Delaware's new maps to show future flood risks

Molly Murray in Delawareonline: There's a new worst-case scenario for future flood riisk in Delaware – worse than the state's sea level rise maps, worse than flooding from 100-year storms plotted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. This mapping project takes that 100-year storm flood level and adds three feet to it.

So at the south end of Rehoboth Beach, the maps – not yet publicly available – show places that are high and dry on the FEMA maps in a 100-year-storm, but are inundated with water during that same storm once sea level rises three feet.

The new mapping tool is designed to help state officials plan where and how to build future roads, bridges, buildings and other structures ev
en when they aren't within a currently mapped flood zone. It can also be used as a tool during reconstruction and to avoid places where future flooding is likely.

"The new maps are not regulatory," said Susan Love, a planner with the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control. "They are for guidance." In fact, said state Environmental Chief David S. Small, there is no one within state government to enforce the use of the maps by state agencies.

Small and others stressed they were strictly advisory and had no impact on where local government and private landowners could or should build. "It doesn't mean we are taking your rights away," said state Planner Constance Holland. But, she added, "it is better building."...

The aftermath of a 1913 flood in New Jersey (near Delaware)

Sussex County in Delaware delays decision on proposed sea-level rise responses

Jeff Montgomery in Delmarva Now (Delaware): In a symbolic blow to state climate change adaption efforts, the Delaware county with most at stake in future sea-level rise forecasts abruptly declined to take any stand on the issue as a state panel approved dozens of recommendations for dealing with the threat.

Jeff Shockley, Sussex County delegate to the state’s Sea Level Rise Advisory Committee, said last week local officials instructed him to abstain from voting on any of the roughly 60 options developed by the group throughout a2½-year period. That move followed a skeptical response to the state effort by some County Council members during a briefing in Georgetown this month.

Despite the county abstentions, committee members completed recommendations that will go to Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Secretary Collin P. O’Mara after a final report-signing meeting in August.

The options range from broad directions to improve coordination among federal, state, county and local agencies and include sea-level rise in growth plans to a call for expanded public education and better collection of data on climate change indicators and sea-level changes.

Hours later, Delaware’s congressional delegation announced $20 million in National Science Foundation grants for science education and research at four Delaware higher education centers, emphasizing the effect of sea-level rise and soil contamination consequences. “This is another good step in understanding how the changing climate and human impacts on the land affect our environment now and for many years to come,” Sen. Tom Carper, D-Del., said in a statement.

Renewable energy technologies, such as offshore wind and workforce development, will also be targeted in the research, along with the development of new sensors for environmental monitoring. The grants will support collaborations involving the University of Delaware, Delaware State University, Wesley College and Delaware Technical Community College....

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Philadelphia District recently completed repairs to the Harbor of Refuge breakwater. The breakwater and the historic lighthouse that sit on top are listed in the National Register of Historic Place. The $2.6 million repair project involved placing 91 capstones, filling voids and pouring concrete. Reilly Construction Inc. and R.E. Pierson Construction Co. served as the contractors. (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers photo)

Report makes dire predictions for Assateague

Malissa Watterson in Delmarva Now: Future generations of Chincoteague residents and visitors who travel to Assateague Beach might see their summer getaway covered by the Atlantic. On Wednesday, Aug. 29, the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council unvelied "Atlantic National Seashores in Peril: The Threats of Climate Disruption."

The 77-page report presents findings on how climate change, sparked by greenhouse gas emissions, is causing high rates of sea level rise at the seven national Atlantic seashores from Cape Cod, Mass., to Cape Canaveral, Fla.

According to the report, Assateague is one of five seashores most vulnerable to being covered by the ocean in the next 100 years because its lands are currently less than one meter (3.3 feet) above sea level.

"This report makes clear that if we don't cut the amount of heat trapping pollution that we spew into the air, these special places that Americans love will never be the same," said Theo Spencer, senior advocate of NRDC's Climate and Clean Air Program.

Of all seven seashores, Assateague had the highest rate of sea-level rise, 1.85 feet, over a 30-year period. The report explains that Assateague is so susceptible to sea level rise because of factors like wave heights and erosion caused by storm overwash....

Assateague State Park, shot by Fritz Geller-Grimm, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.5 Generic license

Climate change puts US Atlantic coastline in cross hairs

Jeff Montgomery and Molly Murray in the News Journal (Delaware):  Shorelines from North Carolina to Boston are in a 'hotspot' for sea-level rise and will see water levels rise at double the rate of most places on the planet, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The doubling is largely because of a geologic double whammy. The treasured lifestyle of residents along the coasts of the Mid-Atlantic could significantly change by the time this year's high school graduates retire, scientists say.

The larger issue for taxpayers is where to spend money and energy attempting to hold back the ocean — and where to retreat and allow nature to take its course.

