Warming has already boosted insect breeding

Susan Milius in Science News: Summertime and the insect breeding is easy. That old song rings especially true for 44 species of moths and butterflies in Central Europe, according to an analysis by ecologist Florian Altermatt of the University of California, Davis. As the region has warmed since the 1980s, some of these species have added an extra generation during the summer for the first time on record in that location.

Among the 263 species already known to have a second or third generation there during toasty times, 190 have grown more likely to do so since 1980, Altermatt reports online December 22 in Proceedings of the Royal Society B.

Only a rough third or so of all the species Altermatt reviewed show the capacity to breed more than once a year. What warming is probably doing for them, he speculates, is jolting the insects’ overwintering form into action early and also speeding up insect development. These head starts may allow time for a bonus generation before a non-temperature cue, atumnal day length, plays its role in shutting down insects for winter.

“From a pest perspective it’s an important issue,” says population ecologist Patrick Tobin based in Morgantown, W.Va., for the Forest Service Northern Research Station. Tobin has studied a warmth-related extra generation in a North American pest, the grape berry moth. He points out that an extra surge of attacking pests in the growing season means yet another headache, expense and round of damage for farmers….

A monarch butterfly, shot by Inzilbeth, Wikimedia Commons, under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2

Conservation areas threatened nationally by housing developments

Science Daily: Conservationists have long known that lines on a map are not sufficient to protect nature because what happens outside those boundaries can affect what happens within. Now, a study by two University of Wisconsin-Madison scientists in the department of forest and wildlife ecology measures the threat of housing development around protected areas in the United States.

In a study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), Volker Radeloff, an associate professor, and Anna Pidgeon, an assistant professor, looked at housing around every national park, national forest and federal wilderness area in the 48 contiguous states. Using data from the U.S. Census and local sources, they counted housing units built within 1 to 50 kilometers of these reserves, and produced maps and statistics that document the change since 1940 and project forward to 2030.

In 2000, 38 million housing units were within 50 kilometers of these conserved lands, compared to 9.8 million in 1940, and housing was growing faster inside that 50-kilometer range than outside it. A house's sphere of influence extends beyond its own lot, because housing can encourage the spread of invasive species, alter drainage patterns and foster increased recreational use of the conserved land, which can, ironically, harm wildlife.

Ground-nesting birds are particularly vulnerable to houses and the dogs and cats they contain, as well as to the raccoons, opossum and skunks that are attracted to residential areas, says Pidgeon. The affected species in Wisconsin's northern forest include the ovenbird and black and white warbler.

…Another area of concern is light pollution, Radeloff adds. "People don't always think about this, but a lot of wildlife species base their way-finding on the stars or the moon, and a lot of outside light can be confusing and harmful."...

A mountain lion, shot by Malcolm, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.0 License

Venice underwater

Focus Information Agency: More than half of Venice was under water Wednesday as two days of driving rain helped push the acqua alta (high water) to 143 cm above sea level, a record for the year and the 11th-biggest since records began, Rai Radio 1 reported.

Venetians were getting about on pontoon walkways in the estimated 56% of the city that was flooded, including St Mark's Square and the historic centre. "As well as the rain, which played a big part, strong sirocco winds swelled the flood tide, combining to bring one of the biggest recent events", experts said. The first big tide of the year was on November 30 when the water rose 131cm above normal. When the waters get that high some 43% of the city surface is under water.

Next month, experts say, forecast bouts of more heavy rain could push the sea level to 150cm above normal, the highest acqua alta since 156cm last December, 158cm in December 1986 and 166cm in December 1979. The record acqua alta was in the great flood of 1966, at 194cm, when flood waters caused huge damage. Levels of 120-140 cm above sea level are quite common in the lagoon city, which is well-equipped to cope with its rafts of pontoon walkways.

But anything much higher than 150cm risks swamping the city and washing the walkways away. The high-water threat has been increasing in recent years as heavier rains have hit northern Italy due to climate change, weather experts say. Scientists have conceived various ways of warding off the waters since the catastrophic 1966 flood and a system of moveable flood barriers called MOSE is being installed after years of polemics. Experts say there are three main reasons for high water in the city: the rising floor in the lagoon caused by incoming silt; the undermining of the islands by the extraction of methane gas in the sea off Venice; and the overall increase in sea levels caused by global warming….

High tide in Venice, shot by Paolo da Reggio, who has generously released the image into the public domain

Drought to hit Uganda's cattle corridor

David Mafabi in the Daily Monitor (Uganda): The cattle corridor covers Karamoja region, Teso, parts of Lango, Busoga, Buganda, and western Uganda. It is a semi-arid transition that registers an annual average rainfall of between 500-900 mm.

The cattle corridor is expected to be hit hard by the effects of climate change unless the government adapts the recommendations that were recently made in the Climate Change summit in Denmark. The Executive Director of Uganda Land Alliance, Ms Esther Obaikol says climate change predictions by the meteorology departments of the United Kingdom and Uganda indicate fewer rains and greater intensity of un-seasoned erosive storms in coming years due to climate change.

“In order to limit the vulnerability of local pastoral communities arising from the sudden erratic climate changes, there’s dire need for greater risk-averting and coping strategies like mixed cropping, agro-forestry and the production of dry season livestock feeds,” she said.
Ms Obaikol said this can be boosted by the cultivation of drought-resistant crops and the establishment of woodlots in the cattle corridor.

…The area is highly vulnerable to prolonged drought alternating with floods and erratic rains. Productivity has steadily declined over the decades and poverty levels are high and the region has been described as a severe poverty hotspot….

Watusi cattle in Uganda, shot by Michel Sautel, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License

Carbon Based passes a milestone

Holiday laziness prompts me to to check my statistics, and I discover that Carbon Based now has 103,106 unique visitors. Many thanks to all!

A Canadian adaptation tool

Mary Lou O'Reilly in Canadian Underwriter: The Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) has been pressing the issue of Canada's aging water and sewer systems in recent years, particularly because of the threat of climate change and increased levels of heavy rainfall in key regions. However, many municipalities are overwhelmed by the sheer magnitude of the problem and the required investment. Should they invest in sewer systems? Wastewater treatment plants? Flood diversion plans?

In short order, they will have at least one part of the answer. The insurance industry is in the process of developing a risk assessment tool that municipalities can use to pinpoint the most vulnerable areas of infrastructure and direct funds accordingly. Insurance companies will also have the tool to rate and price property risks accurately.

