Why is 'development' struggling to embrace uncertainty?

Lindsey Jones in AlertNet: The ‘development sector’ has long abided by one of its few universal principles: decisions are made in the context of a complex and ever-changing world. Whether seen from the perspective of delivering a government development plan or an NGO’s programmatic activities, each will have to respond to the myriad of changing future threats and opportunities. Doing so is crucial to success and sustainability in the long run.

Importantly, not only is the pace and scale of change in the 21st century ever apparent, but the drivers of change are increasingly interconnected.  Closer links between global and local markets, greater access to communications technology, and intensifying pressures on finite natural resources are but a handful of current accelerators of change.

Added to this, the impacts of climate change will interact with each of these accelerators and create an extra layer of complexity. Ensuring that development activities are governed by principles of flexible and forward-looking decision-making is therefore key. In theory this means that processes of decision-making are able to anticipate and prepare for future threats or opportunities, learn from mistakes, and have the capacity to accommodate for future changes (both known and unknown).

...Few development programmes have systematically incorporated medium-to-longer term risks and opportunities (say from 5 years all the way up to 100) into their day-to-day activities. Fewer still have ensured that the outputs and outcomes of their work are able to respond (and where necessary transform completely) in the light of changing climate and development pressures... 

Mameluke House in Cairo, late 19th century, from the collection of A. D. White Architectural Photographs, Cornell University Library