India's Gujarat state braces for Cyclone Nilofar

BBC: Authorities in India have begun evacuating tens of thousands of people as a powerful cyclone heads for the western coast. Cyclone Nilofar, categorised as "severe" by weather forecasters, is expected to hit Gujarat state on Saturday morning.

India's Meteorological Department has predicted the storm will bring winds of up to 130km/h (80 mph). Rescue and relief teams have been deployed and the army is on stand-by.

A super-cyclone in 1999 killed more than 10,000 people in eastern Orissa state. Earlier this month, Cyclone Hudhud pounded India's eastern coast, killing more than 40 people, causing extensive damage and prompting the evacuation of some 350,000 people.

Cyclone Nilofar is also expected to pass around 250km (155 miles) from Karachi, Pakistan's biggest city, local weather officials said.

Pakistan's National Disaster Management Authority has told officials to prepare to evacuate villages along the coast and close beachside restaurants. Authorities in Gujarat's coastal Kutch district, where the cyclone is expected to make landfall, have begun evacuating more than 30,000 people from the area, senior local official MS Patel told the AFP news agency...

NASA image of Cyclone Nilofar in the Arabian Sea, October 29, 2014

Rising sea, killing heat... study gives a scary picture for India's Gujarat state

KapilDave in Indian Express: An alarming rise in sea level coupled with rise in average temperature, erratic rains and floods, droughts, a change in crop pattern in large parts of the state are some of the dire warnings contained in a report prepared by Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority (GSDMA) after mapping climate change hazards in major districts of Gujarat.

The report, which is likely to be placed before the Chief Minister soon, is to be used in drafting a climate change mitigation plan for the state. The report titled, “Climate Variability and Climate Change: District-Level Scoping Study for Gujarat”, has been prepared with the assistance of Union Ministry of Forest and Environment.

It says the temperature will rise by 2-4 degree Celsius in Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Valsad while in other districts, it will shoot up by 2-3 degrees Celsius. The report says Ahmedabad will face exceptional rise in energy consumption due to increased temperature and will be hit by floods and vector-borne diseases. Coastal districts like Surat, Bharuch, Bhavnagar, Jamnagar, Kheda, Anand, Rajkot and Valsad will face sea coast erosion, ecological damage, loss of saltpans, frequent crop failures etc.

Kutch will face more frequent cyclones and floods while Mehsana and Patan will face serious changes in crop pattern, the report warns. It says the number of days when temperature will cross 45 degree Celsius will increase in the coming decades. The report says the government will need to reconsider the present industrial setup, ports and urban planning in coastal areas....

The beach at Valsad Tithal in Gujarat, shot by Ibhaviik, Wikimedia Commons

Will a rising sea sink Gujarat's business plans?

Jumana Shah in DNA India: The strength of Gujarat, its 1,600 km long coastline, is also emerging as a big threat for its development in the years to come. …. Even as investment worth millions has already been pledged at various strategic points across the coast, the Gujarat government it seems now is sincerely trying to understand the specific impacts global warming can have in these areas.

During his recent visit to Gujarat, union environment minister Jairam Ramesh had told DNA that planning for the future now absolutely has to be done with elaborate research on how Sea Level Rise (SLR) will impact it in years to come. “It is no more a question of if, only a question of when,” he said. This, he insisted, is despite the IPCC's projections of Himalayan glaciers melting by 2035 coming undone.

It is not without reason good reason that Gujarat is the only state as yet to have founded a dedicated department for Climate Change. At the risk of learning uncomfortable truths, a major study has been commissioned by the state government to map the vulnerability index of the coastal eco-system. The final findings of this study are expected to be submitted in about three years, but interim results are expected at the end of one year. ….

At a workshop on climate change organised recently by the state's premier research agency GEC in Gandhinagar, former ISRO scientist Dr Vijay K Agarwal told DNA that the Vulnerability Index will help in identifying places where development work could be undertaken and which areas would be harmful…

…A few minutes later, his presentation showed to a group of around 30 government officials some shocking satellite images seen here — a projection of how Gujarat will be affected by sea-level rise….
The state of Gujarat, it is projected, will result into three virtual islands — Mainland consisting of North, Central and South Gujarat; second island of a much reduced land mass of Kutch and the third, what we now know as Saurashtra. ….

A satellite view of Gujarat, via NASA

Gujarat to set up department for global warming

Gujarat Global.com: Gujarat has decided to set up a special department to tackle with the problem of global warming. This was announced by Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi in the State Assembly. Modi himself will look after the department which will prepare a comprehensive policy on issues related to climate change and global warming. The state will promote maximum use of green technology and the new department will function as nodal agency coordinating with different departments.

Modi said that comprehensive multi dimensional policy on climate change of Gujarat state will be prepared by the new department. This is first such initiative in Asia and sixth in the world, Modi said. He described the move as path breaking and an example of pro active governance saying that even in the developed countries, the concept was in nascent stage. The task of the new department will be to prepare comprehensive multi-dimensional Climate Change Policy of Gujarat State. It is to coordinate with all other departments with respect to Climate Change.

Gujarat has 1600 KM of coastal line. The department would undertake detailed and extensive research and survey with regard to impacts of Climate Change on coastal area. This would cover the possible impacts on Gujarat coast due to sea level rise, changes in agricultural productivity, new challenges to health and infrastructure facilities in the coastal areas and the measures that would be required to deal with them…

Nargole Beach in Gujarat, India, shot by Nichalp, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License