…Insurers currently have fairly good retrospective data upon which to base their pricing. They can rely on claims histories to tell them at least part of the risk story. However, another part of the story can be told through the use of prospective data. For example, houses that suffered water damage in Hamilton were not located in a traditional "hot spot" for these kinds of water damage claims. It would have been very difficult, if not impossible, to forecast this event based on retrospective data.

The municipal risk assessment tool will address this "information gap" by collecting and analyzing key municipal data in the:
• age and design of sewer and surface water systems;
• maintenance and operation of those systems;
• urban development policies that influence system capacity; and
• topographical features like elevation and soil type, which affect risk and vary broadly within large urban centres.

…The municipal risk assessment tool is a vital project for the insurance industry, governments and all Canadians. It is one crucial part of what has to be a comprehensive plan to adapt intelligently to the very real challenges of climate change. There is a role for all levels of government, industries and citizens to play in this adaptation -- from representation at international meetings such as the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, to the use of powerful economic incentives to encourage change in consumer behaviour and individual responsibility (i. e. reducing water usage through things like rain barrels)….

A dog named Pima at the off-leash area at Cherry Beach, Toronto, Canada. The winter thaw had caused flooding. Shot by angelune des lauriers, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.0 License

Stormwater success stories on EPA website

Environment News Network: A collection of stormwater success stories on a new U.S. EPA website are intended to inform and educate stakeholders about the benefits of developing pollution reduction budgets, called total maximum daily loads, TMDLs, to protect and restore water quality in their own watersheds. The site provides both sound byte fact sheets that are one to two pages long, as well as technical fact sheets of four to five pages, that are representative of TMDLs prepared by states around the country.

For example, oyster lovers and residents near Virginia Beach, Virginia remember a time when oysters from the Lynnhaven Bay watershed were a delicacy served to dignitaries. But high bacteria levels in the Lynnhaven Bay watershed forced the Virginia Health Department to shut down almost all of the shellfish areas for decades, until recently.

Implementing the Lynnhaven Bay, Broad Bay, and Linkhorn Bay fecal coliform TMDL for shellfish areas has helped to reduce bacteria levels. Management actions targeted sources of bacteria such as boating activities, on-site sewer systems, agricultural areas, and pet waste to slash bacteria levels. As a result, Lynnhaven Bay watershed shellfish areas are reopening and Lynnhaven oysters are returning as an edible, marketable natural resource on local restaurant menus.

The new website offers fact sheets illustrating how stakeholders can get involved in identifying and cleaning up waters that fail to meet their state's water quality standards. The fact sheets show what benefits people can enjoy with cleaner waters, such as enhancements to recreation or better quality drinking water supplies….

Map of the Lynnhaven River area of northern Virginia Beach, Virginia, United States. Map from United States Geological Survey

Minorities, poor most vulnerable to hurricanes

Louisiana Weekly: A recent demographic study of the areas previously ravaged by massive hurricanes found that the people most likely to be affected by catastrophe tend to be poorer minority persons with household income and median home value well below state or regional averages.

“The data were conclusive; the people most likely to be affected by catastrophe in the regions we studied were disproportionately minorities, poor and living in housing that is substantially below regional or national averages,” said Peter J. McDonough, an adjunct professor at the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University, in New Brunswick, New Jersey, who conducted the study. The report was commissioned by Pro­tec­tingAmerica.org.

“The notion that catastrophe protection programs are designed to bailout the wealthy owners of beachfront properties is clearly not supported by any demographic analysis. In fact, this study suggests that quite the opposite is true,” McDonough said.

The report, “The Demographics of Catastrophe,” which was released in October, 2009, compared the statewide demographic profile of persons living in Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida and Texas with that of the U.S. population generally. The study also looked at data from cities and counties and compared that to state and national data. Those areas included Miami Dade County (FL), Orleans Parish (Louisiana), New Orleans, Louisiana and Gal­ves­ton, Texas.

In late May, researchers from the University of California released a study that concluded that climate change is disproportionately affecting the poor and minorities in the United States — a “climate gap” that will grow in coming decades unless policymakers intervene. The researchers said that while all segments of the human population are beginning to feel changes brought about by global warming — particularly with heat waves, increased air pollution, drought and more intense storms — the effects have disproportionately impacted the health, economics and overall quality of life of minorities and the poor….

Hurricane Katrina damage in Gulfport, Mississippi, shot by FEMA

Nigerian government says disaster risk reduction could help adaptation to climate change

Mam Ndegene Secka in Today (Nigeria): Madam Fatou Jasseh- Kuyateh, permanent secretary, Office of the Vice President has said that disaster risk reduction is a front line tool for climate change adaptation, noting that it is an intrinsic part of adaptation to climate change, therefore any discussion on climate change adaptation without reference to DRR would be incomplete.

She said this yesterday, while delivering the opening statement at a three-day orientation and capacity development forum for Regional and Municipal Disaster Management Committees on emergency flood preparedness and response, held at the National Nutrition Agency (NaNA) Conference Hall. The programme was organized by the National Disaster Management Agency and funded by the United Nations Development Fund (UNDP).

According to Madam Jasseh- Kuyateh, it is important that all staff of the National Disaster Management Agency embrace a more strategic and results-oriented framework, adding that the Agency has important responsibilities to undertake and the quality and dedication of its staff are important preconditions for effectiveness, efficiency and impact on the disaster management interventions.

In addition to the development of key competencies for emergency flood management and response, Madam Jasseh- Kuyateh emphasized the need for operational efficiency through effective coordination, proper disaster impact assessment and most importantly on report writing.

…She added that the important role of communities in any disaster management programme can also not be overemphasized, noting that the communities are often at the forefront when it comes to matters of disaster management. She said that identifying community vulnerabilities and undertaking community-based disaster risk reduction are the surest ways to guarantee sustainability of disaster management interventions. According to her, this will also serve to reinforce Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) gains at the local level….

Coastal hypoxia tends to increase as climate warms

Oregon State University News: A new study of Pacific Ocean sediments off the coast of Chile has found that offshore waters experienced systematic oxygen depletion during the rapid warming of the Antarctic following the last “glacial maximum” period 20,000 years ago. The findings are intriguing as scientists are exploring whether climate change may be contributing to outbreaks of hypoxia – or extremely low oxygen levels – along the near-shore regions of South America and the Pacific Northwest of the United States.

