Lagos ranked 15th among cities facing risk of flood losses

Bola Olajuwon in the Guardian of Nigeria: By 2050, the world’s 136 largest coastal cities could risk combined yearly losses of $1 trillion (750 billion euros) from floods unless authorities in the affected areas drastically raise their defences.

 According to a study, which gave the warning Sunday, current losses are about $6 billion yearly, with four cities –Miami, New York and New Orleans in the United States and Guangzhou in China – incurring 43 per cent of the costs.

 However, Lagos is ranked 15th among top 20 cities in terms of population exposed to coastal flooding in the 2070s, including both climate change and socio-economic change. The current exposed population is 357,000 while estimated exposed population future will be 3,229,000.

Other African countries that also featured in the study are Alexander in Egypt (ranked 11th) and Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire 16th.  For population, 90 per cent  of the exposure in the 2070s is contained in 11countries (China, USA, India, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam and Bangladesh as well as Myanmar, Egypt, Nigeria and Indonesia).

The authors, World Bank economist, Stephane Hallegatte and colleagues, in the report published in the journal, Nature Climate Change, composed a loss risk scenario based on city population growth as well as different levels of sea level rise, protection upgrades and subsidence – the sinking of surface areas often linked to the extraction of oil or other ground resources....

Downtown Lagos, shot by Ulf Ryttgens, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 1.0 Generic license

Lagos develops climate change road map

Daily Trust (Nigeria): Lagos State has become the first state to develop state-level documents that would serve as a guide for adaptation to climate change, Nigerian Environmental Study Action Team (NEST) which is working to build response to climate change in the country has said.

A statement issued by NEST's Executive Director, Professor Chinedum Nwajiuba, and made available to Daily Trust, said under the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CCN) document; states have a role, and were being encouraged to develop their own documents to guide the implementation of their adaptation strategies to tackle climate change.

The document called Lagos State Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (LAS-CCAS) was developed by NEST for Lagos state. It aims to reinforce proactive actions already being taken by the state to address the challenge of climate change.

...The document seeks, among other issues, the allocation of resources beyond the benchmark of a developing country like Nigeria, to build response to climate change. "The cost of not taking any action is significantly higher", the document says. The document recommends comprehensive policies, programmes and measures to reduce the risk from, and build resilience to climate-related hazards....

Lagos policy framework to curb a changing climate

Femi Amele in Next (Nigeria): As Lagos State continues to be on the receiving end of adverse climate change effects through heavy downpours and an often unpredictable weather, experts on climate change met on Thursday, to review a policy draft that would address climate change issues. The 75-page document would, hopefully, address concerns ranging from mitigation, adaptation, and environmental issues in the state.

The discussion which was organized by the Lagos State Ministry of Environment; Human and Environmental Development Agenda (HEDA); and Policy Advocacy Project Partnership on Climate Change in Lagos State focused on exploring adaptation and disaster risk management, climate change mitigation and low carbon economy, and climate change governance. The policy framework extended into agriculture and food security; human settlement, security and health; and coastal and natural resources management.

…Sulaiman Arigbabu, head, Environment and Sustainable Development at HEDA, described the exercise as one in which stakeholders are attempting to demystify climate change to the populace and propose the avenues to engage the issues developing with an efficient framework. Mr Arigbabu stated that there is a need to develop proper policy documents and subject it to a validation exercise whereby Lagos State and relevant ministries, departments and agencies within the state can make proper input, so that it can be properly enriched.

….Among the issues highlighted in the document include: Adaptation and disaster risk management: That Lagos State could, by the year 2100, have experienced a ocean surge level rise of 2 metres, lost part of its inlands and incurred a financial loss estimated at about $500 billion according to details that emerged from its 2nd annual climate change summit. A condition that can be averted if, according to the policy draft, challenges such as lack of resources to improve climate and weather observations, data collection, vulnerability and adaption assessments; analysis of potential climate change impacts; and gaps in awareness and understanding of risks are effectively curbed….

The Atlantic coastline of Lagos, by Contimm

Is Lagos prepared for the coming deluge?

Allwell Okpi in 234Next.com: …Though flooding is not new in Lagos, the experience this year is about the worst in the history of the state. It has been blamed on relatively high amount of rainfall this year, the opening of Oyan Dam and more significantly, the rising level of the Atlantic Ocean. According to a study carried out in 2008 by some scientists, some parts of Lagos, especially the parts closer to the ocean will be under water in the next 50 years, considering the rate at which the Atlantic Ocean is rising.

