Do or dry in India

M.S. Swaminathan in the Times of India: The 2009 drought is a wake-up call about the uncertainty of monsoon behaviour in the emerging era of climate change. It brought home the point that weather prediction will be increasingly difficult. Our climate management strategy must be based on the premise that the frequency of drought, flood, unseasonal rains and high temperature will increase. This year, Assam, which normally only faces floods, was almost the first state to declare drought. Global warming will make the Indian monsoon more variable and less predictable. We must do everything possible to strengthen the Indian meteorological department and climate change research.

Another urgent need is a "weather information for all" programme that involves setting up mini agro-met stations in each block with basic instruments to measure temperature, rainfall, wind speed and relative humidity. We should train one woman and one male member of every panchayat as climate risk managers. Well versed in data collection and interpretation, they can assist farmers to take timely location-specific decisions. We should aim to train half a million climate risk managers over the next three years.

Proactive steps are needed to strengthen our coping capacity to meet the impact of drought, flood and sea level rise in coastal areas. We should prepare to deal with monsoon failure and acute water and energy shortage by building weather-resilient water, food and livelihood security systems. Drought, flood and good weather codes based on inter-disciplinary analysis will be needed. The drought code can indicate how adverse impact can be minimised through crop life saving techniques, water conservation and efficient use. The flood code should indicate steps to revive farm and other livelihood activities when flood recedes. A good weather code would indicate methods of maximising the benefits of a good monsoon, to build up substantial grain reserves…..