Results of the study, by researchers at Oregon State University, are being published this week in Nature Geoscience. It builds on a series of field studies by researchers at OSU begun more than a decade ago through the Ocean Drilling Program, led by chief scientist Alan Mix, one of the study’s authors.

The researchers focused their study on the influence of Antarctic Intermediate Water, a huge water mass that extends outward from the Antarctic, infusing Southern Hemisphere oceans with cold, highly oxygenated water – and extending all the way to the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate models suggest that these intermediate waters should have had higher concentrations of oxygen during the last glacial period, but scant evidence backed those assertions. However, the OSU researchers were able to use core samples through the Ocean Drilling Program to analyze sediments from three sites off the Chilean coast to calculate the dissolved oxygen on the seafloor.

…It is not yet clear what effect the findings may have on understanding of the offshore hypoxia events experienced intermittently in the Pacific Northwest over the past eight years. Other researchers from Oregon State University have documented patterns of low-oxygen waters – especially off the central Oregon coast. The worst of these happened in 2006, when oxygen in near-shore waters dipped almost to zero, killing thousands of crabs and other bottom-dwelling creatures.

Similar events occur annually off central Chile and the OSU research group is working with Chilean scientists to compare the two systems. Changing wind patterns appear to be to blame for the 21st-century hypoxia – and wind may have played a role 20,000 years ago as well. Previous studies by Mix of sediment cores off Oregon revealed more oxygenation of subsurface waters during the last Glacial Maximum – and, as warming followed the last ice age, the Pacific Northwest region also experienced intervals of hypoxia, he said….

Magellanic Penguin at a colony near Punta Arenas, Chile, shot by Alastair Rae, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.0 License

Early flood warning system for Himalayan states

Rina Saeed Khan in Dawn.com (Pakistan): The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) tried to bring together the various Himalayan countries (India, China, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh) on one platform at the recently concluded COP 15, although it has not been easy given their history of conflicts instead of cooperation. Pakistan is a member country and its villages in Chitral and the Northern Areas face increasing threats from climate change in the years to come.

They are particularly vulnerable to glacier outburst flooding and river/stream flooding as snow and ice melt faster than before. ICIMOD’s attempts to draw attention to this remote region have resulted in some positive actions and on Tuesday ICIMOD and the government of Finland announced that they had signed an agreement (dated 15th December) on a collaborative project to establish a regional flood information system in the Hindukush-Himalayan region.

Finland is providing a maximum of 2 million euros over three years (2009-2012) for the project which will be implemented by ICIMOD in close collaboration with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the six regional partner countries. The long-term goal is to minimise the loss of lives and livelihoods by providing timely warning of floods and thus reduce flood vulnerability in the region, which includes the Indus river basin….

The Indus River in flood, shot by Deeptrivia, Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

UK engineers race against time to restore utilities for Christmas

Luke Walsh in Edie.net: Cold weather has caused chaos to the nations utilities cracking pipes have left thousands of people without gas or power. National Grid engineers are gradually restoring gas supplies to East Barnet in London and Caddington in Luton.

The pipes burst on Saturday (December 19) and engineers are working to restore supplies, while EDF has managed to fix problems that left thousands of people without power in the east of England. National Grid said it had drafted in extra engineers as 1000 homes in East Barnet are without gas after a water pipe burst and flooded the mains. Terry Penny, National Grid's incident controller, said: "A huge amount of water got into the gas network and it is taking time to pump out, at present it is too early to say when all gas supplies will be restored."

Around 1300 homes in Caddington have been without a gas supply after water from another burst pipe poured into the village's gas mains. Engineers have started to reconnect homes, however there is still water in the gas mains in the south west of the village and engineers are not yet able to reconnect all supplies…

Shot of a gas main (probably not a British one) by Cyron Ray Macey, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 License

The connection between dams and precipitation

At the ASCE Research Library, you can find a recent piece from the Natural Hazards Review called “On the Empirical Relationship between Large Dams and the Alteration in Extreme Precipitation”: This study looks at the empirical relationship between the presence of large dams and the potential alteration in extreme precipitation patterns in their vicinity. The global analysis indicates that extreme precipitation has altered considerably more than mean precipitation during the last century. We found this alteration to be more pronounced during the postdam period where the 99th percentile of precipitation experienced an average of 4% increase per year in magnitude. While the density of dams within a given radius did not correlate tangibly with the change in the percentile value, the frequency of rain (average number of rainy days per year) was found to have twice as much correlation during the post-dam period than during the pre-dam period.

In general, dams in the regions of Southern Africa, India, Western US and Central Asia were found to have increased extreme precipitation more than other regions. It also appeared that large dams alter extreme precipitation patterns more in the arid/semi-arid regions more than other places. The study confirms that the impact of large dams on extreme precipitation is clearly a function of surrounding meso-scale and land-use conditions and that more research is necessary to gain insights on the physical mechanisms of precipitation alteration by dams.

What is needed hereafter to understand how a reservoir triggers changes in precipitation patterns and affects dam safety is a coupled land-atmosphere modeling approach. Due to the interactions of the atmospheric processes with surface water, understanding and predicting the effect that human-modified, flood-frequency behavior has on sustainable dam design and reservoir operations cannot be achieved by stand-alone hydrologic-hydraulic models as has been historically pursued by the engineering profession….

Glen Canyon Dam , Lake Powell, Arizona, shot by PRA, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Huge sewage lake threatens flood-hit Jeddah

Terra Daily via Agence France-Presse: Weeks after a devastating flash flood, residents of Jeddah fear that further heavy rainfall could bring a huge, brimming reservoir of raw sewage cascading onto Saudi Arabia's Red Sea capital. Until the November 25 flood submerged homes and roads, killing at least 120 people, every day a line of tanker trucks made their way from Jeddah, a city of 2.6 million with almost no municipal sewerage system, to Musk Lake in the hills 12 kilometres (seven miles) to the east to dump fetid loads of human waste.

Last month's deadly flood showed what could happen. Ninety millimetres (3.5 inches) of heavy rain falling on non-absorbent desert soils turned into what some residents called a tsunami-like wave that rolled into Jeddah, overwhelming its limited storm drainage system. Spillways constructed long ago were already overbuilt with housing, exacerbating the disaster.

