Preventing and resolving future climate and natural resource-related conflicts in the Zambezi Basin: A study of Bulawayo and Chinde Districts

Notice of a paper by Tigere Chagutah at the South African Institute of International Affairs: Long-term changes in climate are likely to increase a range of risks to human security, including the risk of violent conflict. The city of Bulawayo in Zimbabwe, and Chinde district in the Zambezia province of Mozambique have been identified as areas that are highly susceptible to future climate-induced conflicts.

Although it is unlikely that climate change alone will be a direct cause of conflict, research points to the fact that it is a conflict threat multiplier that will intersect with countless other factors, including the quality of political governance, which could make the difference between adaptation or confrontation.

Empirical work on the causal relationship between climate change and conflict in different settings has yet to produce consensus. However, climate change can be linked to conflict in various ways, including increased competition over reduced and uncertain water supply; increased competition over agricultural land in the face of reduced crop yields, desertification and rising food prices; large-scale migration as a result of sea-level rise, weather changes and loss of land productivity; and diminished capacity of governments to provide services to their people in the face of increasing poverty.

The paper reports the findings of a study investigating the dynamic relationship between climate change, natural resource management and the likelihood of violent conflict in Bulawayo, which sits on a watershed between the Zambezi and Limpopo drainage basins, and Chinde district in the Zambezi delta. The paper also discusses entry points for strengthening local capacity for conflict management in Bulawayo and Chinde. It ends by outlining a research agenda towards improved understanding of the climate change, natural resource management and conflict nexus in the Zambezi basin...

On the street in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, shot by Radozw, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Climate change threatens Zambezi dam projects

Madalitso Mwando in AlertNet: Ambitious multi-billion dollar dam projects along the Zambezi River, carried out by southern African countries seeking to boost hydropower generation, could turn out to be white elephants because of growing climate challenges, experts say.

Concerns that some African countries are responding inadequately to climate change forecasts are highlighted in a new report that warns that governments have failed to appreciate the effects of poor rainfall and of potentially devastating floods – both linked to climate change - on long-term dam projects.

The report by International Rivers, a non-profit organisation involved in the protection of rivers and the rights of communities that depend on them, says that the Zambezi Basin is liable to suffer most from climate change among 11 major sub-Saharan African river basins and will experience the greatest reduction in rainfall and runoff in the coming years.

According to the report, increasing extreme rainfall patterns could result in “uneconomic dams that under-perform in the face of more extreme drought, and more dangerous dams that have not been designed to handle increasingly damaging floods.”

The 3,540 km (2,200 mile) Zambezi, Africa’s fourth longest river, runs through nine southern African countries and an increasing number of them are exploring dam building on it, especially since the ratification of the Zambezi Watercourse Commission paved the way for member states to harness the transboundary river....

The Zambesi River basin, created by Worldtraveller, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Climate-proofing the Zambesi River

AllAfrica.com, from IRIN: The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has launched a USD$ 8 million initiative to help build the disaster resilience of 600,000 people living along the Zambezi river in seven southern African countries. The Zambezi River Basin Initiative (ZRBI) is a response to "a dramatic increase in the numbers of floods along the river basin" according to Farid Abdulkadir, IFRC disaster management coordinator for the southern Africa region. At 2,574 kilometers, the Zambezi is Africa's fourth largest river. Some 80 percent of the 32 million people in the fertile basin depend on agriculture or fishing.

…The focus of the ZRBI, launched on 25 June, would therefore be on disaster preparedness rather than post emergency relief operations: "The Zambezi Initiative aims to break this cycle; to help communities be prepared for these disasters, and to encourage them to take steps to reduce the devastating impact that they have on their lives," he said….

The Zambesi Delta, from the International Space Station