native ecosystems shows that carbon loss per ton of annual crop yield is nearly three times as high in the tropics compared to temperate regions. Maps from the University of Wisconsin-Madison website, courtesy of Paul West, UW-Madison Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment and UW-Madison Center for Limnology

Sandy spores help seed clouds

Kate Ravilious in Environmental Research Web: For most of us sandy beaches are associated with sandcastles and sunbathing, but now it turns out that these golden stretches of coastline could also play an important role in the kind of weather that we receive. New research shows that bacterial and fungal spores in windblown sand may be influencing the amount and type of clouds in the sky.

Brian Palenik from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, US, and colleagues collected air samples from the end of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography pier – located around 300 m from the shore. An analysis of the aerosols in the samples showed that two types of fungi – Basidiomycota and Ascomycota – and two types of bacteria – Firmicutes and Proteobacteria – were common constituents of the mix.

….Palenik and colleagues' data suggest that sandy beaches could be a significant source of biological aerosols with the potential to affect cloud formation. Since sandy beaches are found all over the world they may be an important provider of biological aerosols and hence play a previously unappreciated role in our weather. And as our climate changes the role that some of these biological aerosols play could alter too. …

Crepuscular rays through clouds, shot by PiccoloNamek, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0

Tens of thousands left homeless in Benin floods

Terra Daily via AFP: Worsening floods in the West African nation of Benin have destroyed 55,000 homes, killed tens of thousands of livestock and created a new cholera risk, the United Nations said Monday. Rainfall has poured down in the West African nation since mid-September. More than 300 people have been killed this rainy season in western and central Africa and at least 680,000 people in Benin alone have been affected by the floods.

A UN statement said the Niger River was rising "worsening the situation". About 200,000 people are in need of shelter, with over 55,000 homes totally destroyed, 128,000 hectares (316,000 acres) of crops ruined, and 81,000 livestock dead, said the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

The World Food Programme (WFP) and aid groups CARE and Caritas have distributed food to thousands of homeless. "Food is one of the most important needs," said Moumini Ouedraogo of the WFP. "Many people lost their crops because of the devastating floods -- if we do not intervene in time, the consequences could be serious."…

A fishing village on the banks of the Niger River in Benin, shot by Nerijp, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Indian farmers pool groundwater to protect against drought

Manipadma Jena in Reuters AlertNet: Until 10 years ago, the six acres of land Dappu Pulya owns with his younger brother in India's drought-prone state of Andhra Pradesh produced nothing but debt. The brothers took out loan after loan to buy seeds, pesticides and fertilizers but their crops failed as the monsoons came late or less rain fell. After investing in two bore wells that drew no water, they migrated to Mumbai to work in construction.

But since they returned in 2000 to their hamlet of Malkaipet, in Ibrahimpur village some 100 kilometres from Hyderabad, things have been different. With their earnings, they paid off their loans, dug another bore well that drew water and in 2008 joined 17 other farmers in a groundwater-sharing network.

The network is transforming agriculture in a region where chronically low rainfall and unpredictable rainfall patterns - exacerbated by climate change - have left many farmers in ruin. Through the network, six bore well owners share their water, via a network of channels, with twelve farmers without wells. Farmers pay into a common fund to maintain the system, with those who invested in wells paying much less.

"Such community networks address the water crisis challenge by not only protecting the investments of bore well owners, but also by providing critical irrigation to those who do not have access to groundwater," said Suresh Kosaraju, director of the Watershed Support Services and Activities Network (WASSAN), a Hyderabad-based non-profit. "This will result in all-round protection of livelihoods as well as ensuring food security," he said….

Irrigating an Indian rice field, shot by Sebastianjude, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Experts see green shoots in Myanmar's disaster preparation efforts

Than Htike Oo in the Myanmar Times: Cyclones, droughts, earthquakes, fires that destroy forests and homes, floods, landslides, storm surges and tsunamis: All pose a threat to lives and property in Myanmar, international disaster assistance professionals say.

Myanmar’s vulnerability to natural disaster was brought into sharp relief by Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which killed at least 138,000 people and caused more than US$4 billion worth of damage. But since then, experts say, progress has been made in preparing for disasters that should help increase the level of protection provided.

Much of the threat is caused or compounded by climate change, to which Myanmar has contributed very little. But according to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index, released by the global risks advisory firm Maplecroft, Myanmar ranks 10th globally in terms of the countries most vulnerable to extreme weather-related events thought to be caused by climate change.

According to the Hazard Profile of Myanmar, a book compiled by the government, Myanmar Engineering Society (MES), Myanmar Geosciences Society (MGS), Myanmar Information Management Unit and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC), fire is the most devastating disaster, accounting for 70 percent of annual destruction. Flooding comes second at 11pc, affecting two million people each year.

Mr Bishow Parajuli, the United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Myanmar, told The Myanmar Times in a recent interview that Myanmar was better prepared for cyclones now that the government, the UN and NGOs were working together more closely on disaster risk reduction….

