Sea level rise risk exceeds forecasts

Theage.com.au: Sea level rise caused by climate change is likely to be greater and potentially more dangerous than predicted but scientists are reluctant to "stick their necks out" for fear of being labelled alarmists, an international expert has warned. Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, a key scientific author of the UN's recent report on climate change, has published a new way of projecting sea level rise from global warming.

His method points to higher sea level rises than published by the UN panel this year, adding to concerns that the panel report was too conservative. "This isn't just my concern. There's a number of scientists who were not very happy with the impression given in the summary of the report that sea level rise projections had dropped compared to the previous report," Professor Rahmstorf said.

Estimates of sea level rise in the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not include the full impact of the melting of the polar ice caps because too little is known about the long-term risks. "It was the ice sheet experts who were most upset," said Professor Rahmstorf, who advises the German Government on climate change. "They felt that those risks were not properly represented."

Professor Rahmstorf's visit to Australia coincides with a new study by scientists from CSIRO and the NSW Government warning that the state's coastal communities are likely to be at much higher risk from sea level rise and storm damage than previously thought. …Experts believe that for every metre of sea level rise there will be about 50 to 100 metres of erosion.

The local study is designed to support efforts by the federal and state governments for Australia to adapt to climate change. Given that almost one-third of Australians live within two kilometres of the sea, the study warns that uninformed coastal planning will result in big losses as the full effects of sea level rise are felt. Those impacts include increased flooding resulting in the loss of life and property, the destruction of coastal infrastructure, the loss of beaches and damage to wetlands….