…The LCRA, like all river authorities, uses complicated modeling algorithms to predict river flow during drought. Those water availability models, or WAMs as they are known in hydrological parlance, determine how much water the river authority can commit to one of the fastest-growing regions of
The forecasts are not foolproof. For one, they're based on a benchmark barely a half-century old: the seven-year drought
...Last April, the agency convened a meeting of water planners from
…Computer simulations of various rainfall scenarios show that the LCRA could supply its water customers even in a drought as bad as the one that plagued
…A drought that hit
Last year, Seager co-wrote an article for Science magazine predicting that the levels of aridity seen in the Dust Bowl and 1950s droughts "will become the new climatology of the American Southwest." The wet spells that allow river systems to recover from drought will grow shorter, he said, thus giving the lie to all water models based on 20th century data. "There's going to be a new mean climate," Seager said….
View of Austin, Texas, from Town Lake, which is a section of the Colorado River created by the Longhorn Dam, "Arvindn," Wikimedia Commons