Food insecurity means few would mourn the death of Doha

Jayati Ghosh in the PovertyMatters blog, from the Guardian (UK): Officials at the WTO and leaders of several governments have launched what is said to be a "last-ditch effort" to save the Doha development round of trade negotiations from what is seen as imminent collapse. Will it collapse? And does it matter if it does? Or in other words, what is the likelihood of such a deal, and how much would it benefit developing countries? The brief answers are: low and very little.

So far, the finger-pointing for the failure has been directed either at the US (in which domestic politics suggests little appetite for external trade negotiations), or the newly significant large emerging economies such as China, Brazil and India (that are less willing to accept what are seen as unequal terms), or the overall impact of the "Great Recession" (which has made more countries wary of trade openness that could undermine domestic production and employment).

One aspect that is less talked about is the impact of the WTO Agreement on agriculture and food security in the developing world. The apathy or even downright cynicism in such quarters towards a new trade deal can be understood if we examine this. Basically, many developing countries are now more food-insecure than ever before, and at least part of that can be related to recent trade patterns.

Global food prices have been very volatile over the past four years. They rose rapidly from early 2007, reached a peak in June 2008, then declined only to increase again from early 2009. In December 2010 the FAO food price index crossed its previous peak. In March 2011 food prices were on average around 37% higher than a year earlier, while cereal prices were 60% higher. Similar patterns are evident in global fuel markets, which have been further roiled by the unrest in the Middle East….