Media failure on Iraq War repeated in climate change coverage

Stephen Lewandowsky in Skeptical Science: "Iraq is developing a long-range ballistic missile system that could carry weapons of mass destruction up to 700 miles." Iraq is progressing towards "dirty bombs that spew radioactivity, mobile bio-weapons facilities, and a new long-range ballistic missile." An Iraqi defector "tells of work on at least 20 hidden weapons sites...

Those claims appeared in mainstream newspapers during the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. All those claims were false. ... A decade later, those media failures are relevant not only because of the war's six-figure death toll and because the Iraqi per capita GDP has so far failed to return to prewar levels, but also because they remind us that the media, including highly reputable newspapers, can sometimes get things quite wrong.

A similar media failure is arguably under way this very moment with regard to climate change. The most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded with near certainty that human economic activity is responsible for ongoing global warming, and some of the largest insurance companies on the planet have blamed the increase in losses from extreme weather events to climate-related disasters.

...One notable difference between pre-invasion reporting on Iraqi WMD and climate change is that, in contrast to the near-hegemony of war-supporting reporting (at least in the U.S.), the public has a broader choice now when it comes to climate change: While there is a large supply of disinformation that threatens the public's right to being adequately informed, there is also no shortage of actual scientific information, both in the mainstream media and beyond.

The diversity of sources empowers the public to select their information wisely, but it also provides a playing field for the dominant influence of people's cultural worldviews or "ideology", which can override even education. People whose core personal values are threatened by possible responses to climate change, such as a price on carbon or regulatory measures, are known to rely on media sources that are more likely to create confusion about climate change than disseminate scientifically accurate information....

Orwell plaque shot by Simon Harriyott, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Diplomatic cables reveal aggressive lobbying for genetically modified plants by US officials

Suzanne Goldenberg in the Guardian (UK): American diplomats lobbied aggressively overseas to promote genetically modified (GM) food crops such as soy beans, an analysis of official cable traffic revealed on Tuesday.

The review of more than 900 diplomatic cables by the campaign group Food and Water Watch showed a carefully crafted campaign to break down resistance to GM products in Europe and other countries, and so help promote the bottom line of big American agricultural businesses.

The cables, which first surfaced with the Wikileaks disclosures two years ago, described a series of separate public relations strategies, unrolled at dozens of press junkets and biotech conferences, aimed at convincing scientists, media, industry, farmers, elected officials and others of the safety and benefits of GM products.

The report offers a further glimpse of the power of the agricultural and biotech industries in America, after the supreme court came down on the side of Monsanto in its effort to enforce its patented GM soybeans....

Security risks of extreme weather and climate change

EurekAlert via Harvard University: Increasingly frequent extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, severe storms, and heat waves have focused the attention of climate scientists on the connections between greenhouse warming and extreme weather. Because of the potential threat to U.S. national security, a new study was conducted to explore the forces driving extreme weather events and their impacts over the next decade, specifically with regard to their implications for national security planning. The report finds that the early ramifications of climate extremes resulting from climate change are already upon us and will continue to be felt over the next decade, directly impacting U.S. national security interests. "Lessons from the past are no longer of great value as a guide to the future," said co-lead author Michael McElroy, Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies at Harvard University. "Unexpected changes in regional weather are likely to define the new climate normal, and we are not prepared."

Changes in extremes include more record high temperatures; fewer but stronger tropical cyclones; wider areas of drought and increases in precipitation; increased climate variability; Arctic warming and attendant impacts; and continued sea level rise as greenhouse warming continues and even accelerates. These changes will affect water and food availability, energy decisions, the design of critical infrastructure, use of the global commons such as the oceans and the Arctic region, and critical ecosystem resources. They will affect both underdeveloped and industrialized countries with large costs in terms of economic and human security. The study identifies specific regional climate impacts—droughts and desertification in Mexico, Southwest Asia, and the Eastern Mediterranean, and increased flooding in South Asia—that are of particular strategic importance to the United States.

The report concludes that the risks related to extreme weather require that the U.S. sustain and augment its scientific and technical capacity to observe key indicators, monitor unfolding events, and forewarn of impending security threats as nations adapt to a changing climate. The study recommends a national strategy for strategic observations and monitoring— including greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, ocean temperatures, and satellite observations of the Arctic—and improved forecast models. "Our critical observational infrastructure is at risk from declining funding," added co-lead author D. James Baker, Director of the Global Carbon Measurement Program at the William J. Clinton Foundation and former Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). "Without that knowledge, the needs of civil society and national security for mitigation and adaptation will go unmet."...

Boatswain's Mate 3rd Class Dustin Kang, from Dardanelle, Ark., directs all the flight deck evolutions for an SH-60B Seahawk assigned to the “War Lords” of Light Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron Five One (HSL-51) during flight quarters aboard the guided missile frigate. US Navy photograph

Mozambique's agricultural fortunes rest on a choice between Obama and Annan

Joseph Hanlon in the povertymatters blog at the Guardian (UK): Mozambique is a development paradox. Rural poverty is increasing despite high growth rates and billions of dollars in aid. Now the country has been targeted by two contrasting models of agricultural development. The Barack Obama model was backed by the G8 in Washington in May, while the Kofi Annan model was proposed by the Africa Progress Panel (APP). Which works better for the poor?

The APP, which is chaired by Annan and counts a former IMF head and a former US Treasury secretary among its members, is heavyweight and conservative. It says one of the biggest dangers in Africa is the growing inequality between rich and poor, which is creating a threat of social instability. In sub-Saharan Africa, the APP argues, "the pattern of trickle-down growth is leaving too many people in poverty". The panel warns that Mozambique is one of Africa's more unequal countries, pointing out that – despite having huge agricultural potential – the republic is a net importer of staple foods.

The APP report calls for "fundamental change" in both donor and African government policies. "Raising the productivity of smallholder farmers is critical," it says. "Smallholder agriculture must be placed at the centre of a green revolution in Africa." This will require more government action and more support for small farmers. Let's call this the Annan model.

The second agricultural model for Mozambique was agreed in Washington in May, when G8 leaders adopted a new alliance for food security and nutrition proposed by President Obama and USAid. The idea is to use giant agribusiness to end hunger in Mozambique and five other countries. The first project in Mozambique will be to support Cargill, the giant grain trader and largest private company in the world, to take 40,000 hectares of farmland. US officials say this will include some smallholder contract farming, which means Cargill will not make enough profit from the investment, so the giant transnational grain trader must be subsidised from G8 aid. Let's call this the Obama model.

The two models are incompatible. The APP report points specifically to the very large land concessions in Mozambique, and warns that "for Africans, the benefits of large-scale land acquisitions are questionable"....

Farmers in Mozambique, shot by Alan Meier, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

New international land deals database reveals rush to buy up Africa

Claire Provost in the globaldevelopment blog at the Guardian(UK): Almost 5% of Africa's agricultural land has been bought or leased by investors since 2000, according to an international coalition of researchers and NGOs that has released the world's largest public database of international land deals.

The database, launched on Thursday, lifts the lid on a decade of secretive deals struck by governments, investors and speculators seeking large tracts of fertile land in developing countries around the world.

The past five years have seen a flood of reports of investors snapping up land at rock-bottom prices in some of the world's poorest countries. But, despite growing concern about the local impacts of so-called "land grabs", the lack of reliable data has made it difficult to pin down the real extent and nature of the global rush for land.

Researchers estimate that more than 200m hectares (495m acres) of land – roughly eight times the size of the UK – were sold or leased between 2000 and 2010. Details of 1,006 deals covering 70.2m hectares mostly in Africa, Asia and Latin America were published by the Land Matrix project, an international partnership involving five major European research centres and 40 civil society and research groups from around the world.

It is the first time a comprehensive list of international land deals has been collected and made public. The database relies on a wide variety of sources – including media reports, academic research and field-based investigations – to add detail to a global phenomenon notoriously shrouded in secrecy....

A postcard from the French Congo depicting a plantation, around 1905

A US assessment of the geopolitical role of water

Office of the Director of National Intelligence: While wars over water are unlikely within the next 10 years, water challenges – shortages, poor water quality, floods – will likely increase the risk of instability and state failure, exacerbate regional tensions, and distract countries from working with the United States on important policy objectives, according to an assessment prepared by the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC).

The Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) “Global Water Security,” was prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and released by the ODNI today.

The ICA is based on a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) requested by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to assess the impact of global water issues on U.S. national security interests over the next 30 years. It is intended to support a greater number of policymakers who share the concern that pressures on existing water resources may exacerbate local and regional tensions, perhaps to the point of conflict.

The ICA also notes that, as a consequence of water challenges globally, the demand for U.S. assistance and expertise will increase providing the U.S. with opportunities for leadership and forestalling other actors from achieving the same influence at U.S. expense....

A splash in a puddle, shot by HTO, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

UK could be rocked by climate change far away

Environment News Service: International instability, disruption of essential infrastructure serving global markets and energy supplies are among the climate change impacts from abroad that could affect the United Kingdom at home finds a new report, published by Foresight, the government's futures think tank. In fact, climate change in other countries may impact the UK more than climate change at home, according to the report, "International Dimensions of Climate Change."

Professor Sir John Beddington, the government's chief scientific adviser and the project's director said, "Our world is getting warmer, and the UK's extensive international economic, political and cultural ties mean that the UK is at increasing risk from impacts of climate change overseas."
Professor Sir John Beddington and Vivien Life of the Foreign Office, launch the Foresight report International Dimensions of Climate Change, July 11, 2011. (Photo courtesy FCO)

International instability could increase as a consequence of climate change, either directly through extreme weather events and water system stresses, or indirectly as social and political systems in vulnerable parts of the world come under increasing strain, the report warns. The health of UK residents and the UK's role on the global stage could also be affected.

"The UK must not respond by becoming insular but instead broaden its international reach to tackle climate change," Beddington said. "This report is designed to help government consider how these impacts will be felt here in the UK so we can better prepare and adapt for the future."

Also, the UK has a moral, political and legal obligation to support certain regions that are particularly at risk from the effects of climate change, such as small island states which include many of the UK Overseas Territories....

Palace of Industry building from The British Empire Exhibition 1924, now used as a warehouse, Wembley, London, UK, shot by oyxman, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Guam, protecting reefs from the US Navy

Islands Business: Guam Governor Felix P. Camacho summed it up best when he said that the US military buildup “is the largest threat to coral reefs” on his island. Other Micronesian islands echoed his sentiment, which helped set the tone at the 2010 US Coral Reef Taskforce Meeting held on Saipan from September 15 and 16.

The US Coral Reef Taskforce is one of the foremost policy groups guiding national and international coral reef conservation. Among the major projects related to the military buildup in Guam that will impact coral reefs is a deep-draft wharf for transiting aircraft carriers.

The US Navy earlier chose the Polaris Point in Guam’s Apra Harbor as its preferred site for a carrier berth. But the Record of Decision for the Guam and CNMI military buildup’s final environmental impact statement, signed on September 21, noted that the Navy had deferred making a decision on a specific location for a transient CVN berth in Apra Harbor and voluntarily collected additional data on marine resources in the two alternative site locations.

Camacho asked the US Coral Reef Taskforce to help Guam come up with the best possible mitigation strategies for its coral reefs during the military buildup. “The members have the ability to direct resources to this important and urgent task, and techniques and strategies developed for Guahan could have future uses in other locations facing major development as well,” he said.

But Capt. Peter S. Lynch, commanding officer of the US Naval Facilities Engineering Command, said it’s not only the military buildup that’s impacting coral reefs, citing runoff from a construction site or wastewater treatment that’s not properly treated could create algae plumes….

Climate change may lead to new security threats

One of the depressing features of climate change discussions in the United States is how readily the talk turns to matters of imperial control. From Ariel Shapiro in the Santa Barbara Independent (California): Kenneth S. Yalowitz — former Ambassador to Belarus and Georgia and current adjunct professor of government at Dartmouth College — spoke last Tuesday at the Channel City Club on security challenges posed by the effects global climate change has on Arctic and Pacific regions.

“Climate change is bringing new and unprecedented security risks worldwide, and yet is another challenge to our international system and its member states which are already burdened with wars, terrorism, economic recession, poverty, and global health concerns,” Yalowitz said. “While water is always at the center of the problem, climate change has different manifestations in different portions of the world.”

In the Arctic region — where sea ice is receding rapidly — Yalowitz said new economic opportunities are presenting themselves in the forms of marine shipping and the availability of energy sources such as oil and natural gas. Over 10 percent of the world’s oil supply and 30 percent of the world’s natural gas reserves are in the Arctic. The melting ice, he said, has great potential for profit for the five Arctic nations — the U.S., Russia, Canada, Norway, and Denmark — but also could result in disputes over claims.

...Global climate change, he went on, may become the source of economic rivalries in the Arctic, but in the Pacific it could have disastrous effects. If sea levels rise due to increasing temperatures, many highly-populated Pacific coastal areas could be in danger of flooding and eroding, according to Yalowitz. The Indonesian capital of Jakarta with a population of 10 million, and two-thirds of the country of Bangladesh with a population of 140 million, are among the areas that could be devastated by even a slight rise in sea level.

…Drought is a major concern of global climate change as well. Yalowitz said the Indus River in Pakistan and India depends on Himalayan glaciers for its source, but the glaciers — like those in the Arctic — are disappearing. Although the two countries have successfully abided by the Indus Water Treaty for decades, cooperation could come to an end if water becomes scarce, Yalowitz explained. The two countries already have a contentious relationship, and both have nuclear arsenals….

The Arctic Circle, from the PCL Map Collection, Wikimedia Commons

Climate change a concern for national security, says US Navy official

Camille Tuutti in ExecutiveGov: The U.S. Navy is concerned about how climate change with rising sea levels could impact national security and military operations in the future, according to a senior Navy official. “We want to basically pace the threat,” said Navy Rear Adm. David W. Titley, who serves as director of the Navy’s Task Force Climate Change. “We don’t want to get into a tail chase over climate change, but at the same time, … we do not want to spend ahead of need, spending for things that may not be required for years or decades later.”

Titley said one of the investments the Navy will consider is how sea-level rises will affect its infrastructure. As an example, he mentioned Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean mostly populated by the U.S. military. Studies have shown that over the course of the 2oth century, sea levels have risen roughly eight inches, he said.

…As the oceans get warmer, they expand and cause the sea level to rise, Titley explained. In addition, the land-based ice that already is melting adds volume to the ocean. He acknowledged considerable uncertainty over the time line and extent of sea-level rise, but noted that leading climate scientists believe sea levels could rise as much as six feet by the end of the century.

When asked whether naval bases were prepared for stronger and more intense hurricanes, Titley said the impact a warming climate may have on tropical storm development is controversial and subject to much research. Ocean warming is only one component of hurricane formation, and other factors such as upper-level wind shear, may not support increased frequency and intensity, he said….

The USS Saratoga moored at the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean

Climate change challenges US military

Kevin Furey in the Billings Gazette (Montana): As a veteran of the Iraq war, I make an effort to keep track of national-security news. That’s why I read with interest the stories about the Department of Defense’s recently released Quadrennial Defense Review, a congressionally mandated assessment of the strategic threats facing the U.S. now and in the future.

One of the conclusions in the QDR was both groundbreaking and sobering: Climate change will play a “significant role in shaping the future security environment,” and it will be an “accelerant of instability or conflict.” This is the first time the DOD has officially recognized climate change as a serious national security issue.

…Scientists predict that many natural disasters, such as hurricanes, floods and droughts, will be stronger, more common and pervasive because of climate change. A report by the U.N. Environment Program states that global warming will lead to “major changes in precipitation patterns on the (African) continent, which could lead to food shortages and increased desertification.” Another study identified India, Bangladesh, China, Vietnam and Indonesia as countries with large populations in low-lying coastal areas that are vulnerable to sea-level rise caused by global warming.

We will also face an increased risk of armed conflict. As retired Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni has put it, “It’s not hard to make the connection between climate change and instability, or climate change and terrorism.” “We ignore these facts at the peril of our national security and at great risk to those in uniform who serve this nation,” said former U.S. Sen. John Warner, who now works with the Pew Project on National Security, Energy and Climate….

A US soldier from the Nemesis troop conceals himself with a smoke screen after an improvised explosive device hits one of his regiment's vehicles, October 2007, Baghdad, Iraq. Photo by Luke Thornberry

US Navy plots Arctic push

Ian MacLeod in CommonDreams via the Ottawa Citizen takes a dry Canadian view of US expansionism: The U.S. navy is planning a massive push into the Arctic to defend national security, potential undersea riches and other maritime interests. While the plan talks diplomatically about "strong partnerships" with other Arctic nations, it is clear the U.S. is intent on seriously retooling its military presence and naval combat capabilities in a region increasingly seen as a potential flashpoint as receding polar ice allows easier access.

"This opening of the Arctic may lead to increased resource development, research, tourism, and could reshape the global transportation system. These developments offer opportunities for growth, but also are potential sources of competition and conflict for access and natural resources," says the 33-page document, signed by Admiral Jonathan W. Greenert, vice-chief of Naval Operations.

"While the United States has stable relationships with other Arctic nations, the changing environment and competition for resources may contribute to increasing tension, or, conversely, provide opportunities for co-operative solutions," it says.

…If the recent surfacing of a U.S. submarine near the North Pole left any doubt, the navy's roadmap makes it clear the U.S. and other nations will increasingly flex military muscle in the resource-rich region, says a specialist on Canada's northern security. "The Arctic is transforming and everyone else gets it and they're not going to go away," Rob Huebert, associate director at the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary, said Friday….

On July 1, 2008, the fast attack submarine USS Providence breaks through the ice at the North Pole in the Arctic Ocean to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the first submarine polar transit by the USS Nautilus in 1958. U.S. Navy photo by Yoeman 1st Class J. Thompson

Drought stricken, Iran buys US wheat for first time in 27 years

Agence France-Presse: Wracked by drought, Iran has turned to the United States for wheat for the first time in 27 years, marking a setback for Tehran's search for agricultural self-sufficiency. According to a recent US Department of Agriculture report, Iran has bought about 1.18 million tonnes of US hard wheat since the beginning of the 2008-2009 crop season in June.

The number, which has been growing steadily all summer, already represents nearly 5.0 percent of US annual exports forecast by the USDA. The last time Iran imported US wheat was in 1981-1982.

"Number one -- they need to import a large amount of wheat," said Bill Nelson, a grains market analyst at Wachovia Securities. "If they need wheat right now, the US is the place to go." According to Nelson, Iran's wheat production has been hammered by several months of drought, with crop forecasts of roughly 10 million tonnes this year, about five million tonnes short of the country's needs.

…Although Iran is subject to a growing number of sanctions imposed by Western countries that want Tehran to suspend its nuclear enrichment program, these US grain exports, like those of medications, are "legal and encouraged," a State Department spokesman, Robert McInturff, told AFP. They require authorization from the Treasury because of a law Congress approved in 2000, the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act (TSRA), he noted.

…Analysts noted that Tehran could have used an intermediary, like Syria, to import US wheat to avoid having the sale recorded in official data. "Maybe the relationship between Iran and the US is not as terrible as it has been," Nelson said. In fact, a senior US diplomat took the unusual step of sitting at a negotiating table with Iranians in July. The United States is also considering sending diplomatic personnel to Tehran….

Tehran from space, NASA, Wikimedia Commons

US intelligence agencies fret that warming may cause instability

US News and World Report: U.S. intelligence agencies usually work hard to stay outside the political fray [what a novel statement!], but this week they waded firmly into the debate over climate change by producing an unsettling assessment of the national security implications of changing weather patterns.

"We assess that no country will be immune to the effects of climate change, but some will be able to cope more effectively than others," says Thomas Fingar, who heads the National Intelligence Council, which drafted the assessment, adding that sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central and Southeast Asia would be the hardest-hit regions. "However, the spillover—from potentially increased migration and water-related disputes—could have a harmful global impact."

The full report, issued as a National Intelligence Assessment, is classified, and officials say they are not planning to release it. The NIA is distinct from the better-known National Intelligence Estimates by being more speculative and relying more heavily on public sources. Both represent the consensus judgment of the nation's 16 intelligence agencies and carry great analytic weight in Washington.

Appearing before a congressional panel, Fingar discussed the report's findings, which focused heavily on the potential impact of climate change in the next two decades on agricultural production, severe weather effects, water resources, and the possibility of refugee flows from newly drought-ridden areas….

The symbol of the Roman empire, as rendered by Piotr Michał Jaworski (PioM _{EN DE PL}), who has generously released it into the public domain via Wikimedia Commons. Thank you, Piotr