The study titled "How Well do Coupled Models Simulate Today's Climate?" is due to be published this Friday in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. In the study, co-authors Thomas Reichler and Junsu Kim from the Department of Meteorology at the
To this end, they compare the output of the models against observations for present climate. The authors apply this method to about 50 different national and international models that were developed over the past two decades at major climate research centers in China, Russia, Australia, Canada, France, Korea, Great Britain, Germany, and the United States. Of course, also included is the very latest model generation that was used for the very recent (2007) report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
"Coupled models are becoming increasingly reliable tools for understanding climate and climate change, and the best models are now capable of simulating present-day climate with accuracy approaching conventional atmospheric observations," said Reichler. "We can now place a much higher level of confidence in model-based projections of climate change than in the past."…This figure shows the predicted distribution of temperature change due to global warming from Hadley Centre HadCM3 climate model . These changes are based on the IS92a ("business as usual") projections of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions during the next century, and essentially assume normal levels of economic growth and no significant steps are taken to combat global greenhouse gas emissions. Art by Robert Rohde, Wikimedia Commons