The forecast published Thursday follows two consecutive poor forecasts: In 2012, when more than twice as many hurricanes formed as had been predicted, and in 2013, when only two hurricanes formed after a spring prediction of nine.
A typical year, based on weather records dating to 1950, has 12 tropical storms, of which seven become hurricanes. A tropical storm has sustained winds of 39 mph; it becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph.
The forecast was released by meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Klotzbach said a predicted El Niño is one factor that led to their quiet forecast. El Niño, a climate pattern defined by warmer-than-normal water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes.
"The tropical Atlantic has ... cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high," Klotzbach said. "Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions....
The eye of Hurricane Wilma in 2005, from the International Space Station
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