Vulnerable atoll nation plans seawall to block rising waters

The Economic Times of India: The low-lying Marshall Islands , a Pacific atoll chain that rises barely a metre above sea level, has announced plans for a wall to hold back rising sea levels. "We want to prevent erosion and stop flooding," UN ambassador Phillip Muller said at the weekend, launching an appeal for USD 20 million in international donor funds to get the project under way.

The full cost of the protective sea wall has not been released and Muller said the initial plea for donor funds is for detailed engineering work on the project. The vulnerability of the Marshalls was highlighted two years ago when floods hit the eastern shore of the main Majuro Atoll causing several million dollars in damage and forcing dozens of islanders to live in temporary shelters.

The Honolulu-based National Weather Service , a US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-supported agency, recently warned of possibly more severe flooding in the next two months. "The sea level should be similar or higher than those seen during 2008, when waves flooded parts of Majuro and other atolls in the country," the report said….

Laura Beach, the Marshall Islands, shot by Stefan Lins , Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.

UN helping Haiti to prepare for impending hurricane

South Florida Caribbean News: United Nations peacekeeping mission in Haiti is preparing to help up to half a million people in the impoverished Caribbean nation who could potentially be affected by Hurricane Tomas. Over the last 24 hours, the mission, known as MINUSTAH, along with the Haitian Government and relief partners, have joined forces to initiate contingency plans, mobilize stocks and identify gaps as the hurricane approaches, on top of managing the continuing response to the cholera epidemic and the devastating January earthquake.

“This storm could not have come at a more difficult time,” said Nigel Fisher, UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Haiti. “Although we have made some extensive preparations and prepositioned stocks across the country, some crucial supplies have been badly depleted by ongoing needs, particularly the response to the ongoing cholera epidemic.”

As of last week, the Haitian health ministry has confirmed 4,649 hospitalizations and 305 deaths due to cholera, with cases having been confirmed in three of the country’s 10 departments. Mr. Fisher said that the UN is scaling up distributions in camps and sending truckloads of supplies down to Haiti’s southern coast, “but we must now race to mobilize everything else we need.”…

Hurricane Tomas on October 20, via NOAA

Climate computer game lets you decide Earth's fate

Nina Chestney in Reuters: Ever wondered how one person could save the planet from the effects of climate change? A British-made computer game on trial release on Monday creates different ways of doing just that. 'Fate of the World' puts the Earth's future in players' hands, placing them in charge of an international environmental body which could save the world from the effects of rising greenhouse gas emissions or let it perish by continuing to rely on emissions-heavy fossil fuels.

Through different scenarios, players can explore options such as geoengineering and alternative energy sources to save the planet from rising temperatures, dwindling natural resources and a growing population over the next 200 years. A rough cut of the game will be followed by a three-month feedback period from players, with final release due in February next year.

Created by Oxford-based games developer Red Redemption, the game departs from more mainstream action games by using data from real climate models and advice from scientists and economists in Britain and the United States.

"Science data is often inaccessible and we are trying to put players in a position of power and connected with the issues," Gobion Rowlands, Red Redemption's founder and chairman told Reuters. "We are not pushing one particular agenda. There are a range of options, including nuclear power and renewable energy. We are not saying one route is the best route," he added….

Image by JohnnyMrNinja, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Experts and activists debate how to improve Africa's soil

Nico Colombant in Voice of America: As experts gather in The Hague this week for a Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change, a major issue concerning Africa is the importance of the continent's soil. Experts differ on the best ways to turn often parched and depleted land into fertile ground. But there is general agreement that it is an issue that needs to be addressed.

The director of the Tropical Agriculture and Rural Environment program at Columbia University, Pedro Sanchez, says, it seems obvious now, but, until recently, soil was not considered a priority. "In Africa, really, nobody was paying attention about this 10 years ago. Everybody thought that other problems were more overwhelming, problems of corruption, governance, land tenure and then technically, agronomically, the need for improved [plant] varieties," he said.

Sanchez sees the use of fertilizers as essential to replenishing soils. "The best way to do that is to start applying nitrogen fertilizers and phosphorous fertilizers in the places that are deficient in this element, and out of that, then, you begin to triple yields of crops, such as maize, or sorghum or cassava," he said.

Shannon Horst is a co-founder of the U.S-based Savory Institute, a non-governmental organization that works to restore grasslands and biodiversity around the world. She believes still too much emphasis is being placed on short term production goals and technological solutions.

"We need to be focusing on the soil and the health of the soil and so many of the current things [issues] that are being pushed focus on high-tech solutions where you manipulate seeds, where you manipulate fertilizer or you create monocultures. And, most of those practices do not result in producing healthy soil. And, so, many of the challenges that Africa is facing are related to the fact that its soils are collapsing," she said….

Camels and other animals trample the soil in the semiarid Sahel of Africa as they move to water holes such as this one in Chad