Now, every day, Abdullah Saad keeps one eye on the cloudy sky over his home in the Samer district just east of the city, where he lives with his wife and four children. "Samer is just 12 kilometres from the lake, and if it rains heavily we will leave the neighborhood to protect ourselves from the sewage," he said.

"We have seen the death and destruction of nearby neighbourhoods and we are afraid of rain, not to mention the putrid water." The reservoir -- ironically named by locals after the perfume ingredient -- has posed a threat to the city for 20 years, said Ali Ishdi, a professor of ecology at Jeddah's King Abdul Aziz University, itself badly damaged by last month's floods….

The Medina Road in Jeddah, shot by Ammar shaker, Wikimedia Commons

Disproportionate effects of global warming and pollution on disadvantaged communities

Science Daily: Global warming, pollution, and the environmental consequences of energy production impose a greater burden on low-income, disadvantaged communities, and strategies to prevent these inequities are urgently needed. A provocative collection of articles on climate justice presents the global implications of climate change and its effects on human health and the environment in a special issue of Environmental Justice, a peer-reviewed journal published by Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

The entire issue is available online at www.liebertpub.com/env. This important series of articles emerged from a conference on climate justice held earlier this year in New York City, co-hosted by West Harlem Environmental Action (WE ACT) and the Environmental Justice Leadership Forum on Climate Change. WE ACT, an active participant in the climate debate and the environmental justice movement, compiled the special issue under the leadership of Guest Editor Peggy Shepard.

The articles explore a range of topics, including "The Environmental Injustice of 'Clean Coal'," by Stephanie Tyree and Maron Greenleaf and "Climate Change, Heat Waves, and Environmental Justice," by Jalonne White-Newsome and colleagues. The issue offers both a global perspective in "The International Dimension of Climate Justice and the Need for International Adaptation Funding," by J. Timmons Roberts, and a focus on more local concerns, including "Minding the Climate Gap: Environmental Health and Equity Implications of Climate Change Mitigation Policies in California," by Seth Shonkoff and coauthors, and "Best in Show? Climate and Environmental Justice Policy in California," by Julie Sze et al.

"Facilitating Climate Justice Through Community-Based Adaptation in the Health Sector," by Kristie Ebi and "U.S. Childhood Obesity and Climate Change," by Perry Sheffield and Maida Galvez discuss the implications of global warming on human health and on healthcare utilization….

In Rio de Janeiro, Favela Dona Marta as seen from Corcovado. Shot by Brian Snelson, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 License

Dar es Salaam is among cities facing climate threat

Mathew Kwembe in the Citizen (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania): Dar es Salaam is among 15 cities in the world which are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, a report released at the just ended climate summit here indicated. The report, published as a book titled “Climate Change and the Urban Poor” was released by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), an international research organisation based in UK.

The 15 cities - three in Asia and the rest in Africa -are all IN least developed countries (LDCs) with low gross national income, weak human assets and high level of economic vulnerability. But they account for only 3.2 percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Besides Dar es Salaam, other cities are in Benin, Mozambique, Mali, Mauritania, Malawi, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya and Senegal in Africa.

Other cities are Thimphu in Bhutan, Khulna in Bangladesh and Kathmandu in Nepal from Asia. The report says Dar es salaam, located along the Indian Ocean coast, will be affected by climate change predominantly by flooding, a rise in sea level and coastal erosion. In most cases, climate change has already affected large parts of coastal areas with wide spread erosion and flooding and that they continue to devastate vast areas of the coastal areas.

The conducted survey has established that a rise in sea level would aggravate existing ecological problems through increased rates of coastal erosion, more persistent flooding, loss of wetlands, increased salination of ground water and soil and greater influx of diverse pollutants.

The study shows that coastal erosion has been rampant in many parts of coastal areas in the country but it is more pronounced in north of Dar es Salaam. Kunduchi Beach and Bahari Beach suburbs have been eroded to such extent that heavy investment has been suggested to ensure their preservation….

The harbor in Dar es Salaam in 1906

Chile’s glaciers at center stage in climate change research and adaptation

Jeremy Valeriote in the Santiago Times via El Mercurio (Chile): Chile will be the focus of international attention in February when Valdivia’s Center for Scientific Studies (CECS) hosts an international conference of more than 150 experts on glaciers and climate change. Glaciers provide a first line for monitoring the effects wrought by climate change and there are some 4,000 glaciers in Chile.

Chilean glaciologist Andres Rivera – from CECS - was one of a team of scientists to publish findings this month confirming that the volume of ice in the Andes, the Alps and Alaska is decreasing, and that very few mountain glaciers in these areas will remain at the end of the century.

While not entirely new, the report helped consolidate previous data and was presented along with confirmation of decreasing ice volumes in the Arctic and Greenland contributing to faster-than-predicted sea level rise. Rivera’s work has helped put Chile at the forefront of climate change study. He is co-author of the chapter on global mountain glaciers for a report presented last week at the Copenhagen climate change summit entitled “Melting Ice and Snow: A Call to Action”.

In related news from the north, a new study revealed a surprise number of rock glaciers in the northern Chilean Andes. Over 1500 rock glaciers, 628 in the Aconcagua basin alone, have been confirmed by Catholic University geographers. The study was commissioned by the government’s water oversight agency – the DGA - to better understand water supply issues during Chile’s dry season.

Rock glaciers are difficult to identify visually because they are often below the ground surface and consist of more than 60 percent broken rock and other debris. They also move more slowly than normal ice glaciers, of which there are 3500 in Chile, and do not present the telltale crevasses that form in faster-moving ice.

Rock glaciers have a distinct advantage: because they are buried and less exposed to changing climate, they provide a protected source of reliable base water flow downstream during the dry season….

From NASA Earth Observatory: This detailed astronaut photograph shows the merged outlet of Penguin Glacier and HPS 19 into a fjord carved into the snow-covered mountains of the southern Andes.The large ice masses visible at image centre have a coarse granular appearance due to variable snow cover, and mixing and refreezing of ice fragments prior to floating free.

World must prepare for mass climate migration, warns an NGO

Terra Daily via Agence France-Presse: The International Organisation for Migration warned on Friday the world must prepare for a mass increase in climate-linked migration as leaders battled to save a deal on global warming in Copenhagen. "Climate change and environmental degradation are already triggering migration or displacement all over the planet," the IOM warned on the critical last day of the Denmark summit, which coincides with International Migrants Day.

