Saturday, August 13, 2011

Climate change 'to increase malaria' in Indian Himalayas but reduce it elsewhere

T. V. Padma in Climate change is likely to spread malaria to new areas in the Indian Himalayas, and lengthen the periods in which the infection is spread in a number of districts, according to projections from malaria researchers in India. But the country's east coast could see fewer malaria cases by 2030, because of rising temperatures which affect mosquitoes' activity, they said.

The projections by the National Institute of Malaria Research (NIMR), Delhi, published in a special issue of Current Science on climate change yesterday (10 August), indicate that malaria could spread to districts in three states it is currently absent from — Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir — during the next 20 years.

In the eastern Himalayas, in north-eastern India, the window of malaria transmission would increase from 7–9 to 10–12 months in length. The region is humid and wet, with mild winters, which makes it "highly conducive for mosquito breeding, survival and transmission" of vector-borne diseases. But India's east coast would have reduced transmission, because of an increase in temperature, and the western regions would see a minimal impact, the analysis showed.

The study is one of several by the Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment programme at the Ministry of Environment and Forests. It used the regional climate modelling system developed by the Hadley Centre, United Kingdom, to analyse temperature and relative humidity scenarios across India, and mapped districts to show 'transmission windows' during which infection is spread....

Winged victory, or a mosquito, shot by Alvesgaspar, Wikimedia Commons, under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license

No comments: