Climate change may lead to new security threats

One of the depressing features of climate change discussions in the United States is how readily the talk turns to matters of imperial control. From Ariel Shapiro in the Santa Barbara Independent (California): Kenneth S. Yalowitz — former Ambassador to Belarus and Georgia and current adjunct professor of government at Dartmouth College — spoke last Tuesday at the Channel City Club on security challenges posed by the effects global climate change has on Arctic and Pacific regions.

“Climate change is bringing new and unprecedented security risks worldwide, and yet is another challenge to our international system and its member states which are already burdened with wars, terrorism, economic recession, poverty, and global health concerns,” Yalowitz said. “While water is always at the center of the problem, climate change has different manifestations in different portions of the world.”

In the Arctic region — where sea ice is receding rapidly — Yalowitz said new economic opportunities are presenting themselves in the forms of marine shipping and the availability of energy sources such as oil and natural gas. Over 10 percent of the world’s oil supply and 30 percent of the world’s natural gas reserves are in the Arctic. The melting ice, he said, has great potential for profit for the five Arctic nations — the U.S., Russia, Canada, Norway, and Denmark — but also could result in disputes over claims.

...Global climate change, he went on, may become the source of economic rivalries in the Arctic, but in the Pacific it could have disastrous effects. If sea levels rise due to increasing temperatures, many highly-populated Pacific coastal areas could be in danger of flooding and eroding, according to Yalowitz. The Indonesian capital of Jakarta with a population of 10 million, and two-thirds of the country of Bangladesh with a population of 140 million, are among the areas that could be devastated by even a slight rise in sea level.

…Drought is a major concern of global climate change as well. Yalowitz said the Indus River in Pakistan and India depends on Himalayan glaciers for its source, but the glaciers — like those in the Arctic — are disappearing. Although the two countries have successfully abided by the Indus Water Treaty for decades, cooperation could come to an end if water becomes scarce, Yalowitz explained. The two countries already have a contentious relationship, and both have nuclear arsenals….

The Arctic Circle, from the PCL Map Collection, Wikimedia Commons