Heat wave deaths may double within 50 years, says expert

Climate Ark, via Baltimore Sun: Global warming will cause the number of heat-related deaths in Baltimore and other cities to more than double within 50 years, according to a report paid for by environmental groups.

The number of summer days in Baltimore with temperatures above 101 is expected to rise from about six a year to 16 annually by the middle of the century, says the study co-written by climatologist Laurence S. Kalkstein of the University of Miami and a colleague. As a result, more people will die, Kalkstein predicts. About 48 people in the Baltimore area die of heat-related causes each year, and that will rise to about 141 a year, his report says.

The 2,232 additional deaths caused by global warming by mid-century will be the fourth-largest rise in 21 cities examined nationally, after New York ( 3,888 additional deaths), Philadelphia (3,528) and Chicago (3,192), according to the report, which was funded by the National Environmental Trust, a nonprofit group.

…Kalkstein's figures for current annual deaths are many times higher than those recorded by the state medical examiner's office. The agency has reported 18 heat-related deaths, including three in the Baltimore area, this year. There were about 40 heat-related deaths in Maryland last year, 47 in 2005, three in 2003 and about 50 in 2002, according to state figures.

Kalkstein said his estimates were higher and not meant to be "precise," because he was basing the current figure on a 30-year-average and using a broader definition of any kind of additional deaths that occur in warmer months compared with cooler months. Such deaths can be from any cause, including heart attack and stroke, Kalkstein said. The state uses a stricter definition in counting heat-related deaths…