Reducing vulnerability through a better understanding of migration and adaptation in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh

Jon Lawn and Michele Leone in the Dhaka Tribune (Bangladesh): An abundance of scientific evidence shows that the people living in deltas have an increased vulnerability to sea-level rise and effects of climate change. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that low-latitude and less developed areas generally face greater risk, for example in dry areas and mega-deltas. These risks increase vulnerability of specific groups such as the poor.

The poor and vulnerable have migrated in different forms to cope with the disruptions climatic changes has brought upon their lives. Research is crucial to understanding the suitability of migration as an adaptation option to the threats of climate change, and the implications migration has on society and the environment. There is a new project tackling these issues in Bangladesh: a research collaboration between the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) and the University of Southampton in the UK, which is part of a larger initiative studying migration and adaptation across Africa and South Asia.

The “Deltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation” (DECCMA) project is a five-year long program of applied research which started in early 2014, focusing on the potential and limits of adaptation options in deltaic environments.  The project will analyse the impacts of climate change and changes in other environmental  pressures (such as demand for agriculture or damming rivers) across three contrasting deltas: The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna in both Bangladesh and West Bengal, the Mahanadi delta in India, and the Volta delta in Ghana. The University of Southampton provides the overall leadon the project, partnering with BUET, Jadavpur University in Kolkata, India and the University of Ghana, who lead research in the delta study sites.

We aim to understand the effectiveness of adaptation options for individuals and communities in the coastal zone of the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta, whilst also evaluating the potential for migration to be an active and positive response to climate change. Ultimately, the project team anticipates that the uptake of a robust scientific evidence base for decision-makers and practitioners will lead to improved livelihoods and reductions in poverty in delta regions....

An outline map of the Ganges Delta by John Oldale, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Egypt's generals face watery battle

Shelly Kittleson in IPS: Heavy reliance on water intensive crops, a major upstream dam project for the Nile basin, and rising groundwater levels pushing at pharaoh-era monuments will be pressing issues for the next Egyptian president – whether military or civilian.

As criticism continues over the military’s heavy-handedness to quell protests, little attention is being given to the late January announcement by Egypt’s minister of irrigation and water resources on the growing severity of the country’s water shortage: share of water per citizen stands at 640 cubic metres, compared with an international standard of 1,000.

The minister said he expected this amount to decrease to 370 cubic metres by 2050 due to a rapidly growing population. A scientist working in the water resources sector expressed cautious hope to IPS that “the military is one of the few institutions that can actually get things done.” But he added: “That said, they were in power for a long time and didn’t do anything.”

Improving irrigation practices and countering the demographic explosion are some of the most commonly cited actions to be considered, as well as reducing the use of pesticides and improving sewage and waste disposal systems to prevent contaminating the limited water supplies available.

...Egypt’s agriculture sector consumes well over 80 percent of the country’s annual water resources and sugarcane accounts for a large portion, alongside rice and cotton. Rice production has been banned by the government in some areas for its heavy water requirements, though it commands a high price on the international market, is a staple for the population, and a certain quantity helps control soil salinity and limits saltwater intrusion in the Delta....

Irrigation in the Egyptian desert, shot by David Monniaux and Mai-Linh Doan, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Nile Delta disappearing beneath the sea

IPS: …Spread over 25,000 kilometres, the densely populated Nile Delta is the breadbasket of Egypt, accounting for two-thirds of the country’s agricultural production and home to 40 million people. Its northern flank, running 240 kilometres from Alexandria to Port Said, is one of the most vulnerable coastlines in the world, facing the triple threat of coastal erosion, saltwater infiltration, and rising sea levels.

According to Khaled Ouda, a geologist at Assiut University, a 30 centimetres rise in sea level would inundate 6,000 square kilometres of the Nile Delta. The flooding would create islands out of an additional 2,000 square kilometres of elevated land, isolating towns, roads, fields, and industrial facilities.

“The total (area of the Delta) expected to be impacted by a rising of the sea level by one metre during this century will be 8,033 square kilometres, which is nearly 33 percent of the total area of the Nile Delta,” Ouda told IPS.

In a report released last September, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a sea level rise of 28 to 98 centimetres by 2100, more than twice its 2007 projections. Even by the most conservative estimate, this would destroy 12.5 percent of Egypt’s cultivated areas and displace about eight million people, or nearly 10 percent of the population…..