...Along the Delaware, Maryland, Virginia and New Jersey coasts, sea levels could rise faster and higher — nearly 1.5 feet by 2050 and 3.5 to nearly 5 feet by the end of the century, according to Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control and other federal and science agency reports. That could swamp tens of thousands of homes and businesses along the coasts and jeopardize big chunks of land along Maryland's fragile Chesapeake Bay.

With a higher ocean, saltier water would push farther upstream, especially in summertime and drought years, making it harder to dilute for public consumption. Water supplies for communities along the Delaware River to Philadelphia could be threatened.

Delaware is "extremely vulnerable," said Collin P. O'Mara, secretary of Delaware's Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control. It may be worse along the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

...Like Maryland, Delaware has barrier beaches along the Atlantic that take a pounding. But the First State also faces a different challenge along Delaware Bay, where farm fields and homes are already being lost to encroaching brine water, and inland residents find themselves inside newly widened floodplains....

Satellite picture (via NASA) of Chesapeake Bay (center) and Delaware Bay (upper right), on the central east coast of the United States.

Rising sea may prompt inland move for Chesapeake Bay

Nicole Dao and Stacy Jones in Delmarva Now via the Capital News Service: Rising sea levels and violent weather caused by climate change could force some people in the Chesapeake Bay area inland in the coming decades, said a migration policy expert. "If you look at any of the maps that show areas of the world that are low-lying coastal areas, the Chesapeake Bay always shows up," said Susan Martin, executive director of the Institute for the Study of International Migration at Georgetown University.

Martin co-chaired the Transatlantic Study Team on Climate-Induced Migration, a group convened to study how climate affects migration, which released a report Wednesday that says natural disasters like rising sea levels and drought will inevitably affect people around the globe. The study argues that policymakers should begin planning how to handle the resulting internal and international movements now.

…The bay has already lost 13 islands to rising sea levels, which could reach 17-28 inches above 1990 levels by 2095, according to the National Wildlife Federation. "The bay makes Maryland the fourth most vulnerable state for pollution," said Tommy Landers, a policy advocate at Environment Maryland. The state's exposed shores make it especially susceptible to damage from hurricanes, which the study said have been increasing in strength.

…Different environmental factors cause varying rates of migration. According to the team's findings, drought and rising sea levels lead to gradual migration, while last year's earthquake in Haiti and this summer's flooding in Pakistan caused sudden refugee movements. Martin said she's not advocating that people leave the bay area immediately. Instead, she said officials and residents should start planning ahead….

Delaware Bay and Chesapeake Bay, from NASA

Climate change puts Delaware estuary resources at risk

Leah Hoenen in Cape Gazette.com (Delaware): Key Delaware estuary resources, including drinking water and shellfish, are threatened by sea-level rise and must be protected, a new study finds. Increased salinity moving up the estuary could have a devastating effect on drinking water.

The Partnership for the Delaware Estuary, along with dozens of partners, examined drinking water, tidal wetlands and shellfish, specifically oysters and freshwater mussels. All three are key resources for the estuary; all three are vulnerable to effects of climate change, including warmer temperatures, higher sea levels and saltier water. The partnership released a report, “Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary,” Wednesday, July 21, detailing how those three resources might be affected by climate change and how people can adapt to help protect resources.
Prime Hook marsh dying »

The report says current mitigation efforts, such as reducing car emissions, will produce results in 20 to 30 years. But, the group warns, “no amount of mitigation will prevent the changes we will see between now and then.” One of the most serious concerns is the potential increase in salinity, which would affect all three resources highlighted in the report.

…The group’s report states 15.2 million people drink water from the Delaware River Basin. Keeping the drinking-water resource safe could become expensive if the water has to be treated to remove salt, according to the report. The Philadelphia Water Department’s Paula Conolly contributed to the report, which said drinking water infrastructure could be damaged or inundated by flooding, sea-level rise and storm surge.

Treatment plants and other water infrastructure are placed close to water resources, right in the path of flooding and storm surge, the report says. Scientists also worry that heavier precipitation and continued development could lead to more runoff, which delivers pollution to waterways and will degrade source-water quality….

Delaware Bay map by Matthew Trump and uploaded by Decumanus at en.wikipedia, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Rising sea levels threaten Delaware coast

Molly Murray in Delaware Online: At the height of a nor'easter last November, waves broke through the dunes at Indian River Inlet and flooded Del. 1. Further inland, at Oak Orchard and Riverdale, flooding was significant. And to the north, along Delaware Bay, the rushing water ripped across the sand, inundating the nearby marshes in many areas.