Right now, "it is the world's poorest countries that are bearing the brunt" of the migration, said the Geneva-based body, calling for leaders to make "greater efforts, beyond Copenhagen," to tackle the complex issue. IOM director general William Lacy Swing said experts still struggle to measure the number of people worldwide who choose to leave or are driven from their homes because of climate change and environmental degradation.

But he said the IOM has established beyond doubt that environmental migration "is a growing trend" and that "climate change, demographic trends and globalisation all point to more migration in the future."…

Daumier's "The Refugees," 1848-1855

California taps Australia's expertise in coping with drought

Janet Zimmerman in the Press-Enterprise (Riverside, California): California's water experts struggling with drought and other supply crises are looking for coping strategies in Australia, where life has changed amid a 13-year dry spell and rising temperatures. A 10-person Western delegation recently toured Australian cities to get a handle on how the country has responded to its shortages.

Australia is suffering the driest period in more than a century of record keeping and scientists say it is most likely the result of climate change. The drought and heat have brought deadly fires and agricultural collapse, problems similar to what California has experienced on a lesser scale.

The tour group included Wendy Martin, the state's drought coordinator at the Department of Water Resources, who said she was struck by the effectiveness of conservation measures there. Water use is about 40 gallons per person, per day, including outdoor watering. California's per-capita average is 200 gallons. "We have a lot of room to improve, that was one of the striking messages," Martin said.

Some of the conservation measures that are common in Australia but still rare in the United States: rainwater tanks that capture water for gardens and toilet flushing; dual-flush toilets; dual house plumbing for recycled water; and water-efficient appliances in virtually every home, she said.

Water use outdoors, which accounts for about half of consumption, is also much more efficient. Residents use low-water native plants instead of grass and permeable pavement that allows water to sink back into the ground, Martin said….

A dry riverbed in California, from NOAA

Global temperatures could rise more than expected, new study shows

Yale University News: The kinds of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide taking place today could have a significantly larger effect on global temperatures than previously thought, according to a new study led by Yale University geologists. Their findings appear December 20 in the advanced online edition of Nature Geoscience.

The team demonstrated that only a relatively small rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was associated with a period of substantial warming in the mid- and early-Pliocene era, between three to five million years ago, when temperatures were approximately 3 to 4 degrees Celsius warmer than they are today.

Climate sensitivity—the mean global temperature response to a doubling of the concentration of atmospheric CO2—is estimated to be 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius, using current models. “These models take into account only relatively fast feedbacks, such as changes in atmospheric water vapor and the distribution of sea ice, clouds and aerosols,” said Mark Pagani, associate professor of geology and geophysics at Yale and lead author of the paper. “We wanted to look at Earth-system climate sensitivity, which includes the effects of long-term feedbacks such as change in continental ice-sheets, terrestrial ecosystems and greenhouse gases other than CO2.”

To do this, the team focused on the most recent episode of sustained global warmth with geography similar to today’s. Their reconstructed CO2 concentrations for the past five million years was used to estimate Earth-system climate sensitivity for a fully equilibrated state of the planet, and found that a relatively small rise in CO2 levels was associated with substantial global warming 4.5 million years ago. They also found that the global temperature was 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than today while CO2 levels were only between about 365 and 415 parts per million (ppm)—similar to today’s concentration of about 386 ppm.

“This work and other ancient climate reconstructions reveal that Earth’s climate is more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than is discussed in policy circles,” Pagani said. “Since there is no indication that the future will behave differently than the past, we should expect a couple of degrees of continued warming even if we held CO2 concentrations at the current level.”…

Photo from the National Park Service, Wikimedia Commons

India's wettest place 'lacks water'

Subir Bhaumik in the BBC: Once the world's wettest places, Cherrapunji is getting up to 20% less rain every year - and is suffering water shortages. Residents say their heavenly abode in the clouds is hotter and drier than ever before - and they blame it on global warming.

Cherrapunji - or Sohra in the local Khasi language - is located in the West Khasi Hills of India's north-eastern state of Meghalaya. "Never were there very big forests around Cherrapunji and many of those that are there are sacred to us," says Millergrace Symlieh, a senior member of Sohra Science Society.

"We never cut a branch in these sacred forests. So you cannot say this adverse weather change is our creation. We are affected by what's happening all over the world," he told the BBC. "This hot weather and less rain here is not due to huge deforestation or massive industrialisation," says Mr Symlieh. "We only have a cement plant near here."

Cherrapunji's weather office says the average annual rainfall in the town has dropped by about 20% in the last five years - though the trend started a decade ago. "It is basically since 2005 that we are often getting 800cm-900cm of rain in Cherrapunji annually - against the normal average of 1100cm," says one of the office's staff, Amit Chaudhuri….

A sign outside Cherrapunji, shot by RMehra, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Climate change will have severe impact on fisheries, warns FAO

Surinder Sud in the Business Standard (India): Even as the Copenhagen summit on global warming has concluded without finalising binding commitments to combat this challenge, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has said the fisheries sector will be hugely affected by climate change, jeopardising food supply and livelihood of a large section of the world’s population.

Some 520 million people rely on fisheries and aquaculture as a source of protein and income. For about 400 million of the poorest of these, fish provides half or more of their animal protein and dietary minerals. Many fishing and coastal communities already subsist in precarious conditions because of poverty and lack of development. Their well-being is also often undermined by overexploitation of fishery resources and degraded ecosystems.

In a statement issued in Rome, the FAO has said both marine and inland fisheries are poorly positioned to withstand the new problems posed by climate change. The former, particularly, may undergo major decline, as it is already facing multiple challenges due to over-fishing, habitat loss and week management. “Small developing island states—which depend on fisheries and aquaculture for at least 50 per cent of their animal protein intake—are in a particularly vulnerable position,” the FAO has cautioned.

Nearly 65 per cent of aquaculture (fish farming) is in the form of inland fisheries and is concentrated mostly in the tropical and subtropical regions of Asia. Sea level rise over coming decades will increase upstream salinity in the rivers, adversely affecting river-based fisheries as well, it has said….

Fishing in a rice paddy in Kerala, shot by Rhaessner, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Warming climate chills Sonoran Desert's spring flowers

Mari N. Jensen in the University of Arizona News: Global warming is giving a boost to Sonoran Desert plants that have an edge during cold weather, according to new research from the University of Arizona in Tucson. Although the overall numbers of winter annuals has declined since 1982, species that germinate and grow better at low temperatures are becoming more common.