While speaking at the launch of a Nigerian documentary on climate change, Stefan Cramer, Nigeria director for Germany's Heinrich Boll Foundation think-tank and an adviser to the Nigerian government on climate change, reportedly said the most scientists predict sea levels would rise by one meter over the next 50 years or so. Considering that most parts of the state are less than two metres below sea level this poses danger for the megacity. "In 50 years with a one-meter sea level rise, two million or three million people would be homeless. By the end of the century we would have two meters and by that stage Lagos is gone as we know it," Mr Cramer told Reuters.

… All the circumstances surrounding the flooding in Lagos point to the gradual rise on the Atlantic Ocean. The management of Ogun-Osun River Basin Development Authority, the operators of the Oyan Dam on Thursday said the flood was caused by sea level rise and not the release of water from the dam. Rasak Jimoh, Managing director of the agency said the affected area is a flood plain which is directly under the influence of back flow from the Lagos Lagoon, so as the Atlantic Ocean is rising, it is causing the Lagos Lagoon to overflow on its flood plain.

….According to Stephen Olaleye, a hydrogeologist, the problem is that these affected communities were built on floodplains against general environment regulations. "Generally, it is not proper to build residences on plains. It's a natural thing. Flood plains are regularly flooded when there is increase in the volume of water in ocean or river or in this case the Lagoon. But another problem is that buildings in such areas are at risk of collapse because the likelihood is that their foundation will be below the water table and that is danger in a long run," he said….

A market in Lagos, shot by Zouzou Wizman, Wikimedia Commons via Flickr, under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license

Streamlining Lagos laws to address climate impacts

Michael Simire in AllAfrica.com, via the Daily Independent (Nigeria): Because of its susceptibility to climate change effects, Lagos should fashion relevant laws and policies which could find ready models in the 2008 Climate Change Act of the United Kingdom and the 2009 Climate Change Act of The Philippines. The laws must be sufficiently balanced in protecting the short term competitiveness while harnessing opportunities.

This call forms the fulcrum of a package of recommendations put forward by participants at a recent forum wherein officials of ministries, departments and agencies, as well as academics, representatives of civil society and media explored the status of policies, programmes and research on climate change in the state.

The event was organised by Lagos State Ministry of the Environment in collaboration with Policy Advocacy Project Partnership on Climate Change in Lagos State Participants described climate change as a major threat to the state's socio-economic stability, requiring concerted collaborations between governments and non-state actors with other stakeholders in the civil society.

It was observed that although Lagos State has been forthcoming in striving towards evolving mitigation and adaptation strategies, a lot still needed to be done by reviewing existing laws as well as reforming institutions to keep track with the challenges posed by mitigation and adaptation. In particular, inter-ministerial coordination is urgently required to make for optimum result, the gathering noted….

That's the Lagos flag, rendered by Lephilippe, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 License

Scientists worry over effects of climate change on Lagos

Olayinka Latona in AllAfrica.com, via the Vanguard (Nigeria): Scientists have warned that the global climate change will have a strong impact on Nigeria particularly in the areas of agriculture, land use, energy, biodiversity, health amongst others. This was revealed during the 2nd Lagos State summit on climate change with the theme "Trans-Boundary Effect of Climate Change: Sharing Best Practices in Mitigation and Adaptation Measures."

Giving an overview, Prof. Felix Dayo a scientist and speaker at the Summit said inundation and warmer temperature will lead to higher incidences of proliferation of vector disease such as malaria and other water borne disease. He said such incidence will affect the health of the whole populace thereby creating room for higher cases of malaria in the country.

…Also speaking about the possibility of sea level rise in parts of Lagos State, he said: "We are scientists, not soothsayers we have given the possible scenario that can happen in the future .We can't predict the exact time frame that the scourge can occur, though there will be sea level rise but we can not tell you when it will occur. Between now and 2015 there are several scenarios that can likely rear up, such as the sea level rising in one to one meter, we have also shown different part of Lagos State at which level they are right now.

"There are some areas that are one to two metres higher than the sea level; some are two to two metres above and three, so if you have a sea level rise of one point four, definitely any place that is one metre will be inundated….

The Lagos State government was however advised to embark on building walls higher than two metres in coastal areas to protect the surge and also put in strategic places all materials that can be used to curb any occurrence in the future…

A map of the city of Lagos, by Rexparry sydney