But here is the worst of it: "That is going to become the new normal," said Collin O'Mara, state secretary of natural resources and environmental control. O'Mara's staff, using sophisticated elevation data and specialized photography, has created a map of Delaware that shows the areas already vulnerable to flooding in extreme high tides. In addition, the map includes three scenarios for tidal flooding and inundation amid rising sea levels projections.

…The realization that Delaware is vulnerable -- even with a modest sea level rise projection -- prompted O'Mara to draft a policy that could impact how the environmental agency conducts habitat construction and renovation projects. "It's changing the way we do business," he said.

O'Mara's Sea Level Rise policy gives his staff 12 to 18 months to develop a vulnerability assessment for the agency's land and property holdings and assets, to identify the risks from inundation and to come up with plans to increase resiliency and adaptability. "It really is going to alter the coast," he said. "It's scary."…

A view of the Indian River Bay from Holts Landing State Park, Sussex County, Delaware. Shot by SheepNotGoats, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Sea-level rise threatens Prime Hook Refuge

Ron Macarthur in the Cape Gazette (Delaware): Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, one of the most unique ecosystems on the East Coast, faces an uncertain future. Damage from a series of storms and sea-level rise threaten to change the delicate natural balance forever in the refuge and nearby Primehook Beach. This is the third in a series which explores the problems facing the refuge and analyzes possible solutions aimed at stemming the inevitable tide.

In a recent visit to Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, Tom Alvarez was shocked to see how much beach and marsh have been lost. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service staffer from Massachusetts had not been to the area for more than 30 years. “In their lifetime people living there will see a progressive change. I saw it immediately. You expect changes, but you don’t expect the landscape to change so dramatically,” he said.

Gradual change could accelerate if current predictions of sea-level rise come to fruition. Some scientists predict that in as little as 75 to 90 years, large sections of the refuge – which today serves as a critical stopover point for an estimated 1 million migrating birds each year – could be under water.

If Delaware Bay water rises one-eighth inch per year, by 2100, sea-level rise would essentially wipe out more than half of the marshland, according to a model developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, known as the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Alvarez said the threat to Prime Hook and Bombay Hook refuges have placed them among his agency’s top five areas of concern nationally for sea-level rise and climate-change implications.

Today, the refuge is 15 percent open water, 47 percent marshland, and the remaining 38 percent is uplands and forested wetlands. A rise of 1.6 feet would leave the refuge about 65 percent open water and 21 percent marshland, leaving only about 14 percent as uplands and forested wetlands….

Snow geese at the Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, from the refuge's website

Delaware's storm-damaged coastline

Dan Shortridge in Delaware Online: The monster offspring of Tropical Storm Ida has taken a huge bite out of Delaware's Atlantic coastline, devouring much of the beaches, gnawing at the protective dunes and creating a huge challenge for the state and resort towns who are unsure if repairs can be done quickly enough for the summer tourist season.
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As the waters slowly receded Saturday, the extent of the damage from the two-day storm became readily apparent, with its teeth marks clearly visible in the 5-foot jagged drop-off at the dunes at Rehoboth Beach. State and federal officials will begin a formal assessment of what remains of the fragile coastline this week. Yet questions remain about who would pay for any repair work, how much it would cost and whether it could be done before the impact of another powerful storm.

"It's too early to ask," said Tony Pratt, the state's shorelines and waterway administrator. "By the middle of [this] week, we'll have better knowledge as to what avenues are open to us to explore." State and local beach officials have credited the dunes with defending their towns' homes and boardwalks from the storm's wrath.

Taking an opposite view is Orrin H. Pilkey, emeritus professor in the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University and author of "The Corps and the Shore" and this year's "The Rising Sea," which he co-authored. Pilkey said it would be a huge error for Delaware to ignore science and not plan for the inevitable approach of climate change and rising seas. He pointed to the damaging Ash Wednesday storm of 1962, when the Army Corps of Engineers erected a dune along the shore in Ocean City, Md., and issued an advisory to restrict development inland of the protective barrier. But homes and hotels eventually moved oceanside, on top of and across the dune….

Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, pre-storm

Is climate change cooking Delmarva hunters' goose? Biologist thinks so

Freddy Valencia in DelmarvaNow.com: On Thursday night in front of a small audience at Gander Mountain, Ed Perry, a retired U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biologist, gave a presentation on the impact of climate change on fish and waterfowl. For hunters and fishermen who are starting to wonder where all the ducks and fish have gone, Perry has an answer.

"The level of emissions that we are using today is skyrocketing, and it's something that affects every natural system," he said. "Every state has gone up at least one hardiness zone, and some have gone up two. For example, southern Pennsylvania's hardiness zone now is what North Carolina's was 15 years ago."

Basically, plants that were once growing in the South are now able to make their way further north, and because many lakes in the West aren't freezing over anymore, the migratory patterns for ducks and geese have changed drastically. At the level that we are now, there appears to be no quick fix either….