NASA image of the Nile Delta

Rising sea levels put Mekong Delta at risk

Vietnam Net Bridge: This is revealed in a World Bank report titled Turn down the heat: Climate extremes, regional impacts and the case for resilience, which was released globally last week. The report said the rapid rise would mean a loss of about 12 per cent of crop production due to inundation and salinity intrusion. It was projected that rice production could drop by about 2.6 million tonnes per year.

The report said the Mekong Delta and two other Asian river deltas in Asia were particularly at risk because they were less than two metres above sea level. It said that rising sea levels, more intense tropical cyclones and land subsidence caused by human activities, would disrupt the main economic activities of the delta - agriculture, aquaculture, fisheries and tourism.

The Washington-based development bank estimated the cost of adapting shrimp and catfish aquaculture in the Mekong Delta would range from US$130-190 million per year. HCM City was also declared to be among coastal cities in Southeast Asia hardest hit by rising seas and increased storm surges. The report claimed that up to 60 per cent of the built-up area could expect rises of up to one metre.

Ajali Acharya, the World Bank Viet Nam's environment cluster leader, said the report provided scientific evidences on which Viet Nam and development partners could help the country move along the low-carbon, climate-resilient, sustainable-development path.

Tran Thuc, director of Viet Nam's Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment, agreed with the World Bank's recommendation that Southeast Asian countries intensify actions to address the impacts of climate change. He said Viet Nam had made remarkable efforts, with short-term priority going to climate adaptation...

Across the river from Ho Chi Minh City, shot by Violetbonmua, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Mekong Delta: No common voice found yet in adapting to climate change

Vietnam Net Bridge: Vietnam is an agriculture economy with 70 percent of its territory in urban area and 75 percent of population earning their living on rice fields. The agriculture production makes up tens of billions of dollars to the export turnover. However, the production has been threatened by the climate change.

Kosei Hashiguchi from JICA (the Japan International Cooperation Agency) said at a workshop on the response to the climate change in late January 2013 that the seven coastal provinces in Mekong Delta would be most seriously affected by the saltwater intrusion and sea water rise.

The seven provinces include Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Vinh Long, Soc Trang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau and Kien Giang. According to the expert, the temperature in Mekong Delta has increased by 0.5-0.9oC over the last 30 years. Meanwhile, in the future, the temperature would increase by 0.2-0.3oC more every decade.

As for the sea water rise, the water level has increased by five centimeters over the last 10 years, while it is expected to rise by 8 centimeters in every 10 years. The temperature increase would lead to the decrease in the rice productivity. The rice yield would decrease by 10 percent by 2030, by 15 percent by 2050 and 25 percent by 2100.

Meanwhile, Do Minh Nhut, Deputy Director of the Kien Giang provincial agriculture department, said the saltwater intrusion and sea water rise would influence 1/3 of the total rice field area in the province, estimated at 100,000 hectares.

JICA has predicted that most provinces in Mekong Delta would be influenced by the climate change, and that Ca Mau alone would suffer the damage worth VND16 trillion a year due to the climate change by 2100....

Life on the Mekong Delta, in Cai Be, shot by Milei.vencel, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

Climate change threatens Botswana's main tourist attraction

Justice Kavahematui in SciDev.net: Botswana urgently needs policies to facilitate climate change adaptation to protect the Okavango Delta, the country's most lucrative tourist attraction, according to a new study.   Recent statistics from the Bank of Botswana show that tourism is the country's second largest source of income, contributing US$753 million to GDP in 2011. The Delta is one of the most popular destinations for visitors to the country.

Wame L. Hambira, from the Department of Environmental Science at the University of Botswana in Gaborone, warned that unless government policies take account of current and forecasted climate shifts, the tourism sector could be badly damaged, with serious implications for the wider economy. Hambira's findings appeared in a study published in the International Journal of Tourism Policy [1].

The Okavango Delta is home to many plant and animal species. Tourism activities conducted there include safaris, bird-watching, traditional canoeing, photography tours and camping expeditions. The delta is also used by local communities for water, fishing,  agriculture, and the production of cultural artefacts such as baskets and beads, Hambira told SciDev.Net.

But the distribution of water channels and flooding patterns are shifting, she said.   Such shifts, and threats posed by climate change — including a predicted drop in total annual rainfall, especially in the north where the delta is located — are not adequately addressed by Botswana's current tourism and environmental policies, Hambira told SciDev.Net....

An aerial view of the Okavango River delta in Botswana by Joachim Huber, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license