"It's an unexpected result – that global warming has led to an increase in cold-adapted species," said lead author Sarah Kimball, a research associate in UA's department of ecology and evolutionary biology. "Because the winter rains are arriving later, they are occurring under colder temperatures."

Climate change is shifting the winter storm track so the Sonoran Desert's winter rains now generally begin in late November or early December, rather than during the balmy days of late October. Therefore seeds that require winter rains must sprout during the cooler days of December.

"Southern Arizona has been getting hotter and drier for the last 25 or 30 years, and as a result, the desert annuals we've been studying at Tumamoc Hill have been changing," said co-author D. Lawrence Venable, the UA's director of research at Tumamoc Hill.

…"Even though overall the winter growing season is getting warmer, what's important in this system is that the growing season is initiated at a later date under colder temperatures," Kimball said. "This demonstrates that the response of organisms to climate change can be unexpected."

Flower of a Fishhook Barrel Cactus (Ferocactus wislizeni) taken in Tucson, Arizona, shot bySusan Lynn Peterson Sue in az, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License

How little water is enough in Colorado?

Vincent Carroll in the Denver Post has a few sour thoughts at the expense of environmentalists, but he sees the issues the American west faces, even if he doesn’t like the likely outcome: Denver Water has this quaint idea that it should prepare for droughts. During the last one in 2002, after all, the agency watched as supplies for some customers in the northern suburbs nearly dried up.

So Denver Water has proposed expanding Gross Reservoir above Boulder — raising an existing dam by 125 feet, not building a new one — in order to provide a cushion for dry years and to meet future demand.

Naturally, some green critics are appalled by this prudent planning, and they are turning out at public hearings to denounce the project. Denver Water spends millions of dollars every year on programs to reduce consumption, but it's never enough for those who believe that "conservation" is the one-word answer to every resource question.

… Those who regularly oppose new supplies rarely get around to describing the ideal state of water conservation, and for good reason. In theory, we could squeeze urban water use by a staggering amount if we were willing, say, to charge exorbitant rates for lawn watering or simply ban watering altogether and force all homeowners to Xeriscape. ….Trouble is, while most of us don't mind being nudged into using somewhat less water, we don't want to be bludgeoned in that direction to satisfy the agenda of those who consider our urban oasis a sin against nature.

….With or without global warming, we're going to experience future droughts. Ironically, given that certainty, it actually would be foolish to wring every drop of conservation from the system now because then we wouldn't be able to adapt by cutting back in the face of impending shortages. The tool shed would be empty. Unless, of course, you consider a mass migration from the Front Range an acceptable coping strategy for a water shortage.

Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado, shot by Sascha Brück, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Place climate adaptation body in Caribbean, urge leaders

Anguilla News: Civil society leaders are calling for an important climate change body to be located in the Caribbean island nation of Barbados. Richer countries were urged to join developing nations in supporting the siting of the headquarters of the proposed Global Adaptation Fund in Barbados by Lelei TuiSamoa LeLaulu, president of the Island Nations Climate and Oceans Program and director of the Caribbean Media Exchange (CMEx).

"It makes all sorts of sense because island nations contribute the least to climate changing emissions yet suffer the most from its excesses through sea-level rise and extreme weather patterns which devastate islands and their fragile economies. So, we need to ensure the body set up to help small island and other developing nations cope with climate change is actually in the developing world."

The 44 members and observers of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) at the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen are pressing for the Adaptation Fund to be located in a small island country as an indication of the seriousness of the challenges they face with global warming.

Bonn has been proposed by the German government but island leaders point out the city on the River Rhine already has 17 United Nations institutions and question if it would be the best home for the Climate Change Adaptation secretariat, a body critical to the survival of so many island nations.

Dr. Noel Brown, president of the Friends of the United Nations, asserted, "those of us who observed its performance during the negotiations for the Climate Convention could not help but be impressed by the sophistication and eagerness of Barbados to find the right balance among competing and often conflicting interests. Since then it has been widely recognized as an island leader on the climate challenge." Dr. Brown, former North American Director of the UN Environment Programme, declared Barbados "will be a dynamic center for innovation and experimentation - a kind of laboratory in the adaptation field."….

Mushroom Rock on Atlantic coast, Bathsheba, Saint Joseph, Barbados. Shot by Postdlf, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Acid oceans, a neglected consequence of climate change

John Heilprin in the Associated Press: Far from Copenhagen's turbulent climate talks, the sea lions, harbor seals and sea otters reposing along the shoreline and kelp forests of this protected marine area stand to gain from any global deal to cut greenhouse gases. …"We're having a change in water chemistry, so 20 years from now the system we're looking at could be affected dramatically but we're not really sure how. So we see a train wreck coming," said Andrew DeVogelaere, the sanctuary's research director, while out kayaking this fall with a reporter in the cold waters.

Nothing in the treaty negotiations specifically addresses the effects of carbon absorption in the oceans on marine life, which studies show is damaging key creatures' hard shells or skeletons. Oceans absorb about 25 percent of the world's greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere from human activities each year, says a new U.N. report released at the Copenhagen talks this week.

….But carbon dissolving in oceans also forms carbonic acid, raising waters' acidity that damages all manner of hard-shelled creatures, and setting off a chain reaction that threatens the food chain supporting marine life, including the lumbering sea mammals along the 276-mile coast of the California sanctuary and the rest of the U.S. West Coast.

By 2100, the report said, some 70 percent of cold water corals — a key refuge and feeding ground for commercially popular fish that also are food for the seals and otters — will be exposed to the harmful effects. Ocean acidity could increase 150 percent just by mid-century, according to the report by the Secretariat of the U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity…..

Albert Bierstadt, "The Golden Gate," 1900

Kenya needs $3 billion to start climate war

Dave Opiyo in the Daily Nation (Kenya): Kenya requires at least $3 billion to roll out the first phase of its climate change response strategy. Environment minister John Michuki said this will, however, shoot up to $20 billion by 2030 as the war intensifies. Like other developing countries, Kenya has been severely hit by the negative effects of climate change and has been experiencing the worst drought in three years. Mr Michuki was speaking in Copenhagen, Denmark on the strategy the government will take to tackle climate change.

The strategy was developed following six months of consultations where more than 5,000 representatives of civil society, the private sector, media, indigenous communities and faith-based organisations, among others, gave their views.

