Acting on disaster warnings: Don't miss the human factor

Sudhir Kumar in SciDev.net: The Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami of 11 March 2011 challenged global ideas about responding to disasters. It showed that structural defences alone, such as breakwaters, coastal dykes and tidal barriers, cannot provide protection from tsunamis of such magnitude. The events of that day also emphasised the importance of 'end-to-end' early warning systems (systems spanning all steps from hazard detection through to community response). A Japanese government study, published in the Japan Times in August 2011, has found that only 58 per cent of people in coastal areas of Fukushima, Iwate and Miyagi prefectures heeded tsunamiwarnings immediately after the earthquake and headed for higher ground.

Of those who attempted to evacuate after hearing the warning, just five per cent were caught by the tsunami.  The report's findings raise the question of why some people act on early warnings while others ignore them. 

As climate change alters the risks posed by extreme weather events, how a community responds to early warnings will be a decisive factor in how people fare in hydro-meteorological events, including cyclones, blizzards, heavy snowfall, avalanches, coastal storm surges, floods, drought, heat-waves and cold spells.

There are barriers to action. The first may be the technical language used by warning systems. Individuals and communities may not be able to understand the meaning of obscure terms such as 'Cyclone Category 4', or the significance of a given wind speed.

Even when a community receives a warning, people's perception of risk may discourage them from heading for safety. In 2008, for example, Myanmar's Department of Meteorology and Hydrology detected Cyclone Nargis at an early stage, but people underestimated its intensity and believed that staying indoors would offer protection from winds, floods, and sea surge. 

The early warning system itself may underestimate the risk, as occurred when floods struck Mumbai, India, on 26 and 27 July 2005. A subsequent fact-finding committee found a significant gap between rainfall forecast (between 65 millimetres and 124.9 millimetres) and actual rainfall (944 millimetres — the eighth heaviest rainfall during a 24-hour period on record). Several hundred people lost their lives in the flooding.... 

Glenwood Springs, CO, June 8, 2002 -- The evening sun barely penetrates the smoke and ash as evacuees flee West Glenwood because of the spreading wildfires in Garfield County. Photo by Bryan Dahlberg/FEMA News Photo

How our designs must adapt to a hotter world

Fastcodesign: …Envisioning what the climate will be like 50, 75, or 150 years out is the first step in adaptation planning. We then need to ask: Which activities will be affected and how? What policies will help us cope with predicted change in climate? What opportunities will emerge? How will the design of our cities interface with our new climate? We need to alleviate predicted negative impacts through systems-thinking and build resilience into the system.

Adaptation is more than a good idea. It is a must -- especially when considering that many populations that are most affected by climate change tend to have fewer resources with which to cope with changes -- necessitating the design of adaptable communities as soon as possible. In other words, moving to higher ground is not as easy as it sounds.

…The better we plan now, the easier it will be for us to sustain and prosper in the future. This new way of thinking spans the design, policy, and even global market trends for businesses. While it may not be a national priority at the moment, many local governments are already feeling the impact of these changes and preparing themselves to adapt to continued change in the future through integration with the development of long-range plans. For example, the Coast Guard has moved lighthouses and the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority elevated a water treatment facility -- both projects stemming from predicted sea level rise and impact on infrastructure.

Adaptation should not be considered a plan in lieu of reducing emissions, but as a parallel effort. The good news is that many strategies exist to help communities and our designs adapt and reduce emissions, by focusing on “using less” and working within real world constraints on natural resources and energy security. For example, if our plumbing fixtures use less water, then we are not as greatly affected by drought and if we move toward distributed renewable energy, then we will be less threatened by energy distribution interruptions…

Shot of Andy Goldsworthy's Storm King Wall by Brian Thomas, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported

Designing defences against climate change

Kara Santos in IPS: As the impact of climate change worsens around the globe, a disaster-resilient village is poised to be a solution for urban poor battling the constant floods and typhoons that hit the Philippines.

The concept village, submitted by Johanna Ferrer Guldager of Denmark, is designed around elevated housing clusters. Each house employs green building technologies, such as the use of sustainable materials like bamboo for the floors, walls and roof. Roofs are used as a rainwater collection system leading to a water conservation tank, while small gardens between houses ensure food production even in times of disaster.

The concept won the global architectural design competition dubbed Design Against the Elements (DAtE), which aims to build the first green, liveable, affordable and disaster-resilient village in the country.

A panel of international and local jurors picked the winning architectural design from among 119 entries submitted by professionals and students from 30 countries. "We were very impressed with the different ideas from all over the world," architect Eleena Jamil of Malaysia, who served as one of the jurors, told IPS.

Jamil, who designed a school made of bamboo that won the Millennium School Design Competition for disaster-resilient schools organised in 2008, said that the winner was chosen because of its sustainability and practicality. "The ideas in the winning design are very easy to implement but it considers a holistic approach. It considers the way people interact within the community and how they could grow their own food," she said….

Not an actual photo of the winning design -- just a treehouse

'Manila needs redesigning to survive climate change'

Philippine Star: Metro Manila needs to be reengineered to survive climate change. This was stressed by Sen. Edgardo Angara during the opening of an international conference on climate change titled “Engineering Resilience: Confronting Risks Beyond Adaptation” at Hotel Sofitel, Pasay City.Angara, chairman of the congressional commission on science and technology, and engineering (Comste) which sponsored the gathering of local and foreign scientists, said the redesign of Metro Manila can serve as blueprint for other places in the country also threatened by climate change.

