Arctic summer may be ice-free in 30 years

Independent (UK): The frozen ocean of the Arctic might disappear far sooner than scientists have previously predicted with the first ice-free summer occurring within the next 30 years – three times earlier than estimated.

A study of computer models of the Arctic region has found that the vast expanse of floating sea ice that covers the region is far more vulnerable to rapid melting than earlier studies had assumed. The latest analysis found that virtually all the sea ice in the Arctic will have melted during the summer months by 2037, and that it may even disappear as soon as the summer of 2020. Previous studies had suggested that this was unlikely to happen until at least the end of the century.

An ice-free Arctic would spell disaster for the polar bear which uses the summer ice pack to hunt seals. It could also increase regional temperatures because open ocean absorbs more heat from sunlight than the reflective surface of the sea ice.

The latest study was carried out by scientists from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Washington in Seattle using the six most sensitive computer models of the Arctic region. The findings, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, found that the ice cover was likely to melt rapidly in the next couple of decades, culminating in an open sea, except for a band of ice bordering the shores of northern Canada and Greenland….

Arctic ice pack from a plane, shot by Ashley Pollak, Wikimeda Commons via Flickr, under Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.0 License