The document says emphasis will be placed on key sectors of the economy which include health, agriculture, fisheries, tourism and energy. “We have determined what we must do to combat climate change. These are actions that must be taken immediately. This is an ambitious and comprehensive programme. It will not only address the adverse impacts of climate change on Kenya, but will also contribute to taming global warming,” said Mr Michuki.

According to the strategy, the government intends to build health centres for pastoralists and recruit 24,000 staff to boost public health services in the country. This was because of an increase in climate change-driven “nomadism”, cross-border migration and spread of diseases to new territories.

The government will spearhead the switch from largely rain-fed to irrigation agriculture and cultivation of drought-resistant crops. In the water sector, priority will be given to new dams and water pans and protection of catchment areas like the Mau. At least 7.6 billion trees will be planted in the next 20 years…..

The Ngong Hills in Kenya, shot by Rotsee2, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Flooding forces dozens to Florida shelters

Vicki Desormier in Disaster News Network: Winter is normally the dry season in South Florida. Tell that to the dozens of people flooded from their homes in Broward and Dade counties on Friday. Unseasonable rains pushed waters past overburdened storm drains into the streets, over lawns and into houses. Some reports showed flood waters in downtown Miami where residents walked knee-deep in water.

On Friday afternoon, the Broward County Chapter of the American Red Cross opened a shelter at the Police Department on Federal Highway in Hallandale Beach for those who could not safely return to their homes because of the water. Volunteer Ken Hernandez said that 39 people signed in as soon as the doors opened. More were expected as people returned home to find their homes inaccessible.

“It’s not the kind of devastation we find during hurricanes, but there are a lot of people who either can’t get to their homes because the streets are flooded or who have found water in their houses,” he said. “We are expecting a few dozen more by tomorrow.”

…Hallandale Beach and Aventura, north of Miami, were the hardest hit areas. As much as 14 inches of rain had fallen in those areas as of Friday afternoon. According to Aventura Police Chief Steve Steinberg, more than four dozen cars had been hauled from the streets by noon on Friday. The cars had flooded out and had to be hauled out of the way so they wouldn’t obstruct the roadway….

Image of a 1960 flood on Biscayne Boulevard in Miami. Some photo research is current, some is not

New pictures reveal rich Antarctic marine life in area of rapid climate change

British Antarctic Survey: New photographs of ice fish, octopus, sea pigs, giant sea spiders, rare rays and beautiful basket stars that live in Antarctica’s continental shelf seas are revealed this week by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).

As part of an international study on sea surface to seabed biodiversity a research team from across Europe, USA, Australia and South Africa onboard the BAS Royal Research Ship James Clark Ross sampled a bizarre collection of marine creatures from the Bellingshausen Sea, West Antarctica – one of the fastest warming seas in the world. Research cruise leader Dr. David Barnes of British Antarctic Survey said,

“Few people realise just how rich in biodiversity the Southern Ocean is – even a single trawl can reveal a fascinating array of weird and wonderful creatures as would be seen on a coral reef. These animals are potentially very good indicators of environmental change as many occur in the shallows, which are changing fast, but also in deeper water which will warm much less quickly. We can now begin to get a better understanding of how the ecosystem will adapt to change. Our research on species living in the waters surrounding the BAS Rothera Research Station on the Antarctic Peninsula shows that some species are incredibly sensitive to temperature changes. Our new studies on the diverse range of marine creatures living in the deep waters of the Bellingshausen Sea will help us build a more complete picture of Antarctica’s marine biodiversity and give us an important baseline against which we can compare future impact on marine life.”

BAS biologist Dr. Sophie Fielding studies krill — a small crustacean that is the main food for penguins, seals and whales. During the research cruise she found remarkable variations in species living within a relatively small area. She said, “Changes at the Earth’s surface directly affect the surrounding ocean and the marine animals living there. For example accelerating glacier melt, collapse of ice shelves and shrinking winter sea-ice all seem to be impacting sea life. We want to understand that impact and what the implications for the food chain may be.”…

Basket Star, Gorganocephalus sp. - This beautiful brittle star was filmed expanding its curly, branching arms out over about a minute. It was found with its arms intertwined with an octocoral. Posed here, it is able to filter feed on food floating by in the water above the seabed. From the British Antarctic Survey website

Climate change reduces areas of rainfall in West Java

Yuli Tri Suwarni in the Jakarta Post: Scientists at the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (LAPAN) have linked climate change to the gradually diminishing areas of rainfall in a number of regions across West Java over the last 100 years. LAPAN’s Atmosphere and Climate Applied Science Center head Thomas Djamaluddin said scientists had compared data in the first 30 years of the 20th century (1900-1930) and the last 30 years of the 20th century (1973-2002).

Based on the data, heavy annual rainfall of about 3,200 millimeters was occurring regularly in West Java in the early part of the 20th century in Bogor and its surrounding areas, including southern parts of Garut and Tasikmalaya, and spreading as far east as Ciamis, which borders Central Java. However, data on the intensity of rainfall in the last 30 years of the century showed that the only area in the province that experienced regular intense rainfall was Bogor.

“Residents in West Java should respond by adapting to the new phenomenon because water supplies during the rainy season have gradually reduced,” Thomas told The Jakarta Post in Bandung. Average annual rainfall across West Java has also dropped from 2,500 ml in the early 20th century to 2,000 ml today.

Thomas said the significant drop in rainfall could also take place in other areas in Indonesia. “We have to analyze how much rainfall has decreased in other areas, so as to determine steps to be taken in accordance with conditions in respective areas,” said Thomas, the 11th LAPAN professor….

If my Dutch is up to the task, I think this is a bamboo plantation in West Java. Shot from the Tropenmuseum

Food security in Bangladesh imperiled

Athar Parvaiz in IPS/TerraViva: Unless the world comes to its aid, Bangladesh says the vulnerability of its agriculture sector to climate change could spell severe consequences for its millions of people, who stand to lose their main source of livelihood.

"As a poverty-stricken and densely populated country, we cannot cope with these challenges unless we have a proper financial and technological support from the developed world," said Sabir Hassan Chowdhary, one of the delegates from Bangladesh to the Copenhagen climate talks, in an interview with IPS.

Describing Bangladesh as the most vulnerable country in the world to the impacts of the global environmental phenomenon, delegates from the country are making fervent appeals for international help to prevent further deterioration of its food and livelihood security in the face of frequent droughts, erratic rainfall patterns, cyclones and floods.

