Gulf swallowing Galveston faster than thought

Harvey Rice in the San Francisco Chronicle, via the AP and the Houston Chronicle: Rising sea levels are likely to cover the coastal highway on the unprotected west end of Galveston sooner than previously predicted. A 2007 study underwritten by the city of Galveston that anticipated rising sea levels would cover the highway within 60 years appears to have been overly optimistic.

The $50,000 geological hazard report was prepared for the city by geologists from the University of Texas, Rice University and Texas A&M University but then shelved. The report based its calculation on historic sea level rise and failed to include climate change. Sea levels are rising much faster than previous estimates that accounted for climate change, according to reports released in December by U.S. government scientists and in November by the World Bank.

"It's higher than the estimates they gave us five years ago," said Jim Lester, president of the Houston Advanced Research Center, whose scientists are experienced in coastal issues.

Sea-level rise may pose an even graver problem for Galveston than other coastal areas because the island is sinking at a faster rate than most other areas in the country, a condition known as subsidence. "If you assume subsidence will occur, that means sea-level rise will be even worse than in the rest of the country," said Stephen Gill, senior scientist with the National Oceanic and Aeronautics Administration, or NOAA.

Erosion and loss of protective wetlands are further eating away at the island, said Val Marmillion, managing director of America's Wetland Foundation. The island could shrink by one-third within 30 years, said Marmillion, whose organization based its conclusions on a $4.2 million study by Entergy of sea-level rise threats to the Gulf Coast....

Water in the streets of Galveston, around 1915, shot by Rex Dunbar Frazier

Protecting Houston from the next big hurricane

Terra Daily: To protect Houston and Galveston from future hurricanes, a Rice University-led team of experts recommends building a floodgate across the Houston Ship Channel adding new levees to protect densely populated areas on Galveston Island and the developed west side of Galveston Bay.

The team also recommends creating a 130-mile-long coastal recreation area to sustainably use wetlands that act as a natural flood barrier. The recommendations appear in a new report this month from Rice University's Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters (SSPEED) Center.

The report follows more than two years of research into lessons learned from Hurricane Ike, which made landfall at Galveston Island in September 2008. Ike caused 112 U.S. deaths and is the third-costliest storm in U.S. history, with damages estimated at $30 billion.

"Ike was a Category 2 storm, and Houston and Galveston stand to suffer greater losses from stronger storms, particularly if they hit south of Galveston Bay," said Phil Bedient, director of the SSPEED Center and Rice's Herman Brown Professor of Engineering. "As we studied this, we also met with leaders from industry and government to determine the most realistic and feasible way to protect lives and property from the next big storm."...

Airmen conduct search and rescue - Galveston Island, Texas, after Hurricane Ike Sept. 13, 2008. US Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. James L. Harper Jr.