He said the conference held early this week is “not just how to rebuild Metro Manila but also how to build cities that are sustainable, livable, environmentally friendly, and can cope with disasters that appear to be a regular feature of our daily existence.” He said strong earthquakes have been frequent recently, like those that struck Haiti, Chile, Turkey and Indonesia.

He also noted that Metro Manila and others like Laguna and Nueva Ecija came under water all at the same time from the incessant raining by typhoons “Pepeng” and “Ondoy” last October and September, respectively. Scientists have stressed that climate change will cause extreme weather conditions, like stronger typhoons.

Angara said the massive flooding showed the unpreparedness and vulnerability of a mega city like Metro Manila as well as the government and the society, in general, in coping with calamities. He said disasters are not unavoidable as there are new designs and new technologies that can help Metro Manila, Cebu, Davao and other places in the country cope up with natural disasters.

“We can do many things about it (calamities), not just engineering intervention but also good thinking – design thinking,” he said. “As many of the advanced architects and designers have said, design can make a big difference,” he said. “We need the advice of experts who studied this subject not just academically but seen it first- hand and tell us what are the best practices we can adopt here.”…

An 1851 map of Manila

The Netherlands respond to flooding with swimming homes

Deutsche Welle: Dutch architect Koen Olthuis says it's better for a country that's threatened by water to learn how to live with it than fight against it - an approach that is central to his work. The Netherlands are one of the most densely populated yet also flattest countries in Europe. The offices of Olthuis' firm are beneath sea-level, as is about a third of the terrain in the Netherlands. Water must constantly be pumped back into the sea.

"We pump away about as much water daily as Tokyo and its surroundings use in a year - an incredible amount," said Olthuis, who decided to specialize in water architecture. The architect and his team have developed a concept for their country's future: If the Dutch eventually have to allow water to take over some of the nation's coastal land surface, the wet area should be used for houses and apartments.

Areas threatened by flooding account for about five percent of the Netherlands' surface. Currently, they are protected from being overtaken by the sea through the use of dams. Keeping this land dry costs the nation billions annually.

Near The Hague, a joint public and private project called "Het Nieuwe Water" is underway, which foresees building 1,200 new buildings within the next eight to ten years. Some of these are to be floating luxury apartments. At present, though, there is little to be seen in the area - just a 2.5-kilometer (1.5-mile) slushy field occupied by a few homes, greenhouses and a pond.

"First we will build, then we will allow the area to be flooded," explained Paul van Zundert, an engineer, who will ensure that the residents do not encounter any problems once building begins. "That will be the biggest challenge that arises from this new dual approach to using the water."…

Climate change means review of heating and cooling needed

H&V News (UK): Building services engineers need to start preparing for the impact of climate change according to a new report by the Institute of Mechanical Engineers. Climate Change: Adapting to the Inevitable looks at how approaches to energy, building water, infrastructure and transport should change in response to the expected rise in temperatures.

One of the key arguments is that engineers must review their design parameters: “Resilience to extreme weather events will also need to be reviewed. “The current peak design data used by engineers when designing internal heating, ventilation and cooling solutions for buildings will need to be reviewed to reflect future scenarios.

“The structural design parameters will also need updating regularly to cope with predictions for increased flooding, subsidence, effects of heat on materials and resistance to rain penetration.” Master planning to stop heat building up in urban centres is also an issue. The report said: “Buildings adaptation is perhaps the area where most consideration of future climate change has already been made.

…“The understanding of street layout, building orientation, massing and location is critical in minimising overheating in and around buildings, and reducing risks of flooding. Lessons can be learnt from developments in existing hot climates and recent advances in the understanding of zero-carbon master planning from projects such as Dongtan in China.”

London skyline from the south bank of the Thames . The Swiss Re "gherkin" and the White Tower can be seen in the background. Shot by Italo-Europeo, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License

Green homes that can withstand cyclone winds for Bangladesh

Science Daily: Home foundations and frames built of a lightweight composite material that may bend - but won’t break - in a hurricane and can simply float on the rising tide of a storm’s coastal surge? Sounds too Sci-Fi? Maybe like something from the distant future? Well, the technology is closer than you think. A professor at the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) is set for six months of overseas research aimed at making it a reality, now.

UAB Associate Professor of Engineering Nasim Uddin, Ph.D., and his collaborators are behind the innovative work. Beginning Nov. 22, Uddin will spend six months in Bangladesh as a visiting lecturer and researcher at the BRAC University. Uddin will work to strengthen the university’s post graduate-program in disaster mitigation while he furthers his ongoing research into natural fiber-based composite technologies for low-cost residential coastal housing, engineered to withstand hurricane strength wind and storm surge damage.

…“Coastal people everywhere face serious threats, but imagine if we can build a home that would still be there after the storm,” Uddin said...Uddin said that Bangladesh is the ideal country for his research. The Asian nation is one of the most disaster prone and densely populated in the world, offering a unique opportunity to better understand the potential real-world applications of the tree-fiber composite technology in construction….

Jute might be a source for strong composite material (photo of jute warehouse in Germany from the German Bundesarchiv)