The low-lying riverine South Asian country, one of the poorest in the world, lies between the foothills of the Himalayas and the Indian Ocean. "Over the last few days in Copenhagen itself, a number of research organisations have declared us the most vulnerable country in the world to the impacts of climate change. Therefore we want the world to stand behind us to meet the challenges we are facing," said Bangladesh’s environment and forest minister Hassan Mamud.

…"We desperately need the world community to come forward and help us in adapting to the changing climate. And we would like to maintain that the adaptation funds, committed by the developed world, should be in the form of grants, not loans," he said. Mamud said 70 percent of such funds should be specifically allocated to the Least Developed Countries, including Bangladesh. "The whole population in Bangladesh is vulnerable to climate change impacts."…

Fishing in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh, shot by joiseyshowaa, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 2.0 License.

Bahamas vulnerable

Nikia Deveaux in the Bahama Journal: Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham told nearly 100 world leaders yesterday that The Bahamas is the fifth most vulnerable country to sea level rise and noted that further temperature increases would cause sea levels to rise, submerging 80 per cent of the territory.

Mr. Ingraham was giving his address at the United Nations’ 15th Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark. The prime minister said only a collective international response to climate change would ensure the safety of the most vulnerable countries like The Bahamas.

"A temperature rise of two degrees Celsius will result in sea level rise of two meters and will submerge 80 per cent of our territory," he said. It will drastically affect the health of our coral reef system; hence our strongest support for the AOSIS’ call for ‘1.5 Celsius to Stay Alive’."

….Mr. Ingraham noted that funding will be critical to the success of emission reduction, and added that funding will assist countries like The Bahamas in other areas related to climate, such as destructive tropical hurricanes.

"We ask the developed world to support the efforts of small, vulnerable states such as ours by increasing and simplifying access to financing to modernize our electrical infrastructure, produce smarter electricity grids, adopt renewable technology and implement environmentally sound planning and development strategies for coastal and wetland protection," he said.

"In particular, when funding mechanisms for mitigation and adaptation are agreed, special account must be taken of the vulnerability of small, low lying island states." Mr. Ingraham said he cannot overemphasize the urgency for the development of specific mechanisms so that the country can access new, innovative and environmentally-sound capacity building….

Earth's vital signs soon to go unmeasured as satellites fail

Lisa Palmer in Scientific American reports on a dreadful situation in space: Satellites aren't built to last forever, so it's not a big surprise that the third and last laser on NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) quit working on October 11, outlasting its designed mission length by three and a half years. Since its launch in 2003 ICESat has been a critical instrument for continuously monitoring how much ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland are contributing to the rise of the world's oceans and how much the swath of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is thinning—both of which are occurring faster than projected.

The loss of ICESat, however, is a signal of what the future holds for NASA's ailing Earth Observing System (EOS), which is dying just as it is most needed to inform decisions and policy on climate change. Today, 14 of the 15 satellites currently making climatic observations on Earth are far beyond their designed life-expectancies, with the exception being the Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM):

* Landsat 7
* Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)
* Quik Scatterometer (QuikSCAT)
* Terra
* Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor Satellite (ACRIMSAT)
* Earth Observing 1
* Jason 1
* Aqua
* Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat)
* Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)
* Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE)
* Aura
* CloudSat
* Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO)
* Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)

Several of these are expected to "go dark" in the next two years, robbing scientists of critical data needed for monitoring climate change and verifying international agreements, just as a critical mass of global players is agreeing that such agreements are essential to the future health of the world's people and economies.

…Planned replacements for Earth-observing satellites are inadequate, too. The various airplanes that carry the instruments for ICE Bridge, a stopgap measure until ICESat's successor is launched five years from now, have limited coverage. So, consecutive measurements for tracking global ice patterns will not resume until 2015, after ICESat 2 enters orbit….

An image of the Landsat 7 satellite from NASA

Egypt's climate change situation

Abdel-Moneim Said, in Al-Ahram (Egypt): As if Egypt needed any more problems, let alone a problem of the magnitude of global warming. We already have to deal with the consequences of a population explosion and the strains it is placing on economic and social development. We already live in a region that has more than its fair share of political tensions and military conflicts. But there is no getting around the fact that global warming is happening. We're stuck with it and must deal with its consequences.

…Egypt is among the 20 countries ranked most vulnerable to global warming. Among the scenarios predicted by climatologists is that global warming will hasten the evaporation of the Nile, leading to severe water shortages. According to a report by the Council of Ministers Information Centre, the anticipated rise in Egypt's average temperature by an average of 1.5 degrees centigrade by 2050 and 2.4 degrees by 2100 will severely reduce the productivity of agricultural land. More alarming still is the prediction that 30 per cent of the Nile Delta will be vulnerable to flooding. The densely populated Delta is home to two-thirds of Egypt's inhabitants. Also facing submersion are the industrial zones and commercial projects which have been constructed along 240km of Egypt's Mediterranean coat, with a hinterland 160km deep facing flooding from the sea.

Many experts also warn of the threat to Egyptian antiquities. The rising sea level would engulf a third of Egypt's coastal heritage sites. In Alexandria the Citadel of Qait Bey, Al-Chatby necropolis, the Roman amphitheatre, Anfoushi Square and the catacombs of Kom Al-Shoqafa could vanish. Further to the east, water will cover large parts of Rosetta, submerging many of the port city's historical buildings. Tel Al-Firma, one of the most important historical sites in northern Sinai, could meet the same fate, along with Al-Tina plain and ancient Biluzium, which contains a vast array of archaeological sites including Tel Al-Kanayes, Tel Al-Makhzan, Tel Al-Muslim, Tel Al-Louli, Tel Al-Mafraq, Tel Abu Seifa and Tel Abu Wasifa.

The Council of Information and Decision Support Centre report further concludes a 50cm increase in sea levels by 2050 would displace 1.5 million Egyptians in Alexandria alone. A UN Economic Cooperation and Development Organisation report estimates that global warming could lead to 3.5 million environmental refugees in Egypt. Other studies make grimmer predictions: from five to six million people displaced from areas vulnerable to flooding. On top of this, medical experts warn of the health risks of global warming, citing increased incidence of sun and heat stroke, malaria, pulmonary diseases, heart and vascular diseases and skin cancer.

It is a nightmarish set of scenarios. …. Is it foolish to suggest we begin setting the money aside, starting from now?

Satellite image of Alexandria, Egypt